A sustainability indicator for building projects in presence of risk/uncertainty over time

Aug 27, 2026

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The paper presents results from a research experience aimed at defining a sustainability indicator for building projects under time-dependent risk and uncertainty. It reviews leading methodologies for assessing economic sustainability from a life-cycle perspective and outlines a four-step research approach. A stochastic economic-environmental indicator is developed using a stochastic Global Cost method to address life cycle cost analysis, modeling inputs with probability distribution functions and component durability via the stochastic Factor Method, enabling probability-based decision support.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages33

Reading Time1 h 23 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Methodological focus and research aims

Literature review: economic-environmental indicators in life cycle perspective

Risk and uncertainty treatment in LCCA models

Building service life, residual values, and decision support

Elena Fregonara, Sara Pattono Dipartimento Architettura e Design, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy E-mail: elena.fregonara@polito.it, sara.pattono@polito.it Keywords: Economic-environmental sustainability Indicators, Life Cycle Cost Analysis, Durability and Service Life, Residual Value, Risk and Uncertainty, Probability Analysis, Stochastic Global Cost Parole chiave: Indicatori disostenibilità economico-ambientale, Analisi del Costo nel Ciclo di Vita, Durabilità e Vita Utile, Valore residuo, Rischio e incertezza, Analisi di Probabilità, Costo Globale stocastico JEL: C38, C53, D81 AESTIMUM 73, Dicembre 2018: 173-205 A sustainability indicator for building projects in presence of risk/uncertainty over time: a research experience* Aim of the paper is to present the results of a research experience focused on the setting of a sustainability indicator in presence of risk/uncertainty over time. Firstly, a literature review of the most widespread methodologies for the evaluation of project economic sustainability in a life cycle perspective is presented, extrapolating the most relevant research lines; secondly, a four steps research experience is illustrated. The methodology for calculating a stochastic economic-environmental indicator is proposed, by adopting a stochastic Global Cost approach to solve Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) . The input for the analysis are modeled through Probability Distribution Functions, while the durability of components is modeled through the stochastic approach to the Factor Method. 1. Introduction Nowadays, the definition of methodologies to support decision-making since the early design stages in the building sector projects is at the center of the scientific debate. A relevant contribution derives from the research germinated by international regulations in energy policies. Specific research lines are founded on Circular Economy and Life Cycle Thinking principles, conceiving the project in its whole life cycle articulated in phases. These last are related to specific evaluation tools. Specifically, the recent literature deals with the approaches for verifying the economic-environmental-energy sustainability of energy efficient interventions, both in case of new buildings and in case of retrofitting of existing heritage. From the analysis of the literature, three particularly interesting aspects emerge, considered their direct repercussions on the estimative disciplinary research: • the necessity to model jointly economic-environmental aspects, being conscious that the results of the application of specific tools for their evaluation, when applied separately, are even opposite; * The authors thank the Referees for the useful comments made. Obviously, the responsibility of the writing and, in particular, of any errors is of the authors. DOI: 10.13128/Aestimum-24928 © Firenze University Press [www.fupress.com/ceset](www.fupress.com/ceset) 174 Elena Fregonara, Sara Pattono • the necessity to internalize risk and uncertainty aspects in the evaluation processes, considered as structural elements in the real estate investments related to retrofit interventions on existing heritage or new energy efficient buildings projects; • the necessity – strictly linked to the previous point – to model lifespans of components/systems/buildings, in terms of Service Life prediction, with a direct effect on the calculation of the (eventual) residual values. In addition to the literature, the regulatory framework and the international standards on energy policies, specifically the sections about methodologies for supporting decision-making in building projects since the early design stages, generates relevant theoretical and methodological implications on estimative discipline. Particularly, the cost definition is considered a crucial aspect in decisions among technological options. From these premises, the aim of the paper is to present the results of a research experience focu

FAQs

What is the main goal of the paper?

To set up a sustainability indicator for building projects when risk and uncertainty vary over time, based on a research experience and a structured methodology.

How does the proposed indicator handle uncertainty and risk?

It uses a stochastic Global Cost approach for life cycle cost analysis, modeling analysis inputs with probability distribution functions and treating component durability stochastically.

Which evaluation methodologies are reviewed and linked to the indicator?

The paper reviews life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for economic indicators, life cycle assessment (LCA) for environmental indicators, and applications for combined synthetic economic-environmental indicators, together with risk and uncertainty approaches in LCCA.

Aug 27, 2026

Upload by Sarah