Developing and validating a prognostic model - a prognostic model for predicting prognosis among synchronous colorectal cancers patients using combined log odds ratio of positive lymph nodes: a SEER database study

Sep 21, 2026

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Aim of the study is to identify prognostic risk factors for synchronous colorectal cancer and to build and validate a functional nomogram that predicts cancer-specific survival. Synchronous colorectal cancer cases were retrospectively collected from the SEER database, then split into training and internal validation sets, with an additional external cohort drawn from the authors’ hospital. Prognostic variables were selected using univariate and multivariate Cox regression, and nomogram discrimination and calibration were evaluated, including bootstrap verification and external validation. Results show strong model performance.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages18

Reading Time45 min

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Abstract

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Background

Epidemiology and definition

Diagnostic criteria

Clinical distinctions and survival context

Rationale for the study

Ma etal. BMCGastroenterology (2024) 24:427 [https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-024-03393-7](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-024-03393-7) BMC Gastroenterology RESEARCH Open Access Developing and validation a prognostic model for predicting prognosis among synchronous colorectal cancers patients using combined log odds ratio of positive lymph nodes: a SEER database study Yue Ma 1, Bangquan Chen2,3,4,5, Yayan Fu2,3,4,5, Jun Ren3,4,5 and Daorong Wang 1* Abstract Purpose The aim of the study is to identify risk factors for the prognosis and survival of synchronous colorectal cancer and to create and validate a functional Nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in patients with synchronous colorectal cancer. Methods Synchronous colorectal cancers cases were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database retrospectively, then they were randomly divided into training (n = 3371) and internal validation (n = 1440) sets, and a set of 100 patients from our group was used as external validation. Risk factors for synchronous colorectal cancer were determined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and two Nomograms were established to forecast the overall survival and cancer-specific survival, respectively. We assessed the Nomogram performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. Bootstrap resampling was used as an internal verification method, and we select external data from our hospital as independent validation sets. Results Two Nomograms are established to predict the overall survival and cancer-specific survival. In OS Nomogram, sex, age, marital status, ttumor pathological grade, AJCC TNM stage, preoperative serum CEA level, LODDS, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were determined as prognostic factors. In CSS Nomogram, age and marital status, AJCC TNM stage, tumor pathological grade, preoperative serum CEA level, LODDS, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were determined as prognostic factors.The C-indexes for the forecast of overall survival were 0 . 70, and the C-index was 0.68 for the training and internal validation cohort, respectively. The C-indexes for the forecast of cancer-specific survival were 0 . 75, and the C-index was 0.74 for the training and internal validation cohort, respectively. The Nomogram calibration curves showed no significant deviation from the reference line, indicating a good level of calibration. Both C-index and calibration curves indicated noticeable performance of newly established Nomograms. *Correspondence: DaorongWang [wdaorong666@sina.com](wdaorong666@sina.com) Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit [http://creati](http://creati)[vecommons.org/l](vecommons.org/l)icenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Ma et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:427 Page 2 of 18 Conclusions Those Nomograms with risk rating system can identify high risk patients who require more aggressive therapeutic intervention and longer and more frequent follow-up scheme

FAQs

What was the main goal of this study on synchronous colorectal cancer?

To identify risk factors for prognosis and to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in patients with synchronous colorectal cancer.

How were patients and datasets organized for model development and validation?

Cases were retrieved retrospectively from the SEER database and randomly divided into training and internal validation sets, while an external validation cohort was obtained from the authors’ hospital.

Which model features were identified as prognostic factors in the overall survival and cancer-specific survival nomograms?

For overall survival, factors included sex, age, marital status, tumor pathological grade, AJCC TNM stage, preoperative serum CEA, LODDS, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. For cancer-specific survival, age and marital status, AJCC TNM stage, tumor pathological grade, preoperative serum CEA, LODDS, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were identified.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Quinn