China’s rise and New Zealand’s interests - a policy primer for 2030 - Discussion Paper No.11 - 2012

Oct 17, 2026

China’s emergence as an international power in the early 21st century is treated as the result of already visible economic, political and military trends, replacing the old reassurance of Western predominance and American leadership. The paper frames dealing with a prosperous China as a central foreign policy adjustment for Asia-Pacific states, with consequences for global and regional order likely to dominate New Zealand’s foreign policy concerns for the coming two decades.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages30

Reading Time1 h 16 min

AccessFree to download

Executive summary

China’s power trajectory

Governance and political change

International influence and institutions

Implications for New Zealand policy-makers

CHINA’S RISE AND NEW ZEALAND’S INTERESTS: A policy primer for 2030 Chris Elder and Robert Ayson Discussion Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand Victoria University of Wellington No. 11, 2012 CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES NEW ZEALAND Discussion Papers The Centre for Strategic Studies Discussion Paper series is designed to give a forum for scholars and specialists working on issues related directly to New Zealand’s security, broadly defined, in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. The opinions expressed and conclusions drawn in the Discussion Papers are solely those of the writers. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand or any other organisation with which the writer may be affiliated. For further information or additional copies of the Discussion Papers please contact: The Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand Victoria University of Wellington PO Box 600 Wellington New Zealand. Tel: 64 4 463 5434 Fax: 64 4 463 5437 Email: [css@vuw.ac.nz](css@vuw.ac.nz) [http://www.victoria.ac.nz/css/](http://www.victoria.ac.nz/css/) © Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand Victoria University of Wellington. 2012 ISSN 2230-5378 Cover photo: New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key (L) with China's Vice President Xi Jinping at an Official dinner at Government House in Auckland for Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, 17 June 2010.(Official photo of the New Zealand Government image gallery) Desktop publishing: Synonne Rajanayagam China’s rise and New Zealand’s interests: a policy primer for 2030 Chris Elder and Robert Ayson Discussion Paper No.11, 2012 Published by Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand Victoria University of Wellington CSS Discussion Paper No.11, 2012 ii China’s rise and New Zealand’s interests: a policy primer for 2030 Chris Elder and Robert Ayson Executive summary The emergence of China as an international power in the early decades of the 21st century is widely accepted as the consequence of economic, political and military trends which are already apparent today. The familiar patterns of power centred on western predominance and American leadership will no longer offer the reassurance they once did. Dealing with a prosperous and powerful China, which is by no means a novelty in world history, is commonly accepted as the main foreign policy adjustment that needs to be made by all countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The effects of China’s rise on the global and Asia-Pacific regional order are likely to be the main preoccupations for New Zealand foreign policy-makers in the next twenty years and more. In this study, we seek to do three things. First, we examine what we believe China’s economic, political and military trajectory will resemble between now and the early 2030s. Second, we contemplate the effects that this trajectory for China will have on international institutions and Asia-Pacific regional affairs. Third, we propose a series of issues that New Zealand’s policymakers will need to bear in mind. In terms of the trajectory of China’s power, there is general consensus that China’s economy will continue to grow strongly, even if there are some significant challenges for its leaders to negotiate. The size of China’s population means its aggregate growth will surpass that of the USA long before GDP per capita equalises with that of the USA or other western economies. As both its wealth and external interests expand, China will also develop stronger military capabilities to defend those interests and to match its sense of prestige. China will be able to project power further from its boundaries, and friction with neighbours and regional powers may intensify. The manner of China’s assertion of its power will result in part from its style of government. Pressures on the Chinese Communist Party’s rule may grow from an expanding middle class and from any significant diminution of economic grow

FAQs

What three objectives does the study set out to achieve?

It examines China’s economic, political and military trajectory toward the early 2030s, considers effects on international institutions and Asia-Pacific affairs, and proposes a set of issues New Zealand policymakers must consider.

How does the paper expect China’s economic and military trajectory to develop?

It expects continued strong aggregate growth despite challenges, followed by expanded military capabilities to defend expanding interests and project power further from China’s borders.

What does the paper suggest are the main challenges for New Zealand policymakers?

It argues the key considerations are likely to be political judgements rather than economic consequence or strategic concern, requiring domestic understanding and adaptation to China’s growing South Pacific influence.

Oct 17, 2026

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