An Integrated Hydrological-Socioeconomic Assessment Framework for Water Security in the Asian Water Tower - Research Article

Oct 17, 2026

Water security in the Asian Water Tower is increasingly threatened by uneven water distribution, intensified climate change, and intensified human activities, while many existing studies overlook dynamic upstream-downstream interactions and the regulatory role of water towers. This research builds an integrated assessment framework combining a dynamic water supply–demand index, water tower index (WTI), and socioeconomic exposure to identify risks and impacts across 10 major basins.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages21

Reading Time53 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Water availability and drivers of water security risk

Prior water scarcity and water security assessment approaches

Limitations for mountain regions and water tower dynamics

Hydrological Processes RESEARCH ARTICLE An Integrated Hydrological-Socioeconomic Assessment Framework for Water Security in the Asian Water Tower Ning Yuan1,2 | Xiaojun Wang1,3 | Wensheng Wang2 | Yiming Zhang2 | Hanxu Liang4 1National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China | 2College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China | 3Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, China | 4State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China Correspondence: Xiaojun Wang ([xjwang@nhri.cn](xjwang@nhri.cn)) | Wensheng Wang ([2023323060021@stu.scu.edu.cn](2023323060021@stu.scu.edu.cn)) Received: 15 December 2025 | Revised: 27 April 2026 | Accepted: 15 June 2026 Keywords: climate change | Qinghai-Tibetan plateau | socioeconomic exposure | water scarcity | water security ABSTRACT Water security in the Asian Water Tower is increasingly threatened by uneven water resource distribution, intensified climate change, and enhanced human activities. However, existing studies often neglect dynamic upstream-downstream interactions and water towers' regulatory functions. Here, this study developed a comprehensive assessment framework integrating the dynamic water supply–demand index, water tower index (WTI), and socioeconomic exposure, which systematically identified water security risks and impacts in the 10 major basins of the Asian Water Tower. Results indicated that southeastern humid basins such as the Yangtze, Mekong, and Salween maintained water security. In contrast, northwestern arid basins such as the Indus, Tarim, and Amu Darya River Basins experienced significant water scarcity and were highly dependent on upstream water supply (high WTI). Future scenario simulations revealed that the Yellow River Basin will achieve water security due to increased upstream supply capacity (67%–161%). The Amu Darya River Basin is projected to deteriorate most severely, with water scarcity areas expanding from 27% to 100% . Water scarcity in the Indus River Basin is projected to worsen significantly due to glacier retreat, increased water demand (60%–68%), and decreased water supply (8%–51%) . Socioeconomic exposure analysis showed that over 200 million people in the Ganges and Indus River Basins faced water security risks, and that GDP exposure in certain basins increased by more than tenfold. This study emphasizes that adaptive trans-regional water governance strategies centered on basin characteristics should be formulated to enhance water tower security. The results are derived from multi-model ensemble simulations and scenario-based projections, and they reflect potential water security risks rather than actual observed water security status. 1 | Introduction Water availability is essential for sustainable development of human societies and natural ecosystems (Shrestha et al. 2021; Liu et al. 2023; Shao et al. 2023) . However, climate change and human activities are increasingly altering water availability through distinct but interconnected pathways. Climate change is fundamentally altering water supply patterns (Greve et al. 2018) . Concurrently, human activities have dramatically increased water demand through population growth, urbanization, and agricultural expansion (He et al. 2021) . Furthermore, global water stress will continue increasing in the coming decades (Liu et al. 2019; Liu, Zhou, et al. 2024), which will further exacerbate the uneven distribution of water resources and pose significant challenges to the achievement of sustainable development goals (Cai et al. 2021) . Therefore, comprehensive © 2026 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Hydrological Processes, 2026; 40:e70615 1 of 21 [https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70615](https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70615) understanding of water security status is crucial for developing effective policies at global, regiona

FAQs

Why is water security in the Asian Water Tower under increasing threat?

Because water resources are distributed unevenly, climate change is intensifying, and human activities are increasing water pressures across the region.

What assessment framework does the study develop?

It integrates a dynamic water supply–demand index, a water tower index (WTI), and socioeconomic exposure to evaluate risks in 10 major basins.

How do upstream water tower functions affect downstream water supply in this study?

The framework explicitly captures dynamic regulatory effects from upstream water towers (such as glaciers, snow, and lakes) rather than treating supply–demand as a closed system.

Oct 17, 2026

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