4 Key Findings for High Schools - from Looking Forward To High School and College - Middle Grade Indicators of Readiness

Oct 15, 2026

Transitioning from eighth grade to high school can cause a substantial decline in course performance. Students who earned Cs and Ds in middle grades often begin failing in high school, and even students with strong eighth-grade grades, attendance, and test scores may struggle to earn As and Bs in ninth grade. Using middle-grade attendance and GPA data, high schools can set goals, monitor risk, and provide targeted support early to improve high school completion and college readiness.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages16

Reading Time40 min

AccessFree to download

THE 4 KEY FINDINGS

Key finding 1: Attendance and GPA

Key finding 2: High achievers can still fall off-track

Key finding 3: Chronic absence and F grades predict early off-track status

Key finding 4: Early warning matters even without prior middle-grade trouble

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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4 Key Findings for High Schools
from Looking Forward To High School and College | | --- | | The transition from eighth grade to high school results in a substantial drop in course
performance for many students. Those with weak performance in the middle grades—students who were earning Cs and Ds—often begin failing classes in high school. Even students with very high grades, attendance, and test scores in eighth grade are at risk of not earning As and Bs in ninth grade. These declines in performance lead students to falloff-track for obtaining high school and college degrees; in order to graduate high school, students need to pass their classes, and they need to earn Bs or better in their classes tobe ready for college.
By using data on students’ middle grade performance, high school staff can set goals for their students to help them meet their potential and provide support before students falloff-track for either high school graduation or college success. This brief highlights a few key findings from the study Looking Forward to High School and College: Middle Grade Indicators of Readiness in Chicago Public Schools that have implications for how high schools support their incoming ninth-grade students.
THE 4 KEY FINDINGS | |
1. Students’ attendance and GPA in the middle grades provide the best indication of how they will perform in their high school classes, compared to other potential indicators such as test scores. These are the best indicators to use for setting goals with students and identifying which students need support and intervention at the start of the school year.
2. Many students with the highest levels of achievement in the middle grades fall off-track for college in the ninth grade. Students who enter
ninth grade with high achievement in the middle grades could benefit from monitoring and intervention if they fail to earn high grades in highschool, to make sure they reach their college potential.
3. Students who were chronically
absent or receiving Fs in the middle grades are already very likely to be off-track in ninth grade before they even begin high school. Supporting these students early in ninth grade is a critical step to helping them graduate.
4. Most students who are off-track in
ninth-grade courses did not show signs of academic trouble in the middle grades. Ninth-grade early warning monitoring systems, based on course grades and attendance in high school, are critical to keep all students on-track to graduate—for many students, academic problems start when they enter high school.
[ccsr. uchicago.edu](ccsr. uchicago.edu) | ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to acknowledge the many people who contributed to this work. We thank Robert Balfanzand Julian Betts for providing us with very thoughtful review and feedback which were used to revise the full report. We also thank Mary Ann Pitcher and Sarah Duncan, at the Network for College Success, and members of our Steering Committee, especially Karen Lewis, for their valuable feedback on the full report. Our colleagues at UChicago CCSR and UChicago UEI, including Shayne Evans, David Johnson, Thomas Kelley-Kemple, and Jenny Nagaoka, were instrumental in helping us think about the ways in which this research would be most useful to practitioners and policy makers. We thank Matthew Holsapple for his thorough and insightful technical read of this and the other brief developed from the full report. We were fortunate to receive substantial feedback and assistance from the UChicago CCSR communications staff; Bronwyn McDaniel, Jessica Puller, and Emily Krone. We thank the Chicago Public Schools for providing us the data that allowed us to do this work. All work at UChicago CCSR is also supported by operating grants from the Spencer Foundation and the Lewis-Sebring Family Foundation. This study was made possible by a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, to which we are very grateful. THIS BRIEF IS

FAQs

What best predicts how students will perform in high school classes?

Attendance and GPA in the middle grades provide the best indication, outperforming other indicators such as test scores for setting goals and identifying students needing support at the start of the school year.

Why can students with high middle-grade achievement still be at risk in ninth grade?

Many students who achieved highly in the middle grades fall off-track for college in ninth grade, so monitoring and intervention may be needed if they do not earn high grades.

How should high schools respond to students who were chronically absent or received Fs in middle grades?

They are already very likely to be off-track by ninth grade, so early support in ninth grade is critical to help them graduate.

Oct 15, 2026

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