[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-seo-563287-105":3,"detail-sidebar-cat-1-en-105":81,"doc-detail-563287-en":127},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"ok",{"site_id":7,"language":8,"slug":9,"title":10,"keywords":11,"description":12,"schema_data":13,"social_meta":74,"head_meta":76,"extra_data":78,"updated_unix":80},105,"en","november-2012-short-term-energy-outlook-market-prices-and-uncertainty-report","November 2012 - Short-Term Energy Outlook - Market Prices and Uncertainty Report","","Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2012 analyzes crude oil market prices and related uncertainty factors. It reports October declines in Brent and WTI front-month futures and links price pressure to weaker-than-expected S&P 500 earnings, lowered 2013 guidance, fiscal-cliff uncertainty, and European economic concerns. The report discusses futures curve structure, including Brent backwardation and WTI contango changes, inventory levels, and the widening Brent–WTI spread driven by transportation costs and supply dynamics, with additional focus on the crude-oil and U.S. dollar relationship, options positioning, and volatility.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/","Template",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/general/","General",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/november-2012-short-term-energy-outlook-market-prices-and-uncertainty-report/563287/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/november-2012-short-term-energy-outlook-market-prices-and-uncertainty-report/563287.png","ImageObject",442,249,{"name":42,"@type":43},"Emma Wilson","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-30","2026-10-12",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":55},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",10,{"@type":57,"mainEntity":58},"FAQPage",[59,65,69],{"name":60,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":62},"What happened to Brent and WTI front-month crude oil prices in October 2012?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"Brent and WTI front-month futures declined in October, with most of the drop occurring at the end of the month. They settled at $108.17 (Brent) and $87.09 (WTI) per barrel on November 1, the lowest levels since early August 2012.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"How do backwardation and contango differ in the Brent and WTI futures curves?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"Backwardation occurs when near-term prices are higher than later delivery prices, and it decreased slightly for Brent. Contango occurs when near-term prices are lower than later delivery prices, and the amount of contango in the WTI curve increased during October.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"What factors are cited for the long-term spread between Brent and WTI futures contracts?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"The differential is described as indicating expectations that transportation constraints may ease but not disappear, with insufficient pipeline infrastructure to move oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast, potential mismatches between crude types and refining capacity, and declining North Sea production all contributing to the spread.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":32,"og:type":75,"og:title":10,"og:site_name":45,"og:description":12},"article",{"robots":77,"canonical":32},"index,follow",{"doc_id":79,"site_id":7},563287,1792093504,{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":83},"success",[84,89,94,99,104,109,114,119,124],{"id":85,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":86,"show_sort_weight":87,"slug":88},11,"Presentations",90,"presentations",{"id":90,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":91,"show_sort_weight":92,"slug":93},12,"Resumes",80,"resumes",{"id":95,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},14,"Invoices",70,"invoices",{"id":100,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},15,"Posters",60,"posters",{"id":105,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},16,"Social Media",50,"social-media",{"id":110,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},17,"Forms",40,"forms",{"id":115,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},18,"Letters",30,"letters",{"id":120,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":121,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},21,"Paper Templates",5,"papers-templates",{"id":125,"doc_module":22,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":29,"show_sort_weight":4,"slug":126},158,"general-158",{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":128},{"doc_id":79,"user_id":129,"nickname":42,"user_avatar":130,"doc_module":22,"category_id":125,"category_name":29,"doc_title":10,"doc_description":12,"doc_content":131,"file_id":132,"file_url":133,"file_type":134,"file_size":135,"view_count":55,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":22,"is_downloadable":22,"audit_status":22,"page_count":55,"language":136,"language_code":8,"site_id":7,"html_lang":8,"table_of_contents":137,"faqs":138,"seo_title":139,"seo_description":12,"update_tm":140,"read_time":33},3848291630094,"https://eur-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_085a072bc5b1113ac321206ff7593b45","November 2012  \nShort-Term Energy Outlook  \nMarket Prices and Uncertainty Report1  Crude Oil  \nPrices: Crude oil prices decreased slightly in October with most of the decline coming atthe end of the month. The Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) front month futures contracts decreased by $4 and $5 per barrel, respectively, since October 1 and settled at $108.17 and $87.09 dollars per barrel on November 1 (Figure 1) . These are the lowest levels for both crude oil benchmarks since the beginning of August 2012.  \nThe downward price pressure coincided with third quarter earnings announcements from companies in the S&P 500 that were below market expectations. Many companies also lowered their earnings guidance for the first half of 2013, citing uncertainty over the fiscal cliff in the U.S. (a combination of scheduled tax increases and reduced government spending scheduled to take effect in the first quarter of 2013) as well as concerns over the European economy. Eurozone unemployment reached a 2012 high of 11.6 percent in October and several Purchasing Managers’ Indices (a leading economic indicator) are still showing contraction in the manufacturing sectors of European economies.  \n1 This is a regular monthly companion to the EIA Short‐Term Energy Outlook  \n([http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/](http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/))  \nContact: James Preciado ([james.preciado@eia.gov](james.preciado@eia.gov))  \nU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short‐Term Energy Outlook November 2012 1  \nBackwardation in the Brent futures curve (when near term prices are higher than prices for delivery further in the future) decreased slightly over the last month. The 1st – 13th spread for Brent contracts settled at $5.59 per barrel on November 1, $1.00 per barrel lower than levels on October 1 (Figure 2) . Production issues during September and October in the North Sea contributed to recent increases in backwardation in the Brent futures curve. Recent announcements of several oil fields ending maintenance periods, as well as builds of global crude oil inventories forecasted for the fourth quarter of 2012, have recently eased some of the tightness in the Brent market.  \nThe amount of contango (when near‐term prices are less than price farther in the future) in the WTI futures curve increased during October. Inventories at the delivery point for the futures contract in Cushing, OK were 43.4 million barrels for the week ending October 26, about 11 million barrels higher than at this time last year, and have put downward pressure on front month WTI futures prices.  \nThe difference (spread) between the front month Brent and WTI futures contracts climbed to its highest level so far this year – nearly $24 per barrel on October 29– before settling at about $21 per barrel on November 1. The spread between Brent and WTI prices is indicative of the significant transportation costs of moving additional barrels of crude oil from Cushing, OK to the U.S. Gulf coast and recent lower supply from Brent crude oil streams (Figure 3) .  \nThe spread between the two benchmarks for delivery in December 2015 is considerably lower than the current spread, but remains in the $7.50 to $9.50 range. The differential between these two long‐dated crude oil futures contracts most likely indicates a market expectation that current transportation constraints are likely to ease but not disappear over that period. Insufficient pipeline infrastructure to move oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast from increasing areas of production in PADD II, potential mis‐matches between crude oil types and U.S. Gulf Coast refining capacity as well as declining production in the North Sea could all be contributing to the long‐term spread.  \nU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short‐Term Energy Outlook November 2012 2  \nCrude Oil and the U.S. Dollar: The typical inverse relationship between the price of crude oil and the value of the U.S. dollar returned in October. The U.S. dollar index (a weigh","cbCaicsdCnjeY6eJ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaicsdCnjeY6eJ","pdf",400457,"English","# Crude Oil Prices\n## Brent and WTI front-month futures performance\n## Economic and earnings-related uncertainty\n# Brent and WTI Futures Curve Structure\n## Backwardation in the Brent curve\n## Contango in the WTI curve\n## Brent–WTI spread and transportation costs\n# Crude Oil and the U.S. Dollar\n## Inverse relationship in October\n# Crude Oil Option Open Interest and Volatility\n## Put/call open interest changes\n## Implied volatility for Brent and WTI\n# Market-Derived Probabilities","[{\"question\":\"What happened to Brent and WTI front-month crude oil prices in October 2012?\",\"answer\":\"Brent and WTI front-month futures declined in October, with most of the drop occurring at the end of the month. They settled at $108.17 (Brent) and $87.09 (WTI) per barrel on November 1, the lowest levels since early August 2012.\"},{\"question\":\"How do backwardation and contango differ in the Brent and WTI futures curves?\",\"answer\":\"Backwardation occurs when near-term prices are higher than later delivery prices, and it decreased slightly for Brent. Contango occurs when near-term prices are lower than later delivery prices, and the amount of contango in the WTI curve increased during October.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are cited for the long-term spread between Brent and WTI futures contracts?\",\"answer\":\"The differential is described as indicating expectations that transportation constraints may ease but not disappear, with insufficient pipeline infrastructure to move oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast, potential mismatches between crude types and refining capacity, and declining North Sea production all contributing to the spread.\"}]","November 2012 - Short-Term Energy Outlook - Market Prices and Uncertainty Report | PDF",1791826494]