CEPA Working Paper No. 21-07 - The Revealed Preferences for School Reopening - Evidence from Public-School Disenrollment

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Angel

Explores how school reopening instructional modes affected public-school enrollment after the 2020-21 year began. Most U.S. districts chose remote-only instruction, coinciding with a sharp K-12 enrollment decline of about 1.1 million students. Using unique panel data linking district enrollment trajectories to instructional modes, the study finds remote-only (vs in-person) reduced enrollment by 1.1 percentage points, with larger disenrollment effects in kindergarten and limited evidence for middle or high school. Hybrid shows no clear impact.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages33

Reading Time1 h 23 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Introduction and Context

Instructional Trade-offs in 2020

District-Level Reopening Choices

Enrollment Declines and Early Indicators

Study Focus: Impact of Reopening Decisions

CEPA Working Paper No. 21-07 The Revealed Preferences for School Reopening: Evidence from Public-School Disenrollment AUTHORS Thomas S. Dee Stanford University Elizabeth Huﬀaker Stanford University Cheryl Philips Stanford University Eric Sagara Stanford University ABSTRACT Before the 2020-21 school year, educators, policymakers, and parents confronted the stark and uncertain trade-oﬀs implied by the health, educational, and economic consequences of oﬀering instruction remotely, in person, or through a hybrid of the two. Most public schools in the U.S. chose remote-only instruction and enrollment fell dramatically (i. e. , a loss of roughly 1.1 million K-12 students) . We examine the impact of these choices on public-school enrollment using unique panel data that combine district-level enrollment trajectories with information on their instructional modes. We ﬁnd oﬀering remote-only instead of in-person instruction reduced enrollment by 1.1 percentage points (i. e. , a 42 percent increase in disenrollment from-2.6 to-3.7 percent) . The disenrollment eﬀectsof remote instruction are concentrated in kindergarten and, to a lesser extent, elementary schools. We do not ﬁnd consistent evidence that remote instruction inﬂuenced middle or high-school enrollment or that hybrid instruction had an impact. Acknowledgements – We acknowledge the excellent research assistance provided by Julia Ingram Justine Issavi, Justin Mayo, Dilcia Mercedes, Christine Deliane, and Charlie T. Hoﬀs at Big Local News and helpful comments by Dana Goldstein, Alicia Parlapiano, and Adam Playford. We also thank Dennis and Julie Roche for providing access to the Burbio audit data. Student work on this project was funded through a Magic Grant from the Brown Institute For Media Innovation. VERSION August 2021 Suggested citation: Dee, T.S. , Huﬀaker, E. , Philips, C. , & Sagara, E. , The Revealed Preferences for School Reopening: Evidence from Public-School Disenrollment. (CEPA Working Paper No. 21. 06) . Retrieved from Stanford Center for Education Policy Analysis: [https://cepa.stanford.edu/wp21-06](https://cepa.stanford.edu/wp21-06) 1 In the summer of 2020, educators and parents in the U.S. faced an exceptionally difficult choice with regard to how they should deliver instruction for the 2020-21 school year (i.e., remote, in-person, or a hybrid of the two) . The number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases had risen to record heights in July of 2020 and an even more substantial “second wave” of infections was (as it turned out, correctly) anticipated for the coming winter. In addition, at that time, the timeline for availability and the effectiveness of the currently available vaccines were highly uncertain. These factors motivated grave concerns about the health risks of bringing students, teachers, and staff together for a conventional academic year of in-person instruction.1 However, the potentially serious consequences of not doing so were also widely discussed (e.g., Oster, 2020) . In particular, for many parents, having children spend more or all of the 2020-21 school year at home would seriously amplify the disruption to their labor-force engagement and exacerbate household stress by denying child-care and other supports. Furthermore, there was wide concern that the absence of full-time, in-person instruction would dramatically harm both the intellectual development and the social and emotional wellbeing of children while conveying only modest health benefits to younger children who appeared less susceptible to COVID-19. Faced with these difficult trade-offs, most states chose not to make a universal decision about reopening public K-12 schools and instead left the decision to local school districts, who largely chose to offer remote instruction (Kurtz, 2020) . Specifically, in the fall of 2020, 57 percent of students in district public schools experienced remote-only instruction with 24 percent in in-person instruction and 19

FAQs

What question does the paper investigate about school reopening?

It examines how the instructional mode chosen for reopening affected public-school enrollment for the 2020-21 school year.

What data approach does the paper use?

It uses unique panel data combining district-level enrollment trajectories with information on instructional modes.

What is the main finding about remote-only versus in-person instruction?

Offering remote-only instead of in-person instruction reduced enrollment by 1.1 percentage points, corresponding to a large increase in disenrollment.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Angel