Commonwealllh - LXXVII·No.22 - May 30,1983 - FRIDAY FLASHES—May 20

Sep 29, 2026

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Commonwealllh LXXVII·No.22 (May 30,1983) presents dated club programming and commentary, including “The Economic and Financial Outlook” with analysis of global recovery and U.S. macroeconomic dynamics. It links late-70s inflation and the subsequent recession to restrictive monetary policy, fiscal deficits, and adjustment to long-term structural change. The discussion highlights credit pressures under high interest rates and the dollar’s effect on exports and import-competing industries, then notes a modest business improvement indicated by leading economic indicators.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages9

Reading Time23 min

AccessFree to download

JUNE 3 - Friday Flashes—May 20

Economic and Financial Outlook

JUNE 9 - Current Affairs Forum

Campaign Financing and Political Action Committees

52nd Annual Literature Medal Awards Luncheon

Commonwealllh LXXVII·No.22 May 30,1983 | JUNE 3 | "The Economic and
Financial Outlook”
FRIDAY FLASHES—May 20
Leland S.Prussia
Chairman of the Board
Bank of America
Global recovery will depend largely on
our own domestic economy and its
recovery.The United States accounts for
25 percent of the total national product of
the world economy,about two-thirds of
the global official foreign exchange re-
serves are held in U.S.dollars and about
three-fourths of all Euromarket loans
are denominated in U.S.dollars.
The inflationary boom of the late 70s
was followed by the worst recession of the
past generation.The underlying causes
of it were a restrictive monetary policy
and a fiscal policy prepared to tolerate
very large deficits.This was compounded
by serious difficulties in trying to adjust
to long-term structural changes in our
economy.
As a result,credit pressures became
enormous under a regime of very high
interest rates,while the dollar became
vastly over-valued and thereby under-
mined both the export trade and many
import-competing domestic industries.
At the same time the Federal Reserve
applied brakes to monetary policy,the
administration pushed the most massive
tax cuts in history and a huge multi-year
increase in military spending through
Congress.Trying to balance the budget
under these circumstances was like trying
to square the circle.
We can expect a series of budget defi-
cits in the $200 billion range for some
years unless we take a significantly dif-
ferent approach to managing fiscal affairs.
Modest Improvement
However,with the lifting of at least
some of these policy constraints,we have
seen a decided improvement in the busi-
ness scene.The index of leading economic
indicators has been rising for seven
months,presaging continued improve-
ment in the months to come;the Dow
Continued on page 157 | JUNE 9
Current
Affairs
Forum
Rollin Post
Political Specialist
KRON-TV
"Campaign
Financing and
The Merits of
Political Action
Committees'”
Thursday,4:30—6:00 p.m.
Commonwealth Club office,Arcade.
$2:00 charge incudes wine reception,
4:30—5:00 p.m.Call(415)362-4903 for
reservations.
Current Affairs Forum offers yet an-
other view of campaign financing.Top
political analyst,Rollin Post,has closely
followed our elected officials and their
handling of important political issues."I
want viewers to understand what the
politicians are doing,and why,"Post ha
commented.
Recently,Post received the Broadcast
Preceptor Award for his outstanding con
tribution to broadcasting.
Carl E.Rosenfeld
William T.O'Leary | | --- | --- | --- | | 52nd Annual
Literature
Medal Awards
Luncheon
Dr.William
J.Bennett
Chairman
National Endowment for the
Humanities
“The Written Word
as Vocation”
Noon,Friday
Gold Ballroom,Sheraton Palace Hotel
Advance Tickets—$12 for members,$15
for guests.Please see Advance Ticket Sale
Procedure,back page,for ticket
reservation information.
Literature extends and refines the hu-
manities'tradition through new ideas
and works.This importance in mind,the
Commonwealth Club of California is
pleased to announce the 1982 Literature
Auards.
The National Endowment for the Hu-
manities provides support for scholar-
ships,education and public actitivies in
the Humanties.Creating a more suppor-
tive cimate for those working in that
field,it can provide a framework for a
human public policy.
Beverly Hayon
Quarterly Chairman | | | s - INSIDE:Is the Economy Recovering?;156-157.

FAQs

What major economic factors does the document cite for the late-70s inflation and early-80s recession?

It cites restrictive monetary policy and a fiscal approach that tolerated very large deficits, compounded by difficulties adjusting to long-term structural changes.

How does the document describe the effect of high interest rates and the dollar on the U.S. economy?

It says credit pressures became enormous under very high interest rates and that an over-valued dollar undermined export trade and import-competing industries.

What improvement does the document note in the business scene?

It reports rising leading economic indicators for seven months, suggesting continued improvement in the coming months.

Sep 29, 2026

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