[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-seo-565441-105":3,"detail-sidebar-cat-1-en-105":80,"doc-detail-565441-en":126},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"ok",{"site_id":7,"language":8,"slug":9,"title":10,"keywords":11,"description":12,"schema_data":13,"social_meta":73,"head_meta":75,"extra_data":77,"updated_unix":79},105,"en","pm-chartbook-charting-public-debt-with-peder-beck-friis-june-2025","PM Chartbook - Charting Public Debt With Peder Beck-Friis - June 2025","","PM Chartbook June 2025 charts rising public debt and explores key implications for the U.S. dollar and longer-term Treasury yields. It highlights that G7 government debt remains near post–World War II peak levels, with elevated interest rates increasing the burden of servicing high debt. The chartbook also assesses the U.S. debt trajectory as unsustainable, discusses why the dollar is likely to stay the dominant reserve currency, and notes how rising interest payments may eventually drive fiscal consolidation efforts.",{"@graph":14,"@context":72},[15,34,55],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/","Template",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/presentations/","Presentations",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/pm-chartbook-charting-public-debt-with-peder-beck-friis-june-2025/565441/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/pm-chartbook-charting-public-debt-with-peder-beck-friis-june-2025/565441.png","ImageObject",442,249,{"name":42,"@type":43},"4398046744996","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-22","2026-10-13",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":33},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",{"@type":56,"mainEntity":57},"FAQPage",[58,64,68],{"name":59,"@type":60,"acceptedAnswer":61},"What does the chartbook say about current public debt levels in the G7?","Question",{"text":62,"@type":63},"It states that G7 government debt is near the peak levels seen at the end of World War II, reflecting the large scale of public borrowing.","Answer",{"name":65,"@type":60,"acceptedAnswer":66},"How does the chartbook characterize the U.S. debt trajectory?",{"text":67,"@type":63},"It describes the U.S. debt trajectory as increasing for over a decade and suggests that, without policy changes, U.S. debt could approach nearly 200% of GDP by 2050.",{"name":69,"@type":60,"acceptedAnswer":70},"Why does the chartbook expect the U.S. dollar to remain the dominant reserve currency?",{"text":71,"@type":63},"It cites the dollar’s widespread use in global trade and finance and the lack of viable alternatives, including its leading share of global FX transaction volume.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":32,"og:type":74,"og:title":10,"og:site_name":45,"og:description":12},"article",{"robots":76,"canonical":32},"index,follow",{"doc_id":78,"site_id":7},565441,1792437217,{"code":4,"msg":81,"data":82},"success",[83,87,92,97,102,107,112,117,122],{"id":84,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":29,"show_sort_weight":85,"slug":86},11,90,"presentations",{"id":88,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":89,"show_sort_weight":90,"slug":91},12,"Resumes",80,"resumes",{"id":93,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},14,"Invoices",70,"invoices",{"id":98,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},15,"Posters",60,"posters",{"id":103,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},16,"Social 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Templates",5,"papers-templates",{"id":123,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":4,"slug":125},158,"General","general-158",{"code":4,"msg":81,"data":127},{"doc_id":78,"user_id":128,"nickname":42,"user_avatar":11,"doc_module":22,"category_id":84,"category_name":29,"doc_title":10,"doc_description":12,"doc_content":129,"file_id":130,"file_url":131,"file_type":132,"file_size":133,"view_count":33,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":22,"is_downloadable":22,"audit_status":22,"page_count":134,"language":135,"language_code":8,"site_id":7,"html_lang":8,"table_of_contents":136,"faqs":137,"seo_title":138,"seo_description":12,"update_tm":139,"read_time":30},4398046744996,"C HA RT BOO K  \nPM CHARTBOOK  \nCharting Public Debt With  \nPeder Beck-Friis  \nJUNE 2025  \nPeder Beck-Friis, an economist at PIMCO, charts rising government debt and its implications for the U.S. dollar and longer-term Treasury yields.  \nIMPORTANT NOTICE  \nPlease note that this communication contains the opinions of the manager as of the date sent and may not have been updated to reflect real time market developments.  \nAll opinions are subject to change without notice.  \nPublic debt levels are close to record highs  \nPublic debt levels among G7 countries historically have fluctuated. They increased sharply during major crises – World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II – and then diminished during the postwar boom.  \nMore recently, the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic pushed debt ratios to new highs. Today, G7 government debt remains close to the peak levels seen at the end of World War II, highlighting the dramatic scale of public borrowing.  \nElevated interest rates relative to the post-GFC years add to the challenge of servicing high debt levels.  \nSource: IMF Public Finances in Modern History, JST macro-history database (GDP weights), IMF WEO, PIMCO calculations as of June 2025. Note: Chart plots debt-toGDP across G7 countries, GDP-weighted.  \nLast data point is 2025. Refer to Appendix for additional investment strategy, outlook, and risk information.  \n160  \n140  \n120  \n100  \n80  \n60  \n40  \n20  \n0  \nG7 government debt (% of GDP)  \n| \u003Cbr>Pandemic\u003Cbr>|  |  |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| |  |  |  |  | GFC | |\n| WWII |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n| | |  | Great\u003Cbr>Moderation | |  |  |\n| WWI | Great Depression | |  |  |  |  |\n| Bretton Woods |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n\n1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025  \nP I M CO | P M C HA RT BOO K | J U N E 2 0 2 5 | 2  \nU.S. debt trajectory is unsustainable under current policy  \nIn particular, the U.S. government’s debt trajectory has been increasing for over a decade. Projections from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show a rise in debt levels, with each new forecast painting a steeper path. The latest projections suggest that by 2050, U.S. debt could approach nearly 200% of GDP if unchecked. Without changes to current policies, U.S. debt is on an ever-increasing path.  \nSource: CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook as of March 2025 adjusted for the extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts; PIMCO calculations as of June 2025. Note:  \nChart plots CBO projections of U.S. debt at different times. U.S. debt held by the public is smaller than total government debt. Refer to Appendix for additional forecast, outlook, and risk information.  \n200  \n160  \n120  \n80  \n40  \n0  \nU.S. debt held by the public (% of GDP)  \nCBO (2020)  \nCBO (2025) CBO (2016)  \nCBO (2014)  \nCBO (2010)  \nCBO (2006)  \nCBO (2002) CBO (2000)  \n1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050  \nP I M CO | P M C HA RT BOO K | J U N E 2 0 2 5 | 3  \nU.S. dollar almost certain to remain dominant reserve currency given lack of alternatives  \nDespite the unsustainable debt path, the U.S. dollar is almost certain to maintain its position as the world’s dominant reserve currency over the next five years. Its widespread use in global trade and finance, combined with the lack of viable alternatives, supports this status. For example, the dollar accounts for approximately 88% of global foreign exchange transaction volume, reflecting its central role in international markets and reinforcing its resilience amid fiscal concerns.  \nSource: From top to bottom, the sources (and latest data in parentheses) are BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey (2022); PIMCO estimate (2024); IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (3Q 2024); BIS “Revisiting the international role of the US dollar” (2022); BIS Locational Banking Statistics (4Q 2024); Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) (March 2025); BIS Debt Securities Statistics (4Q 2024)  \nU.S. dollar’s share of global markets  \n\n|","cbCairCmyafpasEW","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairCmyafpasEW","pdf",1368128,8,"English","# Public debt levels are close to record highs\n# U.S. debt trajectory is unsustainable under current policy\n# U.S. dollar almost certain to remain dominant reserve currency\n# Rising interest payments may eventually prompt U.S. fiscal consolidation\n# Rising debt associated with a higher term premium","[{\"question\":\"What does the chartbook say about current public debt levels in the G7?\",\"answer\":\"It states that G7 government debt is near the peak levels seen at the end of World War II, reflecting the large scale of public borrowing.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the chartbook characterize the U.S. debt trajectory?\",\"answer\":\"It describes the U.S. debt trajectory as increasing for over a decade and suggests that, without policy changes, U.S. debt could approach nearly 200% of GDP by 2050.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the chartbook expect the U.S. dollar to remain the dominant reserve currency?\",\"answer\":\"It cites the dollar’s widespread use in global trade and finance and the lack of viable alternatives, including its leading share of global FX transaction volume.\"}]","PM Chartbook - Charting Public Debt With Peder Beck-Friis - June 2025 | PDF",1791853816]