Botswana Country Economic Memorandum - In search of new drivers of inclusive growth - May 2024

Jul 19, 2026

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Botswana’s Country Economic Memorandum sets out diagnostics on past performance and future growth trajectories to support government strategic vision toward becoming a high-income economy and ending extreme poverty by 2036. It highlights a shift from higher to mid-range growth, persistent poverty, and signs of exhaustion in a diamond-rents led public sector model amid rising vulnerability to financial, climate, and health shocks. The analysis emphasizes productivity-led inclusive growth and outlines policy directions across firm dynamism, skills, finance, connectivity, and public sector performance.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages100

Reading Time4 h 12 min

AccessFree to download

Key messages

Botswana’s growth and poverty context

Productivity-led inclusive growth priorities

Why this diagnostic?

Diagnostic purpose for 2036 vision

Methods and benchmarking approach

Coverage boundaries and parallel studies

ed Public Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized BOTSWANA Country Economic Memorandum: In search of new drivers of inclusive growth May 2024 Acknowledgements • The Botswana Economic Memorandum“In the search of new drivers of inclusive growth” was co-led by Jacques Morisset (Lead Economist, EFI Program Leader); Javier Baez (Lead Economist); and Tshepho Babatshi Gasha (Economist) . The core team also included Marko Kwaramba (Senior Economist) and Dumisani Ngwenya (Economist) . • The report benefitted from inputs by World Bank experts, including (by alphabetical order): Bernard Aritua (Lead Transport Specialist); Carolina Diaz-Bonilla (Senior Poverty Economist); Consolate Rusagara (FCI Practice Manager); Elizabeth Ninan (HD Program Leader); Hartwick Tchale (Senior Agriculture Economist); Karla Gonzalez Carvajal (Transport Practice Manager); Marc Schrijver (Senior Financial Sector Specialist); Michael Ehst (Senior Private Sector Specialist); Nadia Taobane (Senior Energy Specialist); Omowunmi Ladipo (Governance Practice Manager); Smita Kuriakose (Lead Private Sector Specialist); and Steven Michael Pennings (Senior Economist) . Assistance was provided by Nani Makonnen and Anna Mary Esterhuizen. • The team is grateful to the two peer reviewers, Habib Rab (Lead Economist) and Nathalie Picarelli (Senior Economist), for their useful comments. The collection of international best practices was made possible by the contributions from Marc Schiffbauer (Lead Economist), Marc Forni (Lead Urban Specialist); Nadia Rocha (Lead Economist); and Jean-Christophe Maur (Senior Economist) . • The team extends gratitude to the Botswana officials, including cabinet members, and local stakeholders who provided feedback during several workshop engagements. A special thank you to the Governor of the Central Bank, Cornelius Dekop, and the following discussants Wilfred Mandlebe, Cláudia Conceição, Alinah Segobye, Gloria Somolekae and Keith Jefferies for their participation to the consultation meeting organized in November 2023. • The report was finalized under the collective guidance and leadership of Satu Kahkonen (Country Director), Marie-Francoise Marie-Nelly (former Country Director); Asad Alam (EFI Regional Director); Hassan Zaman (EFI Regional Director); Asmeen Khan Manager (Operation Manager), Marco Hernandez (MTI Practice Manager); d Pierella Paci (Poverty Practice Manager), and Liang M. D. O. Wang (Country Representative) . Key messages 1 2 3 Botswana aspires to become a high-income economy and eradicate extreme poverty by 2036, but ... • It has shifted from a top to a mid-range performer over the past decade – the growth rate declined to an average of 3% per year over the last decade, down from 5.1% in the 2000s. • Close to half of its people lives with less than $6 .85 per day by 2022, extremely high for an upper middle-income country. • The public sector-led growth model built on diamond rents shows signs of exhaustion, while the economy has become more vulnerable to financial, climate and health shocks. Botswana can meet its aspirations and avoid getting caught in a middle-income country trap with a greater emphasis on creating the conditions for productivity-led inclusive growth. • The country needs to generate productivity gains of about 2% per year, while investing more and above all better in both physical and human capital. Boosting Botswana’s productivity requires special attention to five determinants • Encouraging dynamic firm creation and growth and technology adoption/innovation • Developing skills in the labor force • Improving access to financial services • Enhancing connectivity to enlarge markets • Upgrading public sector performance 3 Why this diagnostic? This Report intends to be an input into the government’s strategic vision and policymaking to help move Botswana closer to its ambitious objective of becoming a high-income economy by

FAQs

What main goal does the memorandum support for Botswana by 2036?

It aims to contribute to government strategic vision and policymaking to help Botswana become a high-income economy by 2036 and eradicate extreme poverty.

Why is productivity-led inclusive growth emphasized?

The report links Botswana’s development challenge to the need for productivity gains and better investment in physical and human capital, while avoiding a middle-income trap.

Which five determinants does the memorandum highlight to boost productivity?

It stresses dynamic firm creation and innovation, skills development, improved access to financial services, enhanced connectivity, and upgrading public sector performance.

Jul 19, 2026

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