Are Expectations Alone Enough? Estimating the Effect of a Mandatory College-Prep Curriculum in Michigan

Oct 15, 2026

This article studies the Michigan Merit Curriculum (MMC), a statewide college-preparatory requirement for high school cohorts graduating in 2011 and later, and assesses its impact on achievement and completion. Analyses using interrupted time-series methods and longitudinal student and school characteristics indicate only slight effects tied to higher expectations, with the clearest change appearing in ACT science. Estimated ACT science scores rise by about 0.2 points, while graduation effects remain sensitive to specification, with limited evidence of reduced graduation among the least prepared.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryExam

FormatPDF

Pages28

Reading Time1 h 11 min

AccessFree to download

Impact of the Michigan Merit Curriculum (MMC)

Research questions and evaluation strategy

Evidence from ACT outcomes

Evidence from high school graduation rates

Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis June 2017, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 333–360 DOI: 10.3102/0162373716685823 © 2017 AERA. [http://eepa.aera.net](http://eepa.aera.net) Are Expectations Alone Enough? Estimating the Effect of a Mandatory College-Prep Curriculum in Michigan Brian Jacob Susan Dynarski University of Michigan Kenneth Frank Barbara Schneider Michigan State University This article examines the impacts of the Michigan Merit Curriculum (MMC), a statewide collegepreparatory curriculum that applies to the high school graduating class of 2011 and later. Our analyses suggest that the higher expectations embodied in the MMC had slight impact on student outcomes. Looking at student performance in the ACT, the only clear evidence of a change in academic performance comes in science. Our best estimates indicate that ACT science scores improved by 0.2 points (or roughly 0.04 SD) as a result of the MMC. Our estimates for high school completion are sensitive to the choice of specification, though some evidence suggests that the MMC reduced graduation for the least prepared students. Keywords: standards, accountability, achievement, graduation, high school Over the past two decades, the academic achievement of elementary students in the United States has risen substantially, but that of highschool students has stagnated. Reading and math scores of 9-and 13-year-olds rose from the early 1970s through 2012, whereas those of 17-yearolds barely budged (National Center for Education Statistics, 2013) . Moreover, recent research indicates that, when calculated properly, the high school graduation rate of boys is flat over the past 40 years, whereas that of girls has increased only slightly (Murnane, 2013) . The United States consistently lags behind other industrialized countries on international tests of the academic performance of high school students. On the 2009 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) exam, 15-year-oldsin the United States scored 17th in math and 12thin science relative to students in the other 33 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. Many states have responded to these trends, some of them implementing more rigorous course-taking standards. In this article, we focus on the efforts of one state to impose consistent curricular standards across high schools. In 2007, Michigan implemented the Michigan Merit Curriculum (MMC), which established an ambitious set of standards for the state’s high school students. To graduate from highschool, Michigan’s students must now take a set of classes that includes Algebra II, chemistry or physics, 4 years of English, and 2 years of a foreign language. While this set of courses is standard for any student planning to attend a 4-year college, it is not at all typical of most high school graduates. In 2005, only 12% of Michigan’s high schools required Algebra II, and even fewer required chemistry or physics. Among high school graduates nationwide in 2005, 68% completed Algebra II and only 31% completed physics.1 Jacob et al. The intent of the MMC is to increase academic preparation for college and enhance career readiness. It is expected that students, teachers, and schools will rise to the higher expectations, leading to an increase in academic achievement and attainment. But the likely effects of this initiative are ambiguous. When graduation standards are raised, it is plausible that fewer students will meet the new, higher standards required to graduate. This article evaluates the effect of the MMCon high school graduation rates and academic achievement.2 Like many large education policy changes, the MMC was implemented statewide and affected virtually all students at the sametime, making it difficult to convincingly estimate the causal impact of the reforms. We take several approaches to evaluating the policy. To begin, we employ student-level longitudinal data to estimate an interrupted time-series (ITS

FAQs

What is the Michigan Merit Curriculum (MMC) examined in the article?

The MMC is a statewide college-preparatory curriculum that applies to high school graduating classes of 2011 and later, requiring specific coursework such as Algebra II, chemistry or physics, four years of English, and two years of a foreign language.

What academic outcomes does the study find changed after MMC implementation?

The study finds the clearest evidence of change in ACT performance in science, with estimates suggesting ACT science scores improved by about 0.2 points (roughly 0.04 SD).

How does MMC affect high school graduation rates?

The article reports that estimated graduation effects are sensitive to the sample and methodology. Overall it finds no clear evidence of a major change, though some analyses suggest a small negative impact for students with the weakest initial academic preparation.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by pixelkiddo