Do Middle Schoolers Undermatch in High School Choice - Evidence from a Merit-Based School Choice Admission System - Policy Brief September 2025

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Bintang

School choice is proposed to counter inequalities arising from residential segregation and geographically zoned assignments. This policy brief studies whether a form of “undermatch” occurs in Baltimore City when middle school students apply to academically selective high schools within a citywide choice system. It analyzes a merit-based admissions process using a middle-school composite score and examines whether access depends more on student preferences or student performance, against a background of selective schools with large quality gaps.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages7

Reading Time18 min

AccessFree to download

Overview

Background: High School Choice in Baltimore City

Results

Who Attends Selective High Schools?

Do Middle Schoolers Undermatch in High School Choice? Evidence from a Merit-Based School Choice Admission System Jane Arnold Lincove, University of Maryland, Baltimore County Policy Brief | September 2025 Overview School choice mechanisms are proposed as a remedy for inequalities created by the combination of residential segregation and geographically zoned school assignments. A common alternative to geographically zoned schools is merit-based admissions to academically selective high schools. Academically selective schools and programs are often referred to as “magnets” because they attract students from all over a school district instead of within a limited geographic zone by providing opportunities for enhanced or accelerated academics. Who actually gets to access these opportunities will depend on a combination of the criteria for admissions and which students choose to apply. The selection of admissions criteria is one critical factor in determining who gets to attend academically selective programs. While the objective may be to allocate seats to students who are most worthy and most likely to thrive in a competitive academic setting, it is a challenge to implement a selection process that offers equal opportunities to students of equal merit, without disadvantaging students due to contextual factors beyond their control, such as the quality of their middle school or their family’s access to additional educational resources. A second critical factor is student preferences towards academic selectivity. Studies of college applications have identified the prevalence of “undermatch” where highly qualified high school students forgo opportunities to attend elite universities in favor of less selective options. College undermatch is more likely to occur among historically underrepresented groups including Black and Hispanic students, students from low-income families, and first-generation college students. This is likely due to a combination of information asymmetries regarding college options, a lack of resources to attend private universities, and a preference for campuses with demographically similar peers. In this study, we investigate whether a similar form of undermatch occurs when middle schoolers apply to high schools in a citywide choice system. We focus our study in Baltimore City, where selective high school seats are allocated based on a single metric of middle school performance. In this context we ask whether access to academically selective high schools is driven by student preferences or student performance. Background: High School Choice in Baltimore City For several decades, Baltimore City high schools have reported low student proficiency rates and high dropout rates. Approximately 84% of local school-age children attend Baltimore City schools, which enrolls a population that is 70% Black, 20% Hispanic, and 7% White, with an economic disadvantage rate of 76% . In this context, four academically selective high schools attract the city’s most qualified students with accelerated academic programs. There is a large gap in school quality between selective campuses and other high schools. For example, selective schools report graduation and college-readiness rates of 85-98% in a system where only 67% of high school students reach graduation. Each selective school offers a unique set of advanced college prep options including the IB Diploma at Baltimore City College (City), Engineering and STEM programs at Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (Poly), Health Sciences at Paul Laurence Dunbar (Dunbar), and Biosciences at Western High School for Girls (Western). These four high schools have operated as academic selective programs for over a century, with admissions criteria based on merit exhibited in middle school. Since 2011, the four academically selective high schools have seated students based on an academic “composite score,” which is a combined measure of middle school performance that includes

FAQs

What problem does this policy brief address about school choice?

It examines whether school choice mechanisms can mitigate inequalities linked to residential segregation and zoned school assignments, particularly through access to academically selective high schools.

What is “undermatch” in this study’s context?

Undermatch refers to highly qualified students not taking up opportunities for selective options. The brief investigates whether a similar pattern occurs when middle schoolers apply within a citywide high school choice system.

How does Baltimore City’s admissions system select students for selective high schools?

Selective school seats are assigned using a single middle-school composite score (course grades, state exam scores, and attendance), and students rank up to five high school choices on one application.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Bintang