A Widening Chasm - The Divergent Paths of High and Low-Achieving Students in Algebra I After the Pandemic

Sep 30, 2026

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We follow four cohorts of students in Texas from grades 3 through 9 to identify which factors predict whether students pass the Algebra I end-of-course test by ninth grade. Early achievement explains most variation: racial and socioeconomic gaps in Algebra I completion trace back to differences in third-grade test scores. Tracking students over time shows the pandemic compounded inequalities by widening gaps within achievement levels and amplifying gaps between levels, with steep declines for low-achieving students. Results highlight targeting early elementary math resources.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages33

Reading Time1 h 23 min

AccessFree to download

1. Introduction

2. Background and Prior Research

3. Data and Samples

4. Methods

5. Results

6. Discussion and Conclusion

AWidening Chasm: The Divergent Paths of High-and LowAchieving Students in Algebra I After the Pandemic Ben Backes Michael DeArmond Elise Dizon-Ross Dan Goldhaber Alejandra Salazar May 2026 WORKING PAPER No. 339-0526 A Widening Chasm: The Divergent Paths of High and Low-Achieving Students in Algebra I After the Pandemic Ben Backes American Institutes for Research / CALDER Michael DeArmond American Institutes for Research / CALDER Elise Dizon-Ross American Institutes for Research / CALDER Dan Goldhaber American Institutes for Research / CALDER University of Washington / CEDR Alejandra Salazar American Institutes for Research / CALDER Contents ..................................................................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................................... ii Abstract.................................................................................................................................................................... iii 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Background and Prior Research ....................................................................................................................... 2 3. Data and Samples ............................................................................................................................................. 5 4. Methods ............................................................................................................................................................ 7 5. Results .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 6. Discussion and Conclusion............................................................................................................................. 13 References .............................................................................................................................................................. 16 Tables and Figures .................................................................................................................................................. 19 Appendix ................................................................................................................................................................ 28 The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the Gates Foundation. The research presented here utilizes confidential data from the State of Texas supplied by the Education Research Center (ERC) at The University of Texas at Austin. The authors gratefully acknowledge the use of these data. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the ERC or any of the supporting organizations mentioned herein, including The University of Texas at Austin orthe State of Texas. CALDER working papers have not undergone final formal review and should be cited as working papers. They are intended to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision before final publication. Any errors are attributable to the authors. CALDER • American Institutes for Research 1400 Crystal Drive 10th Floor, Arlington, VA 22202 202-403-5796 • [www.caldercenter.org](www.caldercenter.org) A Widening Chasm: The Divergent Paths of High-and Low-Achieving Students in Algebra I After the Pandemic Ben Backes, Michael DeArmond, Elise Dizon-Ross, Dan Goldhaber & Alejandra Salazar CALDER Working Paper No. 339-0526 May 2026 Abstract We follow four cohorts of students in Texas from grades 3 through 9 to identify which factors predict whether students pass

FAQs

What does the working paper examine about students’ Algebra I outcomes?

It identifies factors that predict whether students pass the Algebra I end-of-course test by ninth grade, using follow-up data across multiple grades.

How do early achievement differences relate to later Algebra I gaps?

Early achievement accounts for most variation, and racial and socioeconomic gaps in Algebra I completion trace back to differences in third-grade test scores.

What changes did the pandemic cause according to the findings?

The pandemic widened racial and socioeconomic gaps within achievement levels and amplified gaps between achievement levels, with the sharpest losses concentrated among low-achieving students.

Sep 30, 2026

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