Cabo Verde - World Bank Assessment Letter for the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) - November 21, 2023

Jul 19, 2026

World Bank assessment letter for Cabo Verde under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) dated November 21, 2023. It details country vulnerability to climate change, highlighting drought, desertification, erosion, extreme rainfall and flood exposure, sea-level rise, and biodiversity loss, alongside estimated adverse natural-event losses near 1% of GDP. The letter emphasizes disproportionate impacts on poor households, constraints from limited disaster- and climate-informed urban development, and weak coping capacity, then outlines government commitments and priority adaptation sectors.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages5

Reading Time13 min

A. Country vulnerability to climate change

Key hazards and existential threats

Estimated losses and compounding structural factors

Disproportionate impacts on poor households

Resilience of growth model and sector exposure

B. Government policies and commitments

Political commitment and strategic frameworks

NDC targets and priority sectors

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized WORLD BANK ASSESSMENT LETTER FOR THE RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY FACILITY (RSF) CABO VERDE November 21, 2023 A. Country vulnerability to climate change including human, social and economic costs 1. As a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), Cabo Verde is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The country is exposed to episodes of long-term droughts, desertification of land, erosion, and extreme rainfall events leading to floods particularly in urban areas. Moreover, sea level rise and loss of biodiversity and ecosystems pose existential threats to the archipelago. The country has recently suffered five consecutive years of drought, which caused significant land degradation. In terms of vulnerability to climate change, the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative ranks Cabo Verde 77 in 2021, 1 which places the country well below its aspirational peers such as Mauritius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, or Saint Lucia. 2 2. Losses from adverse natural events have already had a significant impact, and could worsen in the absence of climate action. The Annual Average Loss (AAL) from adverse natural events have been estimated at almost 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), 3 and future potential losses are set to increase if adaptation measures are not quickly implemented (CEM, 2023) . These losses are mainly driven by flood-related risks, which account for almost 70 percent of the aggregated AALs, and are based on current climate patterns. Two structural factors exacerbate the negative impacts of adverse natural events. First, lack of a disaster and climate informed urban development leading to a steady expansion of cities and physical assets into risk-prone areas causing an increased exposure of assets and people to adverse natural events. Second, the lack of copying capacity of vulnerable population, particularly those living in rural areas. Without adaptation efforts, negative impacts and losses are likely to worsen as climate change unfolds. 3. Climate change is expected to have a disproportionate impact on poor households in Cabo Verde due to their higher exposure to natural hazards and the vulnerability of their income. Remote sensing data and the 2015 Household Expenditure and Income Survey (IDRF-III) show that 67 percent of the population lives in an area that could be affected by high-damage pluvial floods. Income of poor households are associated to sectors that are highly affected by the impact of climate change increasing their vulnerability, such as agriculture. Climate change is expected to reduce crop and livestock yields and cause heat stress for workers who primarily work outdoors. These will have negative effects on labor productivity which may also reduce the wage bill for agricultural workers, leading to negative externalities that reduce local demand in rural economies, where 50 percent of poor households live. 4. Increasing the resilience of the existing growth model – and future nodes of growth – is thus crucial. Tourism is the driver of growth and will continue to be the mainstay of the economy – with the Tourism Operational Plan (2022-2026) outlining policies for a more diversified tourism offering.4 Beyond 1 The ND-GAIN Country Index summarizes a country's vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience. It aims to help governments, businesses and communities better prioritize investments for a more efficient response to the immediate global challenges ahead. The higher the rank, the better. 2 Mauritius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, or Saint Lucia rank 48, 58, 68, respectively, by the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative. 3 AAL correspond to the expected direct loss per year, averaged over 1980-2020. It covers flood, drought earthquake, and volcanic eruptions, considering only current climate patterns. 4 The Tourism Operational Plan (2022-2026) aims

FAQs

What climate risks make Cabo Verde especially vulnerable?

Cabo Verde faces long-term droughts, desertification, land erosion, extreme rainfall with urban flooding, sea-level rise, and biodiversity and ecosystem loss.

How are losses from adverse natural events estimated to affect the economy?

Annual average losses from adverse natural events are estimated at nearly 1% of GDP, driven mainly by flood-related risks, and are expected to rise without timely adaptation.

Which government priorities and sectors guide climate adaptation commitments?

Cabo Verde’s Nationally Determined Contribution and related plans focus on climate resilience across priority sectors including water, agriculture, oceans and coastal zones, spatial planning, disaster risk reduction, and health.

Jul 19, 2026

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