AIR 2008 - The Predictive Validity of the New SAT - Achievement test and High School Grades on Undergraduate Success

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Rhys

A study examines whether the new SAT Achievement test predicts undergraduate success compared with the old SAT and with high school grades. It focuses on how standardized test scores and prior grades measure overlapping but distinct educational attainment, and evaluates predictive validity using relationships with undergraduate grade point average and course outcomes. The research applies point-to-point and curriculum-versus-aptitude framing, using cohorts from 2001 and 2006 to compare SAT I, SAT II, and new SAT measures.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages22

Reading Time55 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Standardized Tests

Current Study

Research Question

Theoretical Model

Rationale for Testing

Method

Sample Characteristics

AIR 2008 The Predictive Validity of the New SAT Achievement test and High School Grades on Undergraduate Success Presented to the Annual Forum of the Association for Institutional Research Seattle, WA May 24-28, 2008 Heidi Carty, Ph.D., Principal Research Analyst William Armstrong, Ph.D., Director of Student Research University of California, San Diego [http://studentresearch.ucsd.edu/](http://studentresearch.ucsd.edu/) Student Research & Information, Student Affairs, UCSD Heidi Carty, Ph.D. & William Armstrong, Ph.D. UC San Diego 1 AIR 2008 Introduction • Researchers have shown that SATs are good predictors of d d d i f undergraduate student academic performance . Some prospective undergraduate students find the SAT test relatively easy, achieve a higher than average score, and get into a great undergraduate school In 2006 a new SAT test based on undergraduate school. In 2006 , a new SAT test based on measuring a student’s achievement as opposed to a student’s inherent ability was introduced. Many universities and colleges have adopted the new SAT Achievement test as part ave adopted t e ew S c eve e t test as pa tof the application materials for admitting students. Does the new SAT Achievement test have predictive validity in predicting undergraduate success? Is the new SAT Achievement test a better predictor of undergraduate success compared to the old SAT test or compared to high school grades? Student Research & Information, Student Affairs, UCSD Heidi Carty, Ph.D. & William Armstrong, Ph.D. UC San Diego 2 AIR 2008 Standardized Tests • Standardized test scores and prior grades measure and prior grades overlapping but different aspects of educational attainment. Unlike grades, standardized test scores reflect performance on tasks that are common to all students. The SAT Achievement test is intended to measure only a portion of the individual characteristics that are important for success in undergraduate school: reasoning skills, critical thinking, and the ability to communicate effectively in writing. Student Research & Information, Student Affairs, UCSD Heidi Carty, Ph.D. & William Armstrong, Ph.D. UC San Diego 3 AIR 2008 Current Study • This study examines the predictive validity of high p y g school grades and SAT scores, both the SAT Achievement test and the old SAT ability test, on school s ccess as meas red b grade point a erage school success as measured by grade point average. Further, this study also compares the predictive validity between the old SAT tests (both the SAT I ( and SAT II) and the new SAT test in predicting school success as measured by school grades. Correlations between high school grades and the Correlations between high school grades, and the SAT Achievement tests and old SAT test are discussed. Student Research & Information, Student Affairs, UCSD Heidi Carty, Ph.D. & William Armstrong, Ph.D. UC San Diego 4 AIR 2008 Research Question Research Question • Which is a better predictor of college success is a better predictor of college success, as measured by undergraduate grades, the new SAT Achievement tests or the old SAT tests tests or the old tests and/or high school grades? Student Research & Information, Student Affairs, UCSD Heidi Carty, Ph.D. & William Armstrong, Ph.D. UC San Diego 5 AIR 2008 Theoretical Model • Predictive validity validity – Approximate the future in the present i t th th d l • Point-to-point theory, method overlap – Correspondence of predictor and criterion space i t th f lidit ffi i t mproves strength of validity coefficient • Curriculum vs . aptitude measure: Explanatory power should be enhanced by curriculum measure Student Research & Information, Student Affairs, UCSD Heidi Carty, Ph.D. & William Armstrong, Ph.D. UC San Diego 6 AIR 2008 Theoretical Model • What is predictive validity? How do we show evidence of predictive val

FAQs

What predictive validity does the document evaluate for the new SAT?

It evaluates the degree to which SAT scores appropriately predict a future criterion measure, specifically undergraduate grades and related outcomes.

How does the study compare the new SAT Achievement test with older SAT versions?

It compares the predictive validity of SAT Achievement with old SAT tests (SAT I and SAT II) by analyzing correlations with undergraduate success measured by grade point average.

What data and cohorts does the study use to run the analysis?

It uses first-time freshmen cohorts from 2001 and 2006, combining SAT I and SAT II scores for the earlier cohort and new SAT Achievement tests for the later cohort, along with GPA and high school GPA.

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Rhys