民主共和国东帝汶 - 联合世界银行-IMF 债务可持续性分析

Jul 19, 2026

Upload by Finn

This joint World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis assesses Timor-Leste’s risk of overall and external debt distress as moderate, while noting that a mechanical high-risk rating would arise under baseline breaches of indicative thresholds. Judgment is applied because the Petroleum Fund is large relative to projected debt and provides liquid, accessible mitigation over the next decade. Long-term depletion is projected for 2039, but alternative scenarios show that fiscal consolidation and structural reforms can preserve both fiscal and debt sustainability.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages25

Reading Time1 h 3 min

风险评估概览

债务困境风险等级与判断运用

宏观与基准情景下的指标表现

外债与债务服务指标触发阈值

政府债务覆盖范围与定义

公开与或有负债压力测试设置

石油基金缓释因素与长期压力

资产覆盖、递减路径与替代方案

发展挑战与财政依赖结构

社会经济与基础设施约束

Public Disclosure Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Approved by: Lalita Moorty and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Ranil Salgado and Fabian Bornhorst (IMF) . Prepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) . | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF TIMOR-LESTE<br>JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS | | | --- | --- | | Risk of external debt distress | Moderate | | Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate | | Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks | | Application of judgment | Yes. Petroleum sovereign wealth fund is a strong mitigating factor for the country’s debt sustainability in the next 10 years. | Timor-Leste remains at moderate risk of overall and external debt distress, with application of judgement, unchanged from the 2022 Article IV debt sustainability analysis. The present value of the external debt-to-exports ratio and the debt service-to-exports ratio under the baseline are projected to breach their respective indicative thresholds in the medium term, triggering a mechanical rating of high risk of overall and external debt distress. In the medium term, however, the Petroleum Fund is large relative to projected debt levels and debt service requirements, and its assets are liquid and accessible, thus acting as a mitigating factor, prompting the use of judgement to upgrade the risk assessment. Long-term risks to debt sustainability have moderated compared to the 2022 Article IV debt sustainability analysis, with smaller fiscal deficits in 2023-25 delaying the depletion of the Petroleum Fund. Staff now projects that the Petroleum Fund, which is the main source of funding of fiscal deficits, will be depleted in 2039, triggering a breach of all debt indicators towards the end of the twenty-year projection horizon. However, there is time to adopt necessary policy adjustments—staff’s alternative scenario illustrates how fiscal consolidation and structural reforms can ensure both fiscal and debt sustainability in the long term. 1. The coverage of public sector debt used in this report is public and publicly guaranteed debt. Timor-Leste’s public and publicly guaranteed external debt is held entirely by the central government. The coverage of public sector debt includes state-owned enterprise debt. Under the Public Debt Regime Law, state-owned enterprises are not allowed to borrow for themselves and can only obtain financing via on-lending from the Ministry of Finance.1 Currently, there are no guarantees granted by the state to stateowned enterprises. The Social Security Fund does not issue debt on its own. The public sector only borrows externally, given a lack of domestic financing sources. The debt definition of the debt sustainability analysis is currency-based, and the legal tender is the U. S. dollar. | | | --- | | | 2. The contingent liability stress test settings were customized (Text Table 2) . The default shock to contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises debt and Public Private Partnerships is reduced to zero. This is because the former is already included in the baseline public debt, and the latter is negligible (see ¶1) . | | | --- | | | 3. Timor-Leste’s net public asset position is currently strong due to oil-related savings accumulated in Petroleum Fund assets and low levels of public debt. 1According to the Public Debt Regime Law No. 13/2011, the Government of Timor-Leste, in particular the Ministry of Finance, is the only entity that may engage in borrowing, motivated by financing needs generated by the need to execute the State’s priority tasks relating to the building of strategic infrastructure for the country’s development . • The Petroleum Fund balance at end-2022 stood at $17.4 billion (1,039 percent of non-oil GDP), covering 187 months of prospective goods and services imports. The Petroleum Fund balance decreased by $2.4 billion in 2022 as unfavorable market revaluations ($-2.4 billion

FAQs

为什么评估结果仍为中等风险而非机械性高风险？

基准情景下外债与债务服务对出口的指标可能在中期触发阈值，按机械规则会导致高风险评级。但由于石油主权财富基金规模较大、资产流动且可获取，形成了强缓释因素，因此使用判断将风险升级后的评估维持为中等风险。

石油基金在长期债务可持续性中将面临什么关键节点？

工作人员预计石油基金将在2039年前后耗尽，届时会触及所有债务指标，并使债务相关指标在20年预测期后段出现不利突破。

报告如何定义并覆盖本次债务可持续性分析中的公共部门债务？

本报告采用以货币为基础的债务定义，法律法定货币为美元。覆盖包括公共部门的公开及公开担保债务，且外债由中央政府持有；覆盖还包含国有企业债务，但国有企业不能自行借款，只能通过财政部转贷融资。

Jul 19, 2026

Upload by Finn