Burden of multiple myeloma in Asian countries from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction for 2050 - an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Sep 28, 2026

Multiple myeloma (MM) is addressed as a growing public-health challenge with pronounced regional differences. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the analysis quantifies MM incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs across Asian countries for 1990–2021. Trend and gender- and region-stratified comparisons are performed, followed by ARIMA-based projections to 2050.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryHealthcare

FormatPDF

Pages18

Reading Time45 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

TYPE Original Research PUBLISHED 18 December 2025 DOI 10.3389/fmed.2025.1696768 OPEN ACCESS EDITED BY Abdulqadir J. Nashwan, Hamad Medical Corporation, Qatar REVIEWED BY Jiafeng Zhang, Shanghai Changzheng Hospital, China Arindam Bagga, Johns Hopkins University, United States *CORRESPONDENCE Tongping Shen [shentp2010@ahtcm.edu.cn](shentp2010@ahtcm.edu.cn)[ ](shentp2010@ahtcm.edu.cn)Yu Zhao [zhaoyujyrm@163.com](zhaoyujyrm@163.com) †These authors have contributed equally to this work and share ﬁrst authorship RECEIVED 01 September 2025 REVISED 02 November 2025 ACCEPTED 04 December 2025 PUBLISHED 18 December 2025 CITATION Hu C, Chen W, Zhang P, Shen T and Zhao Y (2025) Burden of multiple myeloma in Asian countries from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction for 2050: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 . Front. Med. 12:1696768 . doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1696768 COPYRIGHT © 2025 Hu, Chen, Zhang, Shen and Zhao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Burden of multiple myeloma in Asian countries from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction for 2050: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Chengjun Hu1†, Weifeng Chen1†, Ping Zhang1 , Tongping Shen2* and Yu Zhao1* 1 Department of Hematology, The Afﬁliated Jiangyin Hospital of Nantong University, Jiangyin, Jiangsu, China, 2 School of Information Engineering, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, Anhui, China Background: Multiple myeloma (MM) poses a growing challenge to global public health, with regional disparities in disease burden becoming increasingly prominent. As the most populous continent, Asia is undergoing rapid demographic and socioeconomic transitions, and plays a critical role in shaping the evolutionary trajectory of the global MM burden. This study aims to assess the disease burden of multiple myeloma in Asian countries from 1990 to 2021 . Methods: The data of this study were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database. We conducted a systematic analysis of the disease burden of MM in Asia from 1990 to 2021, covering four core dimensions: incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) . To fully present the complexity of the disease burden, we also performed multiple analytical approaches, including trend analysis, gender-stratiﬁed analysis, regional comparative analysis, and ARIMA model prediction analysis. Results: In 2021, incident cases of MM in Asia accounted for 35 . 8% of the global total, prevalent cases for 34.2%, deaths for 36.3%, and DALYs for 39.7%, making Asia a key contributing region to the global MM disease burden. From 1990 to 2021, the growth rates of the above indicators in Asia were signiﬁcantly higher than the global average. Moreover, ARIMA model projections indicated that Asia’s MM burden would follow a “ﬁrst increase, then stabilize” trajectory by 2050, with a more prominent growth magnitude and higher prediction uncertainty observed in men. This disparity may reﬂect a combination of metabolic, lifestyle, and genetic factors East Asia and South Asia emerged asthe core regions bearing the MM burden, while Central Asia exhibited the fastest growth rate in burden. High-income regions had higher MM diagnosis rates (reducing underreporting), whereas low-income regions faced signiﬁcant underestimation of the actual burden due to limited diagnostic capacity. Additionally, as socioeconomic status decreased, the average age at death of MM patients advanced. Frontiers in Medicine 01 [frontiersin.org](frontier

FAQs

What dataset and analysis scope are used to study MM in Asia?

The study uses the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database and analyzes MM burden in Asia from 1990 to 2021 across incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs.

Which disease-burden indicators are included in the study?

The indicators include incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

How are future trends to 2050 estimated?

ARIMA model projection is used to predict that Asia’s MM burden will follow a pattern of first increase and then stabilization by 2050, with higher uncertainty in men.

Sep 28, 2026

Uploaded by Mafia Boss