College Board Research Statistical Report 2014 - Updated Correlations and Expectancy Tables for AP European History and AP World History

Sep 20, 2026

Uploaded by Aladdin

Updated correlations and expectancy tables for AP European History and AP World History were created to reflect students who take the PSAT/NMSQT in ninth grade and later earn AP exam experience in 10th grade, alongside the grade levels used in prior AP Potential predictions. Analyses used descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, and logistic regressions across ninth-, 10th-, and 11th-grade PSAT/NMSQT examinees, producing expectancy tables (Tables 3 and 4) mapping PSAT/NMSQT cut scores to AP success probabilities (score 3+ and 4+).

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages4

Reading Time10 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Sample

Data Analyses

Results

Table 1. AP Exam and PSAT/NMSQT Performance for Ninth-Grade PSAT/NMSQT Examinees

Table 2. Correlations Between PSAT/NMSQT Scores and AP Exam Scores

Logistic Regressions and Expectancy Tables (Tables 3 and 4)

RESEARCH By Xiuyuan Zhang, Priyank Patel, and Maureen Ewing COLLEGE BOARD RESEARCH Statistical Report 2014 1 Introduction Historically, AP Potential™ correlations and expectancy tables have been based on 10th-and 11th-grade PSAT/NMSQT® examinees and 11th-and 12th-grade AP® examinees for all subjects (Zhang, Patel, & Ewing, 2014; Ewing, Camara, & Millsap, 2006; Camara & Millsap, 1998) . However, a large number of students take AP European History and AP World History Exams in 10th grade. The purpose of this addendum is to provide updated correlations and expectancy tables for AP European History and AP World History Exam scores that incorporate into the analyses students who took the PSAT/NMSQT in ninth grade and the AP Exam in 10th grade along with the other grade levels that have always formed the basis for the AP Potential predictions. Sample Analyses included students who took the PSAT/NMSQT in the fall of 2007 and 2008 and AP European History and AP World History Exams the following academic year in the spring of 2009 and 2010. For AP World History, 56,168 students completed the PSAT/NMSQT in ninth grade and took the AP World History Exam in 10th grade; whereas 28,774 students took the PSAT/NMSQT in 10th or 11th grade and the AP World History Exam in 11th or 12th grade. For AP European History, there were 18,874 students who completed the PSAT/NMSQT in ninth grade and took the AP European History Exam in 10th grade and 61,658 students who took the PSAT/NMSQT in 10th or 11th grade and then the AP European History Exam as 11th-or 12th-graders. Data Analyses The analyses involved calculation of descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, and logistic regressions. A key question was examining whether the PSAT/NMSQT predictor previously chosen when ninth-grade PSAT/NMSQT scores were not included as reported by Zhang et al. (2014) was still the same or whether a different predictor was more appropriate. Once the PSAT/NMSQT predictor was selected, logistic regressions were computed using the combined data from all ninth-, 10th-, and 11th-grade PSAT/NMSQT examinees in order to produce the updated expectancy tables. Results Table 1 provides AP Exam scores and PSAT/NMSQT scores for students who took the PSAT/NMSQT in ninth grade and then completed either AP European History or AP World History Exams as 10th-graders. Table 2 contains correlation coefficients between AP Exam scores and PSAT/NMSQT scores based on ninthgrade PSAT/NMSQT examinees only, 10th-and 11th-grade PSAT/NMSQT examinees, and combined ninth-, 10th-, and 11th-grade examinees. For ninth-grade PSAT/NMSQT examinees, CR + M + W correlated the highest with scores on both the AP European History and AP World History Exams. The same result was found when data from PSAT/NMSQT examinees at all three grade levels (ninth, 10th, and 11th) were combined. For AP World History, the AP Potential tool previously used CR + M as the basis for the expectancy table, which is different from the PSAT/NMSQT predictor that was shown here to have the highest correlation with AP World Statistical Report 2014 1 © 2015 The College Board. 1 History Exam scores when ninth-grade data were considered. Keep in mind that the sample size for the ninthgrade PSAT/NMSQT examinees who took AP World History as 10th-graders was almost twice as large as the sample size for 10th-and 11th-grade PSAT/NMSQT examinees. Thus, the ninth-grade PSAT/NMSQT examinees are presumably more representative of the examinee population. Table 1. AP Exam and PSAT/NMSQT Performance for Ninth-Grade PSAT/NMSQT Examinees | Score | N | Mean | SD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AP European History PSAT/NMSQT Critical | 18,874 | 2.67 | 1.32 | | Reading | 18,874 | 49.13 | 8.98 | | PSAT/NMSQT Math | 18,874 | 50.45 | 9.09 | | PSAT/NMSQT Writing | 18,874 | 47.98 | 9.12 | | AP World History | 56,168 | 2.52 | 1.30 | | PSAT/NMSQT Critical | | | | | Reading | 56,168 | 46.69 | 9.11 | | PSAT/NMSQT Mat

FAQs

What was the purpose of the addendum described in the report?

It provides updated correlations and expectancy tables for AP European History and AP World History that incorporate students who took the PSAT/NMSQT in ninth grade and the AP exams in later grades.

Which methods were used for the data analyses?

The report calculated descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, and logistic regressions to evaluate predictors and estimate expectancy tables.

How were expectancy tables generated in this study?

Logistic regressions used CR + M + W composite scores to model the probability of achieving AP scores of 3 or higher and 4 or higher, then converted parameter estimates into PSAT/NMSQT cut scores shown in Tables 3 and 4.

Sep 20, 2026

Uploaded by Aladdin