Balancing stability and transition - A first assessment of Regra de Permanência in Bolsa Familia

Jul 19, 2026

A technical note assessing “Regra de Permanência” (RP) within Brazil’s Bolsa Família focuses on how RP supports or reshapes policy goals. The analysis examines whether RP helps increase human capital accumulation, evaluates incentive compatibility for families entering formal labor, and reviews evidence on promoting exit from Bolsa Família. It also situates RP’s exit rules within an international perspective and provides targeted recommendations, supported by survey and administrative data and annexed profile and simulation charts.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages56

Reading Time2 h 21 min

AccessFree to download

Executive Summary

Foreword

1. Introduction

2. Overview of design and objectives of the RP

3. Adequacy and contribution of RP to meet policy objectives

4. Exit rules in conditional cash transfers and last resort social assistance programs: an international perspective

5. Recommendations

6. References

Annex 1: Profile of families in RP

Annex 2: Additional charts of tax benefit simulations

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Balancing stability and transition A first assessment of Regra de Permanência in Bolsa Familia July 2021 Social Protection and Jobs Team, Latin America and Caribbean Region WITH THE SUPPORT OF ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This technical note was prepared by a team composed of Katharina Fietz, Tiago Falcão Silva, Maria Concepcion Steta Gandara, under the coordination of Matteo Morgandi (Task Team leader) of the World Bank Social Protection and Jobs Team, Latin America and Caribbean Region. The note incorporates analytical inputs by Gabriel Lyrio de Oliveira (household survey analysis) and analysis of administrative data conducted by Hugo Miguel Nunes, Marconi Sousa, and Eduardo Pereira of the Coordenação Geral Integração e Análise de Informações/Departamento de Condicionalidades, Ministry of Citizenship of Brazil. The team is grateful for inputs and comments to Secretary Fabiana Rodoupulos and the entire team of the Secretaria de Renda de Cidadania (SENARC), Ministry of Citizenship of Brazil. The team would like to thank peer reviewers Margaret Ellen Grosh, Aline Coudouel, and Benedicte Leroy De La Briere for their comments and inputs at various stages of this work. This work is conducted as part of the World Bank technical assistance to the Ministry of Citizenship, supported by Agence Francaise de Developpment through the “Brazil Social Protection Policies During the Recovery from COVID-19” EFO 1627. © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 [Internet: www.worldbank.org](Internet: www.worldbank.org) This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work maybe reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [pubrights@worldbank.org](pubrights@worldbank.org). Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. 1 FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 6 2. OVERVIEW OF DESIGN AND OBJECTIVES OF THE RP ...............................................................8 3. ADEQUACY AND CONTRIBUTION OF RP TO MEET POLICY OBJECTIVES................................13 3.1 IS RP CONTR

FAQs

What is the purpose of this assessment of Regra de Permanência in Bolsa Família?

The assessment evaluates RP’s adequacy and contribution to meeting policy objectives, including human capital outcomes, labor-market incentives, and exit dynamics from Bolsa Família.

How does the document evaluate whether RP supports human capital accumulation?

It analyzes RP’s contribution using specific indicators tied to the policy objective of greater accumulation of human capital, as described in section 3.1.

What recommendations does the report provide and on what basis?

Recommendations are developed after reviewing RP’s performance against the stated objectives and considering an international perspective on exit rules in similar assistance programs.

Jul 19, 2026

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