ACT Working Paper 2017-6 - Using Incoming Student Information to Identify Students At-Risk of Not Returning to Their Initial Institution in Year Two

Oct 9, 2026

ACT Working Paper 2017-6 investigates which incoming first-year student information, including data available in the ACT student record, can help higher education institutions identify students at risk of leaving their initial institution by year two. Using National Student Clearinghouse tracking for 630,000+ ACT-tested 2014 high school graduates across 1,150 two- and four-year institutions, the study examines attrition via dropout and transfer using hierarchical multinomial regression models. Academic readiness, college intentions, preference matches, and distance from home predict dropout and transfer, while underserved demographics still show elevated risk after controls.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages53

Reading Time2 h 14 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Study purpose

Data and methods

Key findings

Implications for early intervention

ACT WORKING PAPER 2017-6 Using Incoming Student Information to Identify Students At-Risk of Not Returning to Their Initial Institution in Year Two Justine Radunzel, PhD July, 2017 ACT Working Paper Series ACT working papers document preliminary research. The papers are intended to promote discussion and feedback before formal publication. The research does not necessarily reflect the views of ACT. Justine Radunzel is a principal research scientist in Statistical and Applied Research specializing in postsecondary outcomes research and validity evidence for the ACT® test. Abstract As pushes for increased accountability in higher education continue, postsecondary institutions are interested in identifying early on students who are at-risk of leaving their institution. With this in mind, this study sought to identify incoming first-year student information (such as that available on the ACT student record) that postsecondary institutions might use for determining students who are at-risk of leaving their institution in year two. Specifically, student characteristics were examined in relation to two types of attrition for the institution – students dropping out of college and students transferring to another institution – in comparison to students returning in year two. Data were available for more than 630,000 ACT-tested 2014 high school graduates who enrolled in college in fall 2014 at nearly 1,150 two-and four-year institutions. Initial and subsequent enrollment was tracked using National Student Clearinghouse data. Data on studentlevel characteristics included academic preparation and achievement measures; intentions about living on campus, enrolling full-time, and working while in college; educational goals; the number of college preferences met by the initial institution; the distance between home and initial institution attended; and demographic characteristics such as gender, race/ethnicity, and parents’ education level. Students’ college intentions, college preference matches, and distance from home were included in the study as possible proxies for barriers to social and academic integration at the initial institution attended. Hierarchical multinomial regression models accounting for institution attended were used to estimate retention and attrition rates. Results were examined by type of institution. Study findings suggest that multiple academic and non-academic factors are useful for predicting student attrition. First, at both two-and four-year institutions, students who were less academically prepared for college were more likely to drop out of college than those who were better prepared. Academic readiness was also negatively related to transfer at four-year institutions but was somewhat positively related to transfer at two-year institutions. College intentions also played a role in identifying who was likely to leave their initial institution. For example, students who indicated that they planned to work more hours while in college were more likely to drop out of college than those intending to work fewer hours. Additionally, the fewer the number of college preferences met by the initial institution attended the more likely a student was to drop out or transfer to another institution. Attending an institution farther away from home was also associated with higher transfer rates. Unfortunately, even after statistically controlling for academic measures and other student characteristics, students from certain underserved demographic groups (e.g., first-generation students and economically disadvantaged students) continued to be somewhat more likely than their peers to drop out. In secondary analyses among transfer students, we found that the type of institution transferred to in year two also varied by these same student characteristics. For example, for students beginning at a four-year institution, higher achievement levels were associated with lower chances of transferring to a two-year in

FAQs

What is the study trying to identify by year two?

It identifies incoming first-year student information that can help predict which students are at risk of not returning to their initial institution in year two, either by dropping out of college or transferring to another institution.

How was student outcome tracking conducted?

Enrollment was tracked initially and subsequently using National Student Clearinghouse data for more than 630,000 ACT-tested 2014 high school graduates across about 1,150 two- and four-year institutions.

Which factors were found to predict student attrition?

Multiple academic and non-academic factors were useful, including academic preparation, college intentions (such as hours planned to work), how many college preferences were met by the initial institution, and distance from home.

Oct 9, 2026

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