Does Ethnicity Moderate the Longitudinal Change in Adolescent Educational Expectations for University Study between ages 14-16? - Research Findings on Differences among White, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Black Caribbean Pupils

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Mimi

This quantitative cohort-panel study examines whether ethnicity moderates longitudinal change in adolescents’ educational expectations for university study between ages 14 and 16 in England. Using LSYPE waves 1–3 and an autoregressive longitudinal latent variable structural equation modeling approach, the analysis tests invariance, stationarity, and equilibrium assumptions within a multi-group framework. Results indicate significant differential expectation change across five ethnic groups, with moderation reflected by maternal ethnicity and both direct and indirect effects from age 14 through age 15 to age 16.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages24

Reading Time1 h 0 min

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Introduction

Adolescent Educational Aspirations, Expectations and Ethnicity

Longitudinal Change in Adolescent Expectations

Studying Educational Expectations in a Psychometric Framework

Does Ethnicity Moderate the Longitudinal Change in Adolescent Educational Expectations for University Study between ages 14-16? Understanding Differences among White, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Black Caribbean Pupils in England By Michael Tzanakis 􀀍 Previous research has established that adolescent educational expectations for university study differ widely across UK ethnic minorities. This quantitative study explores change in expectations over time and across UK ethnic groups in apsychometric framework using cohort panel data from waves 1-3 of the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE). An autoregressive longitudinal latent variable structural equation model addresses the above research questions and enables direct tests of the assumptions of invariance, stationarity and equilibrium typically only assumed to hold in similar multi-group comparisons. Results show that pupils’ educational expectations change significantly differently across ages 14-16 in the five ethnic groups reflecting moderation by maternal ethnicity. Expectations at age 14 exert important direct and indirect effects on expectations at age 16 via expectations at age 15. There is a general fall in expectations at age 15. Cross-group differences in latent means and intercepts suggest that in contrast to their white peers, minority pupils recover from this fall at age 16. Keywords: adolescent educational expectations, ethnicity, longitudinal modelling, structural equation modelling Introduction: Adolescent Educational Aspirations, Expectations and Ethnicity Educational aspirations and expectations are related but distinct concepts (Quaglia & Cobb, 1996). Aspirations are argued to describe unrealistic or idealistic perceptions of future education or occupation (Goyette, 2008) during a natural developmental stage (Gottfredson, 1996) . Expectations, on the other hand, are realistic assessments or predictions of future attainments, job category (Woelfel & Haller, 1971) and available resources (Thompson, Alexander & Entwisle, 1988) . This analysis is concerned with young people’s reported probability estimates for applying to university after year 11 and for being accepted if they applied. Pupils’ responses reflect therefore reality-based expectations rather than idealistic aspirations about post-16 university study. Accordingly, the term expectations is used in this study. 􀀍 Department of Quantitative Social Science, Institute of Education, University of London, UK. [https://doi.org/10.30958/aje.2-3-2](https://doi.org/10.30958/aje.2-3-2) doi=10.30958/aje.2-3-2 It is well established that young people from poor backgrounds tend to have lower educational expectations and performances than their better-off peers (Sewell, Hauser & Wolf, 1980) . More recent evidence has generally confirmed this association (Jerrim, 2011) . UK ethnic minority groups vary in their socio-economic status, but most are relatively disadvantaged compared to whites (the main exception to this is the Indians) . So, one might expect minority ethnic children to have lower educational expectations than whites, and to make less progress in school. Yet precisely the opposite is the case. This creates the paradox of high expectations among less advantaged ethnic minority youth in the UK. Previous research has studied the association of ethnicity and adolescent educational expectations and aspirations (Cooper, 2009; Strand, 2014; Strand & Winston, 2008; for a review see, Tzanakis, 2014) . However, the role of ethnicity in forming expectations is complex (Rutter & Tienda, 2005) . Rather than functioning as a simple exogenous predictor, ethnicity may function as a moderator e.g., a variable that impacts on the way a predictor affects an outcome (Hayes, 2013; Jose, 2013) . Further, recent research has shown that ethnicity moderates not only the way parental social position affects adolescent expectations longitudinally, but also the ways this influence is media

FAQs

What does the study investigate about ethnicity and educational expectations?

It examines whether ethnicity moderates how adolescents’ educational expectations for university study change over time between ages 14 and 16.

Which dataset and modeling approach are used?

The study uses cohort panel data from LSYPE waves 1–3 and an autoregressive longitudinal latent variable structural equation model.

What patterns in expectations are found across ages 14 to 16?

Expectations change significantly differently across ethnic groups, there is a general fall at age 15, and minority pupils recover from this fall by age 16.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Mimi