[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-1-en-105":3,"doc-seo-563492-105":53,"doc-detail-563492-en":127},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,14,19,24,29,34,39,44,49],{"id":8,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":11,"show_sort_weight":12,"slug":13},11,1,"Template","Presentations",90,"presentations",{"id":15,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":16,"show_sort_weight":17,"slug":18},12,"Resumes",80,"resumes",{"id":20,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":21,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":23},14,"Invoices",70,"invoices",{"id":25,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":26,"show_sort_weight":27,"slug":28},15,"Posters",60,"posters",{"id":30,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":31,"show_sort_weight":32,"slug":33},16,"Social Media",50,"social-media",{"id":35,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":36,"show_sort_weight":37,"slug":38},17,"Forms",40,"forms",{"id":40,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":41,"show_sort_weight":42,"slug":43},18,"Letters",30,"letters",{"id":45,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":46,"show_sort_weight":47,"slug":48},21,"Paper Templates",5,"papers-templates",{"id":50,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":51,"show_sort_weight":4,"slug":52},158,"General","general-158",{"code":4,"msg":54,"data":55},"ok",{"site_id":56,"language":57,"slug":58,"title":59,"keywords":60,"description":61,"schema_data":62,"social_meta":120,"head_meta":122,"extra_data":124,"updated_unix":126},105,"en","monthly-gold-monitor-may-2025","Monthly Gold Monitor - May 2025","","Monthly Gold Monitor analyzes gold’s higher price regime through a structured outlook for 2025, framing base, bull, and bear scenarios with probability weights. It highlights that Comex money managers reduced net length, while ETF inflows slowed versus early-year momentum, without triggering a major futures price breakdown. The report links demand support to haven/alt-fiat dynamics, FX and rates effects, equity volatility, and liquidity channels, and updates macro considerations for possible moves toward US$4,000 and beyond under specific trade and inflation uncertainty conditions.",{"@graph":63,"@context":119},[64,80,102],{"@type":65,"itemListElement":66},"BreadcrumbList",[67,71,74,77],{"item":68,"name":69,"@type":70,"position":9},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":72,"name":10,"@type":70,"position":73},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/",2,{"item":75,"name":51,"@type":70,"position":76},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/general/",3,{"item":78,"name":59,"@type":70,"position":79},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/monthly-gold-monitor-may-2025/563492/",4,{"url":78,"name":59,"@type":81,"image":82,"author":87,"headline":59,"publisher":90,"fileFormat":93,"inLanguage":57,"description":61,"dateModified":94,"datePublished":95,"encodingFormat":93,"isAccessibleForFree":96,"interactionStatistic":97},"DigitalDocument",{"url":83,"@type":84,"width":85,"height":86},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/monthly-gold-monitor-may-2025/563492.png","ImageObject",442,249,{"name":88,"@type":89},"Cart","Person",{"url":68,"name":91,"@type":92},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-03","2026-10-12",true,{"@type":98,"interactionType":99,"userInteractionCount":101},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":100},"ViewAction",7,{"@type":103,"mainEntity":104},"FAQPage",[105,111,115],{"name":106,"@type":107,"acceptedAnswer":108},"What price ranges does the report use for its 2025 base, bull, and bear cases?","Question",{"text":109,"@type":110},"The base case targets US$3,100-3,500/oz (45%), the bull case targets US$3,500-3,900/oz (35%), and the bear case targets US$2,700-3,100/oz (20%).","Answer",{"name":112,"@type":107,"acceptedAnswer":113},"Why doesn’t the fall in Comex managed money net length imply a gold futures price collapse?",{"text":114,"@type":110},"The report notes that both Comex managed money net length and gold ETF physical holdings have moved, but these shifts have not produced a meaningful gold futures price breakdown, suggesting room for investors to reengage gold longs later in 2025.",{"name":116,"@type":107,"acceptedAnswer":117},"What macro drivers are cited for a potential transition to a higher gold price regime above US$3,000/oz?",{"text":118,"@type":110},"It cites heightened world trade policy uncertainty between the US and China, scenarios such as stagflation and de-dollarization, and factors affecting FX/rates, equity volatility, and liquidity, all of which bolster bullish sentiment toward gold.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":78,"og:type":121,"og:title":59,"og:site_name":91,"og:description":61},"article",{"robots":123,"canonical":78},"index,follow",{"doc_id":125,"site_id":56},563492,1792092730,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":128},{"doc_id":125,"user_id":129,"nickname":88,"user_avatar":130,"doc_module":9,"category_id":50,"category_name":51,"doc_title":59,"doc_description":61,"doc_content":131,"file_id":132,"file_url":133,"file_type":134,"file_size":135,"view_count":101,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":9,"is_downloadable":9,"audit_status":9,"page_count":136,"language":137,"language_code":57,"site_id":56,"html_lang":57,"table_of_contents":138,"faqs":139,"seo_title":140,"seo_description":61,"update_tm":141,"read_time":73},18829141979164,"https://eur-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_6f874abed73319feea01a86fa6f0fab8","Gold Team Authors  \nAakash Doshi  \nHead of Gold Strategy  \nDiego Andrade  \nSenior Gold Strategist  \nMohamad Abukhalaf  \nGold Strategist  \nGold’s Chart of the Month  \nFigure 1 : Comex Gold Money Manager Net Length (normalized for open interest), and Gold Futures Prices  \nMay 2025  \nMonthly Gold Monitor  \nA Higher Price Regime  \n- We tweak our gold price outlook and widen the ranges to US$400/oz from US$300/oz. This is on the back of a higher gold price and price volatility regime. Importantly, we think bullion trading has found a new baseline ‘floor price’ at US$3,000-3,100/oz.  \n- Our base case scenario (45%) is for trading to stay at record levels in 2025 at US$3,100- 3,500/oz. Our bull case outlook (35%) suggests markets could approach US$4,000/oz, shifting to a higher US$3,500-3,900/oz range in 2H 2025. An extended global trade war – even if isolated to US-China – should buttress demand for gold as a haven and alt-fiat asset. Our bear case (20%) of US$2,700-3,100/oz accounts for profit-taking and a tail risk that global tariff wars and inflation risks resolve in 2025 , as financial markets force the White House to shift course.  \n- On balance, post-Liberation Day trade policies have enhanced the case for gold investment in 2025 by concurrently filtering through the market uncertainty, FX/rates, US/global economic growth order, equity volatility, and liquidity channels. However, the feverish pace of Western gold investment demand observed during the first 14 weeks of the year may stabilize in 2Q. In our view, some consolidation could be healthier for the gold market over the medium term.  \nComex Gold MM Normalized Net Length  Gold Futures Price  \nSource: Comex, CFTC, State Street Global Advisors, as of April 22, 2025  \nInformation Classification: General  \nChart of the Month Highlights  \n\n| • | Comex Gold money managers cut futures/options net length to their lowest levels YTD in late |\n| --- | --- |\n|  | April. Following the strongest 1Q since 2022, global gold ETF inflows in April also ran at half of the pace of February and March in tonnage volumes.1 |\n| • | We don’t believe this reflects a bearish turn in investor sentiment towards gold or expectations of a swift resolution of global trade tensions. But it could represent some fatigue in the feverish pace of the gold price rally during the first 12-14 weeks of the year amid some profit-taking from Western investors. |\n| • | Gold price consolidation and portfolio rebalancing activity is probably healthy for the market over the longer run. Global gold ETF physical holdings are still down 18-20% from their 2020 pandemic peaks.2 And the sharp fall in managed money net length on Comex has not prompted a meaningful gold futures price collapse. Both of these factors suggest plenty of scope for investors to reengage gold longs as they assess macro market conditions into 2H 2025. |\n\nMacro/Forecast Update  \nIs US$3,000-4,000/oz the new normal for gold?  \nThere is a strong tactical and strategic case to be made that the gold market has transitioned to a higher price regime north of US$3,000/oz and could even test US$4,000/oz-$5,000/oz over the next 12-24 months in certain macro scenarios (e.g. stagflation and accelerated de-dollarization) . Heightened policy uncertainty surrounding world trade—particularly between the two largest economies (US, China) representing ~45% of global nominal GDP3—has only exacerbated bullish sentiment towards the yellow metal. We present three discreet scenarios that frame our outlook this month:  \nScenario 1 (Base Case at 45% probability): US$3,100-3,500/oz  \n• Harsher trade and tariff rates are rolled back , including between US-China. But policy uncertainty and tensions remain on the front foot for the balance of 2025.  \n• Investors find a bottom in equities and the US dollar. But asset market volatility stays elevated versus the 2023-1H 2024 period of vol compression.  \n• The Fed is limited in its ability to cut policy rates due to inflation uncerta","cbCaiuuJB4NKDjtb","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiuuJB4NKDjtb","pdf",281411,6,"English","# Gold’s Chart of the Month Highlights\n# Macro/Forecast Update\n## Is US$3,000-4,000/oz the new normal for gold?\n## Scenario 1 (Base Case at 45% probability): US$3,100-3,500/oz\n## Scenario 2 (bull case at 35% probability): US$3,500-3,900/oz\n## Scenario 3 (bear case at 20% probability): US$2,700-3,100/oz","[{\"question\":\"What price ranges does the report use for its 2025 base, bull, and bear cases?\",\"answer\":\"The base case targets US$3,100-3,500/oz (45%), the bull case targets US$3,500-3,900/oz (35%), and the bear case targets US$2,700-3,100/oz (20%).\"},{\"question\":\"Why doesn’t the fall in Comex managed money net length imply a gold futures price collapse?\",\"answer\":\"The report notes that both Comex managed money net length and gold ETF physical holdings have moved, but these shifts have not produced a meaningful gold futures price breakdown, suggesting room for investors to reengage gold longs later in 2025.\"},{\"question\":\"What macro drivers are cited for a potential transition to a higher gold price regime above US$3,000/oz?\",\"answer\":\"It cites heightened world trade policy uncertainty between the US and China, scenarios such as stagflation and de-dollarization, and factors affecting FX/rates, equity volatility, and liquidity, all of which bolster bullish sentiment toward gold.\"}]","Monthly Gold Monitor - May 2025 | PDF",1791836028]