[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-1-en-105":3,"doc-detail-190597-en":53,"doc-seo-190597-105":75},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,14,19,24,29,34,39,44,49],{"id":8,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":11,"show_sort_weight":12,"slug":13},11,1,"Template","Presentations",90,"presentations",{"id":15,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":16,"show_sort_weight":17,"slug":18},12,"Resumes",80,"resumes",{"id":20,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":21,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":23},14,"Invoices",70,"invoices",{"id":25,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":26,"show_sort_weight":27,"slug":28},15,"Posters",60,"posters",{"id":30,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":31,"show_sort_weight":32,"slug":33},16,"Social Media",50,"social-media",{"id":35,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":36,"show_sort_weight":37,"slug":38},17,"Forms",40,"forms",{"id":40,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":41,"show_sort_weight":42,"slug":43},18,"Letters",30,"letters",{"id":45,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":46,"show_sort_weight":47,"slug":48},21,"Paper Templates",5,"papers-templates",{"id":50,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":51,"show_sort_weight":4,"slug":52},158,"General","general-158",{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":54},{"doc_id":55,"user_id":56,"nickname":57,"user_avatar":58,"doc_module":9,"category_id":8,"category_name":11,"doc_title":59,"doc_description":60,"doc_content":61,"file_id":62,"file_url":63,"file_type":64,"file_size":65,"view_count":66,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":9,"is_downloadable":9,"audit_status":9,"page_count":67,"language":68,"language_code":69,"site_id":70,"html_lang":69,"table_of_contents":71,"faqs":72,"seo_title":73,"seo_description":60,"update_tm":74,"read_time":66},190597,4810365810221,"Aurora","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d","Moody’s US Public Finance in Focus - National Demographic Shifts","Moody’s US Public Finance in Focus webinar analyzes national demographic shifts and their implications for US public finance. The outlook shows widespread declines in working-age populations across counties and many rated cities and counties, with rural areas and legacy urban regions facing the sharpest reductions. Drivers include domestic outmigration, falling birth rates, and aging-related mortality. The session links working-age declines to slower GDP growth and potential pressure on city and county revenues, while highlighting the growing role of international immigration and natural change.","MO0DY’S  \nUS Public FinanceRATINGSDemographic shifts present challenges for thepublic finance sectorRachel CortezDiana LeeFrank MamoNick Samuels  \n?  \nSchedule &Materials  \nSign-up Once  \nLive Q&A  \nhttps://live.moodys.io/us-public-finance-in-focus-channel  \nGet regular updates on the US Public Financein Focus program  \nEngage with the analysts and get yourquestions answered  \nDiana Lee  \nVice President-Senior Credit OfficerNot-For-Profit Health Care RatingsUS Public Finance GroupNew York  \nFrank Mamo  \nVice President-Senior AnalystLocal Government RatingsUS Public Finance GroupNew York  \nNick Samuels  \nSenior Vice PresidentState Government RatingsUS Public Finance GroupNew York  \n# National demographic shifts\n\nUS Overview  \n# Working-age population\n\n\n|  | Last Decade  \u003Cbr>2012-22   | Next Decade  \u003Cbr>2022-32   |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Share of US Counties with Shrinking Working Age Population   | 71%   | 77%   |\n| Share of US Counties with Growing Working Age Population       |     29%………   | …  \u003Cbr>23%   |\n| Median %Change in Working Age Population   | -4.6%   | -5.5%   |\n\n·77%of the nation's counties are forecast to see adecline in their working-age population in the nextdecade  \nSource:U.S.Census Bureau,Moody's  \n·-5.5%is the median change in working-age populationfor all counties nationwide over the next decade  \nMoody's Rated Cities &Counties  \n·~68%of cities and counties that Moody's currentlyrates are forecast to see working-age populationdeclines in the next decade  \n■Shrinking working age populationSource:US Census Bureau,Moody's  \n# Moody's baseline forecast\n\nWorking-age population  \n·Declines are not specific to one region butwidespread across the country  \n·Rural parts of the country and legacy urbanareas are forecast to see the sharpest declines  \n·Shrinking areas hit by a confluence of factors:  \ni)Domestic outmigration  \nii)Falling birth rates  \niii)Aging population leading to highermortality rates  \nSo  \n%Change in working age population,2022-2032  \n-10%  \n10%  \n:Md'  \nInternational immigration will become increasinglyimportant driver of the US population  \n■Natural change(births less deaths)Net international migration30002                               2  \nSource:US Census Bureau,Moody's  \n# For local governments,working-age population declines:\n\nAre tied to slower GDPgrowth  \nCan constrain city and county revenues  \n—Fastest growing local governments(>10%change in working age population)—0%-10%change in working age population—-10%-0%change in working age population——Fastest shrinking local governments(\u003C-10%change in working age population)  \n100%  \n80%  \nWorking age population%change  \n60%  \n40%  \n2012-2022  \n20%  \n0%  \n-20%  \n-40%  \n-60%  \n-6%  \n-4%  \n0%  \n2%  \n8%  \n-2%  \n4%  \n10%  \n6%  \nGross domestic product CAGR  \n2012-2022  \nSource:US Bureau of Economic Analysis,Moody's  \nMost states will lose population..  \nForecast change in total population,2024-2054  \n60%  \n50%  \n\n|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n\n40%  \n30%  \n20%  \n10%  \n0%  \n-10%  \n-20%  \n-30%  \nz  59    之  0        82    S三岂  号品兰    吉      3    △               55岂  \n….but even the gainers will become older  \nForecast change in 65+population,2024-2054  \nOne-third of Medicaid is already spent on long-term care  \nPercent of Medicaid spent on long-term services and supports","cbCaisNtOSLuvuH5","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaisNtOSLuvuH5","pdf",3449526,7,19,"English","en",105,"# National demographic shifts\n## US Overview\n## Working-age population\n## Moody's baseline forecast\n## For local governments, working-age population declines","[{\"question\":\"What share of US counties is forecast to face working-age population declines over the next decade?\",\"answer\":\"Moody’s forecast indicates 77% of US counties will see a decline in working-age population in the next decade.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors contribute to the shrinking working-age population?\",\"answer\":\"The document attributes declines to domestic outmigration, falling birth rates, and an aging population leading to higher mortality rates.\"},{\"question\":\"How do working-age population declines affect local governments?\",\"answer\":\"The webinar links declines to slower GDP growth and the potential to constrain city and county revenues.\"}]","Moody’s US Public Finance in Focus - National Demographic Shifts | PDF",1788403614,{"code":4,"msg":76,"data":77},"ok",{"site_id":70,"language":69,"slug":78,"title":59,"keywords":79,"description":60,"schema_data":80,"social_meta":136,"head_meta":138,"extra_data":140,"updated_unix":74},"moodys-us-public-finance-in-focus-national-demographic-shifts","",{"@graph":81,"@context":135},[82,98,118],{"@type":83,"itemListElement":84},"BreadcrumbList",[85,89,92,95],{"item":86,"name":87,"@type":88,"position":9},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":90,"name":10,"@type":88,"position":91},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/",2,{"item":93,"name":11,"@type":88,"position":94},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/presentations/",3,{"item":96,"name":59,"@type":88,"position":97},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/moodys-us-public-finance-in-focus-national-demographic-shifts/190597/",4,{"url":96,"name":59,"@type":99,"image":100,"author":105,"headline":59,"publisher":107,"fileFormat":110,"inLanguage":69,"description":60,"dateModified":111,"datePublished":112,"encodingFormat":110,"isAccessibleForFree":113,"interactionStatistic":114},"DigitalDocument",{"url":101,"@type":102,"width":103,"height":104},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/moodys-us-public-finance-in-focus-national-demographic-shifts/190597.png","ImageObject",442,249,{"name":57,"@type":106},"Person",{"url":86,"name":108,"@type":109},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-04","2026-09-03",true,{"@type":115,"interactionType":116,"userInteractionCount":66},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":117},"ViewAction",{"@type":119,"mainEntity":120},"FAQPage",[121,127,131],{"name":122,"@type":123,"acceptedAnswer":124},"What share of US counties is forecast to face working-age population declines over the next decade?","Question",{"text":125,"@type":126},"Moody’s forecast indicates 77% of US counties will see a decline in working-age population in the next decade.","Answer",{"name":128,"@type":123,"acceptedAnswer":129},"What factors contribute to the shrinking working-age population?",{"text":130,"@type":126},"The document attributes declines to domestic outmigration, falling birth rates, and an aging population leading to higher mortality rates.",{"name":132,"@type":123,"acceptedAnswer":133},"How do working-age population declines affect local governments?",{"text":134,"@type":126},"The webinar links declines to slower GDP growth and the potential to constrain city and county revenues.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":96,"og:type":137,"og:title":59,"og:site_name":108,"og:description":60},"article",{"robots":139,"canonical":96},"index,follow",{"doc_id":55,"site_id":70}]