Disparities, Trends, and Predictions to 2040 in Gastrointestinal Cancer Incidence, Mortality in the United States

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Ophelia

Growing gastrointestinal cancers in the United States drive demand for deeper evidence on long-term incidence and mortality. The study analyzes trends and future projections for five major gastrointestinal cancers—colorectal, pancreatic, liver, stomach, and esophageal—using data from SEER, National Center for Health Statistics, and Global Burden of Diseases. An age-period-cohort Bayesian model projects rates to 2040 and highlights sex differences, state variability, and shifting racial patterns over 2000–2020.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages14

Reading Time35 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Background and rationale

Methods

Data sources

Modeling approach

Results

Incidence and mortality trends (2000–2020)

Projected changes to 2040

Discussion

Public health implications

ARTICLE 1367 | INTRODUCTION: Growing gastrointestinal cancers in the United States necessitate further research due to substantial healthcare and economic impacts. The aim of this study was to analyze trendsand future projections for
5 major gastrointestinal cancers (colorectal, pancreatic, liver, stomach, and esophageal) .
METHODS: Data were sourced from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database; National Center for
Health Statistics; and Global Burden of Diseases databases. An age-period-cohort model using the Bayesian Information Criterion method was applied to project incidence and mortality rates to 2040 .
RESULTS: Men consistently exhibited higher incidence and mortality rates across all gastrointestinal cancers, with
significant variation across the 51 US states. From 2000 to 2020, colorectal cancer incidence and mortality rates declined across all racial groups, except for the incidence rates of American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) men, Hispanic men, and Hispanic women, which remained stable. Pancreatic cancer incidence increased across all groups except for AIAN men, while mortality rates rose only for White men and Hispanic women. Liver cancer incidence rose among AIAN men and White, AIAN, and Hispanic women, while mortality rates declined for most groups. Stomach cancer incidence and mortality either declined or stabilized, and esophageal cancer rates showed a general decline. By2040, increases in incidence and mortality are projected for most gastrointestinal cancers, particularly in men.
DISCUSSION: Despite varied trends over the past 2 decades, an overall increase in gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates is anticipated in the next 20 years in the United States, underscoring the need for effective prevention and intervention strategies.
KEYWORDS: gastrointestinal cancer; incidence; mortality; trend; prediction
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL accompanies this paper at [http://links.lww.com/AJG/D465](http://links.lww.com/AJG/D465) ; [http://links.lww.com/AJG/D466](http://links.lww.com/AJG/D466); [http://links.lww.com/AJG/D467](http://links.lww.com/AJG/D467); [http://links](http://links).
[lww.com/AJG/D468](lww.com/AJG/D468); [http://links.lww.com/AJG/D469](http://links.lww.com/AJG/D469) ; [http://links.lww.com/AJG/D470](http://links.lww.com/AJG/D470) ; [http://links.lww.com/AJG/D471](http://links.lww.com/AJG/D471) | | | --- | --- | | Am J Gastroenterol 2025;120:1367–1380. [https://doi.org/10.14309/ajg.0000000000003198](https://doi.org/10.14309/ajg.0000000000003198) | | | INTRODUCTION
Gastrointestinal malignant tumors refer to a group of cancers originating from the digestive system, including the stomach, esophagus, pancreas, hepatobiliary duct, large intestine, and small intestine, which are among the most common cancers in humans (1) . Approximately 343,040 newly diagnosed gastrointestinal cancer cases and 171,920 deaths are expected to occur in 2022 in the United States, accounting for 18% of all cancer | cases and 28% of all cancer deaths in the country (2) . Given the growth and aging of the population, it is anticipated that these numbers will continue to rise, exerting even greater pressure on an already overburdened health care system and imposing a staggering economic burden (3) . Understanding the patterns and projected trends of gastrointestinal cancers is crucial for evaluating the eﬀectiveness of preventive measures implemented over the past decades, formulating future public health | Disparities, Trends, and Predictions to 2040 in Gastrointestinal Cancer Incidence, Mortality in the United States Ying Huang, MD1, Hongbo Huang, MD1, Tingting Wei, MD1, Aijie Zhang, MD2, Heng Zhang, MD1, Ze Zhang, MD1, Yijing Xu, MD1 , Ruiyao Wang, MD3, Ningyi Wan, MD4, Xiaohan Li, MD5, Jiaying Li, MD1, Yunhai Li, PhD 1 and Fan Li, PhD1 GENERAL GI 1Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chon

FAQs

What was the purpose of the study on gastrointestinal cancers?

To analyze historical trends and forecast future incidence and mortality through 2040 for five major gastrointestinal cancer types in the United States.

Which data sources and modeling method were used?

Incidence and mortality data came from SEER, National Center for Health Statistics, and Global Burden of Diseases, with an age-period-cohort Bayesian model using the Bayesian Information Criterion for projections.

What overall trend is projected for gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality by 2040?

An overall increase in incidence and mortality is anticipated in the next 20 years, particularly for men, despite variations in past decades.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Ophelia