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The mean model matches present day satellite and in situ observations and reproduces the seasonal cycle, with tropical upper troposphere location exceptions. Biases show high values in the Northern Hemisphere and low values in the Southern Hemisphere. RCP-based future projections for 2030 and 2100 indicate significant ozone burden changes driven mainly by precursor emissions, with RCP8.0 influenced by strongly increasing methane. Inter-model spreads imply non-uniform correlations across time slices and motivate unified ozone budget diagnostics.",{"@graph":63,"@context":118},[64,80,101],{"@type":65,"itemListElement":66},"BreadcrumbList",[67,71,74,77],{"item":68,"name":69,"@type":70,"position":9},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":72,"name":10,"@type":70,"position":73},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/",2,{"item":75,"name":51,"@type":70,"position":76},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/general/",3,{"item":78,"name":59,"@type":70,"position":79},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/pre-industrial-to-end-21st-century-projections-of-tropospheric-ozone-from-accmip-abstract/219205/",4,{"url":78,"name":59,"@type":81,"image":82,"author":87,"headline":59,"publisher":90,"fileFormat":93,"inLanguage":57,"description":61,"dateModified":94,"datePublished":95,"encodingFormat":93,"isAccessibleForFree":96,"interactionStatistic":97},"DigitalDocument",{"url":83,"@type":84,"width":85,"height":86},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/pre-industrial-to-end-21st-century-projections-of-tropospheric-ozone-from-accmip-abstract/219205.png","ImageObject",442,249,{"name":88,"@type":89},"Oliver Hayes","Person",{"url":68,"name":91,"@type":92},"DocShare","Organization","application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document","2026-09-13","2026-09-08",true,{"@type":98,"interactionType":99,"userInteractionCount":73},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":100},"ViewAction",{"@type":102,"mainEntity":103},"FAQPage",[104,110,114],{"name":105,"@type":106,"acceptedAnswer":107},"How is tropospheric ozone projected in ACCMIP across time periods?","Question",{"text":108,"@type":109},"The study analyzes time slices spanning 1850 to 2100 using 3 chemical transport models and 12 chemistry climate models participating in ACCMIP, with future comparisons using 2030 and 2100 slices under multiple RCPs.","Answer",{"name":111,"@type":106,"acceptedAnswer":112},"How well does the mean model reproduce present-day ozone observations?",{"text":113,"@type":109},"The mean model generally performs well versus present day satellite and in situ observations and captures the seasonal cycle, except for differences in some tropical upper troposphere locations.",{"name":115,"@type":106,"acceptedAnswer":116},"What drives the future ozone burden changes under different RCPs?",{"text":117,"@type":109},"Relative changes are largely explained by reductions in ozone precursor emissions, while the ozone increase for RCP8.0 occurs despite nitrogen oxide reductions and is attributed to a very large increase in methane. Some changes are significant depending on the RCP and time slice.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":78,"og:type":120,"og:title":59,"og:site_name":91,"og:description":61},"article",{"robots":122,"canonical":78},"index,follow",{"doc_id":124,"site_id":56},219205,1788862551,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":127},{"doc_id":124,"user_id":128,"nickname":88,"user_avatar":129,"doc_module":9,"category_id":50,"category_name":51,"doc_title":59,"doc_description":61,"doc_content":130,"file_id":131,"file_url":132,"file_type":133,"file_size":134,"view_count":9,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":9,"is_downloadable":9,"audit_status":9,"page_count":135,"language":136,"language_code":57,"site_id":56,"html_lang":57,"table_of_contents":137,"faqs":138,"seo_title":139,"seo_description":61,"update_tm":125,"read_time":140},687207020761,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d","Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)\nP. J. Young1,2, A. T. Archibald3, K. Bowman4, J.-F. Lamarque5, V. Naik6, D. S. Stevenson7, S. Tilmes5, A. Voulgarakis8, O. Wild9, D. Bergmann10, P. Cameron-Smith10, I. Cionni11, W. J. Collins12, S. Dalsoren13, R. Doherty7, V. Eyring14, G. Faluvegi15, G. Folberth12, L. W. Horowitz6, B. Josse16, Y. Lee8, I. McKenzie7, T. Nagashima17, D. Plummer18, M. Righi14, S. Rumbold12, R. Skeie13, D. T. Shindell15, S. Strode19, K. Sudo20, S. Szopa21 and G. Zeng22\n[1] Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA\n[2] Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA\n[3] Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, UK\n[4] NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, USA\n[5] National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA.\n[6] NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.\n[7] School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.\n[8] Department of Physics, Imperial College, London, UK\n[9] Lancaster Environment Centre, University of Lancaster, Lancaster, UK.\n[10] Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA.\n[11] ENEA, Bologna, Italy\n[12] Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office, Exeter, UK.\n[13] CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo, Oslo, Norway.\n[14] Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany\n[15] NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA.\n[16] Meteo-France, CNRM/GMGEC/CARMA, Toulouse, France.\n[17] Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center, Yokohama, Japan.\n[18] Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.\n[19] NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA.\n[20] Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan\n[21] Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.\n[22] National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand.\nCorrespondence to: P. J. Young (paul.j.young@noaa.gov)\n\u000f\nAbstract\nModelled present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing time slices from the 3 chemical transport models and 12 chemistry climate models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The mean model generally performs well against present day satellite and in situ observations. The seasonal cycle is well captured, except compared to some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Observations are consistent in suggesting a high bias for the mean model in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), which is also true for the majority of models. However, a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data encompasses 2/3 of the models. Compared to the present day, the mean tropospheric ozone burden for 1850 time slice is ~30% lower, with the largest contribution to the change coming from the NH extratropics. The mean burden increases between 1980 and 2000 (4%), although, based on the spread of the model results, this is not significant. Future changes in tropospheric ozone were considered for 2030 and 2100 time slices, using different projections of climate and ozone precursor emissions from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes for the tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: -5% (-22%) for RCP2.6, 3% (-8%) for RCP4.5, 0% (-9%) for RCP6.0, and 5% (15%) for RCP8.0. Based on the inter-model spread in","cbCaij9rgjLgfie4","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaij9rgjLgfie4","docx",205568,22,"English","# Abstract\n## ACCMIP model setup\n## Present-day evaluation and biases\n## Historical changes (1850, 1980-2000)\n## Future projections (2030, 2100) and RCP impacts\n## Model spread, correlations, and implications","[{\"question\":\"How is tropospheric ozone projected in ACCMIP across time periods?\",\"answer\":\"The study analyzes time slices spanning 1850 to 2100 using 3 chemical transport models and 12 chemistry climate models participating in ACCMIP, with future comparisons using 2030 and 2100 slices under multiple RCPs.\"},{\"question\":\"How well does the mean model reproduce present-day ozone observations?\",\"answer\":\"The mean model generally performs well versus present day satellite and in situ observations and captures the seasonal cycle, except for differences in some tropical upper troposphere locations.\"},{\"question\":\"What drives the future ozone burden changes under different RCPs?\",\"answer\":\"Relative changes are largely explained by reductions in ozone precursor emissions, while the ozone increase for RCP8.0 occurs despite nitrogen oxide reductions and is attributed to a very large increase in methane. Some changes are significant depending on the RCP and time slice.\"}]","Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from ACCMIP - abstract | DOCX",8]