Changing the Odds: Student Achievement after Introduction of a Middle School Math Intervention - NBER Working Paper 30870 - Research evaluation

Oct 3, 2026

The paper evaluates math performance across four high-need middle schools during a four-year Changing the Odds intervention aimed at helping math teachers diagnose student needs and craft responsive lesson plans. Researchers preselected matched comparison schools using achievement and demographic factors. Difference-in-differences show a significant rise of about 0.11 standard deviation per year in program-school test scores. Event study and synthetic control results suggest smaller effects in year 1 than later years, while a cost analysis assesses affordability for scaling.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages38

Reading Time1 h 36 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Program design and intervention components

Evaluation approach

Comparison schools and matching

Difference-in-differences results

Event study and synthetic control analyses

Cost and affordability analysis

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES CHANGING THE ODDS: STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT AFTER INTRODUCTION OF A MIDDLE SCHOOL MATH INTERVENTION Julian R. Betts Andrew C. Zau Karen Volz Bachofer Dina Polichar Working Paper 30870 [http://www.nber.org/papers/w30870](http://www.nber.org/papers/w30870) NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 January 2023 The work described in this paper has been supported by grant R305H150028 from the U.S. Department of Education under its Continuous Improvement grant competition. All statementsand opinions expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the authors. We are grateful to our many research partners on the Changing the Odds project including Ronald Rode, Amanda Datnow, Kimberly Samaniego, Ann Trescott, and Hayley Weddle, Leah Baylon and to our partners who implemented key parts of the reform, Kira Rua and Andrea Barraugh, for helping to make this project possible. This research received human subjects approval from the UC San Diego Human Research Protections Program, under approval \#150915SX. The committee waived the requirement for informed consent from students as administrative data were used and given precautions taken to safeguard identity of students and schools, risk of breach of confidentiality was judged to be minimal. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2023 by Julian R. Betts, Andrew C. Zau, Karen Volz Bachofer, and Dina Polichar. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Changing the Odds: Student Achievement after Introduction of a Middle School Math Intervention Julian R. Betts, Andrew C. Zau, Karen Volz Bachofer, and Dina Polichar NBER Working Paper No. 30870 January 2023 JEL No. I2,I21,I24,I28 ABSTRACT The paper evaluates math performance at four high-need middle schools during a four-year intervention, which was designed to help math teachers diagnose students’ areas of need and to design lesson plans responsive to those needs. Before the intervention began, the researchers preselected four comparison schools by matching based on achievement and also on demographics. A difference-in-difference analysis finds a significant increase of about 0.11 standard deviation in test scores per year for students in the program schools. Supplementary event study and synthetic control analyses to detect year-by-year effects lack precision but are weakly suggestive of a smaller impact in year 1 than later years. A cost analysis considers the affordability of extending similar programs. Julian R. Betts Department of Economics, 0508 University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive La Jolla, CA 92093-0508 and NBER [jbetts@ucsd.edu](jbetts@ucsd.edu) Andrew C. Zau Department of Economics University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive La Jolla, CA 92093-0508 [azau@ucsd.edu](azau@ucsd.edu) Karen Volz Bachofer Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive La Jolla, CA 92093-0508 [karenbachofer@gmail.com](karenbachofer@gmail.com) Dina Polichar Dept. of Economics University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive La Jolla, CA 92093-0508 [dpolichar@ucsd.edu](dpolichar@ucsd.edu) Introduction Performance of secondary school students in math courses is one of the best predictors of college outcomes and early career wages in the United States (Rose and Betts, 2004) . Atthe same time, the U.S. ranks poorly on international math tests. For instance, the 2015 Program for International Student Achievement (P

FAQs

What was the Changing the Odds intervention designed to achieve?

The intervention was designed to improve math achievement by helping teachers diagnose students’ areas of need and create lesson plans responsive to those needs across a four-year implementation.

How were comparison schools selected?

Researchers preselected four comparison schools by matching them to the program schools based on students’ prior achievement and demographic characteristics.

What do the main results show about student test-score changes?

Difference-in-differences indicate a significant increase of about 0.11 standard deviation in test scores per year for students in the program schools.

Oct 3, 2026

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