Côte d’Ivoire: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate risk - public debt distress assessment

Jul 19, 2026

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Côte d’Ivoire’s overall and external public debt remain at moderate risk of debt distress. After a three-year hiatus, the country returned to international capital markets and used proceeds to improve short-term maturities through a debt management operation (DMO), supporting lower external debt liquidity ratios. External debt service-to-revenue breaches the threshold once in 2024, mainly linked to a January 2024 Eurobond issuance, while baseline indicators stay below thresholds. Stress tests show vulnerability, especially to export shocks, with limited space to absorb adverse events. The LIC-DSF framework is applied using a composite indicator of 2.94, and contingent liabilities—particularly non-guaranteed SOE debt—are treated as shocks.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages26

Reading Time1 h 6 min

Risk of debt distress

External debt distress risk rating

Baseline indicators and threshold breaches

Shock sensitivity and stress tests

Exports shock impact

Natural disaster shock

Framework and coverage assumptions

LIC-DSF composite indicator

Public debt coverage and treatment of SOE debt

Data improvement and reform actions

Debt transparency and monitoring

Fiscal consolidation and projections

Debt management reforms

Public Disclosure Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Approved by: Manuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) and Montfort Mlachila and Boileau Loko (IMF) . Prepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) . | COTE D’IVOIRE: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS | | | --- | --- | | Risk of external debt distress | Moderate | | Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate | | Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks | | Application of judgment | No | Côte d’Ivoire’s overall and external public debt remain at moderate risk of debt distress. Côte d’Ivoire successfully returned to international capital markets after a 3-year hiatus and used the proceeds to improve their short-term maturities through a debt management operation (DMO) . Compared to the last DSA, the debt sustainability has improved as evidenced by lower debt ratios, especially external debt liquidity ratios. The mechanical risk rating shows a moderate risk of debt distress unlike the previous DSA assessed at moderate risk only when judgement was applied. The external debt service-to-revenue indicator breaches the threshold once, in 2024 mainly owing to the DMO financed by the January 2024 Eurobond issuance. The ratio remains below the threshold during the remainder of the projection period as do all other projected external debt burden indicators under the baseline. All indicators are susceptible to breaches under stress scenarios, the most extreme of which involves a shock to exports. The PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio is below its threshold, but exceeds it in most stress scenarios , the most extreme of which involves the shock to exports. A customized stress test shows that the natural disaster shock is the most extreme shock of public debt The space to absorb shocks remains limited. 1 Under the revised Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries, Côte d’Ivoire’s Composite Indicator (CI) is 2.94 based on the October 2023 WEO and the 2022 CPIA, corresponding to a medium debt carrying capacity. 1. Public debt covers both the debt of the central government, as well asthe guarantees provided by the central government, including those guarantees that pertain to state-owned enterprise (SOE) debt (Text Table 1) . The DSA classifies external and domestic debt based on the currency criterion, given data constraints that prevent the use of the residency criterion.2 The debt of local governments is excluded from the DSA coverage. Local governments are authorized to borrow within limits and under conditions set by decree. There is no information available on this debt. On SOE debt, the authorities have continued to improve debt coverage and monitoring in recent years. At end-2023, both SOE guaranteed and non-guaranteed commercial debt amounted to 1 percent of GDP. In the context of the current DSA, the following approach is taken: • All guaranteed SOE debt and on-lent debt is included in the debt stock in the baseline.3 • Non-guaranteed SOE debt is captured as a contingent liability shock—this shock is set at 1 percent of GDP.4 | | | --- | | Subsectors of the public sector Central government State and local government Other elements in the general government o/w: Social security fund o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) Non-guaranteed SOE debt Check box 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 X X X X | 2. Efforts to increase the government’s capacity to record and monitor public debt and contingent liabilities continue. The authorities are committed to further enhancing data coverage of SOEsin the DSA baseline, including consolidating the general government fiscal accounts with the financial statements of the SOEs (on revenue, expenditure, and financing) and corresponding 20-year projecti

FAQs

What is the overall and external risk rating for Côte d’Ivoire’s debt distress?

Both the overall risk of debt distress and the risk of external debt distress are rated as moderate.

Why does the external debt service-to-revenue indicator breach the threshold in 2024?

The breach occurs once in 2024, mainly due to the DMO financed by the January 2024 Eurobond issuance.

Which stress scenario is identified as the most extreme and why?

A customized stress test indicates the natural disaster shock is the most extreme shock for public debt, while broader stress scenarios—especially those involving exports shocks—can also drive breaches.

How does the analysis handle SOE debt and contingent liabilities?

Guaranteed SOE debt and on-lent debt are included in the baseline debt stock, while non-guaranteed SOE debt is modeled as a contingent liability shock set at 1 percent of GDP.

Jul 19, 2026

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