Congestion and Diversification of Third-Party Mediation in Sudan and South Sudan: First Look at Some Longer-Term Trends

Jul 6, 2026

This report uses a preliminary dataset on third-party mediation in Sudan and South Sudan (1988–2022) to assess how the rising presence of non-Western powers relates to mediation involvement and influence in peace processes. Drawing on and further disaggregating existing datasets, it clarifies how different international actors interpret mediation. Findings indicate mediation remains primarily led by neighbouring states and regional organisations, while out-of-region actors rarely lead directly and more often support regional initiatives.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages62

Reading Time2 h 36 min

Key Findings

Introduction

Datasets on Mediation: What’s Out There

Mediation in Sudan and South Sudan: A Disaggregated Approach

Conclusions

GLOBAL TRANSITIONS SERIES Congestion and Diversification of Third-Party Mediation in Sudan and South Sudan: First Look at some Longer-Term Trends Mateja Peter and Kasia Houghton The Global Transitions Series looks at fragmentations in the global order and how these impact peace and transition settlements. It explores why and how different third-party actors – state, intergovernmental, and non-governmental – intervene in conflicts, and how they see themselves contributing to reduction of conflict and risks of conflict relapse. The series critically assesses the growth and diversification of global and regional responses to contemporary conflicts. It also asks how local actors are navigating this multiplicity of mediators and peacebuilders and how this is shaping conflict outcomes and post-conflict governance. Authors: Mateja Peter and Kasia Houghton Series Editor: Mateja Peter Managing Editor: Mia Furlong PeaceRep: The Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform School of Law, Old College, The University of Edinburgh South Bridge, Edinburgh EH8 9YL Tel. +44 (0)131 651 4566 Fax. +44 (0)131 650 2005 E-mail: [peacerep@ed.ac.uk](peacerep@ed.ac.uk) [PeaceRep.org](PeaceRep.org) Twitter: @Peace_Rep_ Facebook: [https://www.facebook.com/PeaceRepResearch](https://www.facebook.com/PeaceRepResearch) LinkedIn: [https://www.linkedin.com/company/peacerep/](https://www.linkedin.com/company/peacerep/) Instagram: [https://www.instagram.com/peace_rep_/](https://www.instagram.com/peace_rep_/) This research is supported by the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform (PeaceRep), funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) for the benefit of developing countries. The information and views set out in this publication are those of the authors. Nothing herein constitutes the views of FCDO. Any use of this work should acknowledge the authors and the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform. The authors would like to thank Sanja Badanjak, Marcel Plichta, and Jan Pospisil for their comments on the report. Mateja Peter is a Lecturer in International Relations at University of St Andrews, where she directs the Centre for Global Law and Governance. She acts as the research lead of the PeaceRep Global Fragmentation project. Kasia Houghton is an ESRC Doctoral Researcher in International Relations at the University of St Andrews, researching Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict. She is a researcher on the PeaceRep Global Fragmentation project, working on the third-party mediation database. Cover images: All images may be subject to copyright. Getty Images and UNMISS/Flickr. ©2022 Contents Abstract 01 | Key Findings | 02 | | --- | --- | | Introduction | 04 | | Datasets on Mediation:<br>What’s Out There | 07 | | Mediation in Sudan and South Sudan: A Disaggregated Approach | 11 | | Conclusions | 44 | 01 // Congestion and Diversification of Third-Party Mediation in Sudan and South Sudan: First Look at some Longer-Term Trends Abstract This report draws from a preliminary dataset on third-party mediation in Sudan and South Sudan (1988-2022) to elucidate if and how the growing presence of non-Western powers – especially out-of-region ones – indicates their greater involvement in peace processes and mediation. The dataset builds on existing datasets, but further disaggregates activities of international actors, accounting for increasingly divergent understandings of mediation. Our analysis of the preliminary dataset confirmed some findings in the qualitative literature, showing that conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan have been, and remain to this day, primarily a domain of mediation efforts by neighbouring states and regional organisations. The data also questions some other claims, most notably about the wide-reaching involvement of out-of-region non-Western actors, especially the role of China and the Gulf states, in mediation processes in the Horn of Africa. While

FAQs

What dataset does the report use to study third-party mediation?

The report draws on a preliminary dataset of third-party mediation in Sudan and South Sudan covering 1988–2022, built from existing datasets and further disaggregated for international actors’ activities.

What do the findings suggest about non-Western powers’ roles in mediation?

Despite growing prominence, non-Western actors out of region typically do not lead mediation efforts themselves and most often support regional initiatives alongside Western powers.

How have mediation efforts changed over the last decade?

The report identifies both congestion—more mediation efforts and more actors—and increasing diversification of mediators in the more recent period, including more ad hoc and sporadic mediation after 2019 in Sudan.

Jul 6, 2026

Upload by Olivia Brown