Defining and Forecasting Full Truckload Market Cycles - Capstone Thesis

Sep 17, 2026

Uploaded by Levi

The U.S. full dry-van truckload (FTL) industry functions as a foundational channel for moving goods nationwide, and it was deregulated after the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, making it increasingly shaped by market dynamics. Since 2012, three major market cycles have emerged from shocks: Hours of Service changes (2013), ELD mandates (2016), and COVID-19 (2020). The study develops an industry-driven four-phase cycle definition, then forecasts upcoming two-year spot and contract rates using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) time-series econometric model.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages74

Reading Time3 h 6 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Problem Statement

State of the Practice

Current Industry Practices

Current Challenges

Methodology

Data Exploration

Deriving Variables from Interviews and Survey

Variable Correlation

Cycle Definition

Defining and Forecasting Full Truckload Market Cycles by Sarah Roman Supply Chain and Information Systems, B.S., The Pennsylvania State University, 2020 and Wirinratch Kirirak Economics, B.E., Thammasat University, 2022 SUBMITTED TO THE PROGRAM IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF APPLIED SCIENCE IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT AT THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 2025 © 2025 Sarah Roman and Wirinratch Kiriak as submitted to registrar. All rights reserved. The authors hereby grant to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this capstone document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author: Department of Supply Chain Management May 9, 2025 Signature of Author: Department of Supply Chain Management May 9, 2025 Certified by: Dr. Chris Caplice Executive Director of MIT CTL Capstone Advisor Certified by: Dr. Angela Acocella Research Scientist Capstone Advisor Accepted by: Prof. Yossi Sheffi Director, Center for Transportation and Logistics Elisha Gray II Professor of Engineering Systems Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering Defining and Forecasting Full Truckload Market Cycles by Sarah Roman and Wirinratch Kirirak Submitted to the Program in Supply Chain Management on May 9, 2025 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Applied Science in Supply Chain Management ABSTRACT The U.S. full dry-van truckload (FTL) industry serves as a primary channel through which goods move across the country, forming the essential backbone for all product categories and commodity groups. Following the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, the truckload industry was deregulated and became increasingly influenced by market dynamics. Since 2012, three distinct market cycles have been observed, each initiated by a significant shock or catalyst. These include the implementation of new Hours of Service regulations in 2013, the introduction of Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandates in 2016, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. While practitioners of the trucking industry have long attempted to predict these cycles, an industry-driven definition and standardized way of predicting upcoming cycles has yet to be written. This research first defines an industry-driven, four-phase definition of the truckload market cycle using insights from expert interviews and a widespread survey. Driven by these insights, this study uses time-series econometric model which is Vector Autoregression (VAR) to predict the upcoming two years of spot and contract rates based on independent variables. In conclusion, our findings identify the key variables that most significantly influence truckload market cycle projections, establish the optimal lag structure, and provide forecasts in both the short-term and long-term. Capstone Advisor: Dr. Chris Caplice Title: Executive Director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Transportation & Logistics (CTL) Capstone Advisor: Dr. Angela Acocella Title: Research Scientist ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We are grateful to our faculty advisors, Dr. Chris Caplice and Dr. Angi Acocella, for their unwavering support and guidance. We extend our sincere appreciation to our sponsor company, C.H. Robinson, for their partnership, provision of data, and insightful recommendations that shaped the direction of this work. Finally, we thank the industry practitioners who contributed their time and expertise to ensure this research provides meaningful value to the broader trucking industry. Sarah extends her heartfelt gratitude to her family, friends, fiancé , and puppies for their unwavering support, encouragement, and presence throughout the course of this project. She also extends her genuine gratitude to Wirinratch for ten unforgettable months filled with laughter, a few tears, unw

FAQs

What market-cycle shocks are used to frame full truckload cycles in this research?

The cycles are linked to Hours of Service regulations in 2013, Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandates in 2016, and the COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020.

How does the study define a full truckload market cycle?

It builds an industry-driven, four-phase cycle definition using insights from expert interviews and a widespread survey.

What method forecasts the next two years of spot and contract rates?

The study uses a Vector Autoregression (VAR) time-series econometric model with independent variables to predict the upcoming two-year rates.

Sep 17, 2026

Uploaded by Levi