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The table of contents outlines a full sequence of chapters, from foundational probability and belief revision to bias, planning, reciprocity, self-awareness, and impulse control. It then develops topics such as the scientific method, leadership and coordination, humanism, social status dynamics, experiments like Stanford Prison, and taboo tradeoffs, extending into self-actualization and aftermath themes.",{"@graph":63,"@context":118},[64,80,101],{"@type":65,"itemListElement":66},"BreadcrumbList",[67,71,74,77],{"item":68,"name":69,"@type":70,"position":9},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":72,"name":10,"@type":70,"position":73},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/",2,{"item":75,"name":51,"@type":70,"position":76},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/general/",3,{"item":78,"name":59,"@type":70,"position":79},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-rationality-chapter-1-one-a-day-of-very-low-probability/277066/",4,{"url":78,"name":59,"@type":81,"image":82,"author":87,"headline":59,"publisher":90,"fileFormat":93,"inLanguage":57,"description":61,"dateModified":94,"datePublished":95,"encodingFormat":93,"isAccessibleForFree":96,"interactionStatistic":97},"DigitalDocument",{"url":83,"@type":84,"width":85,"height":86},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-rationality-chapter-1-one-a-day-of-very-low-probability/277066.png","ImageObject",442,249,{"name":88,"@type":89},"Angel","Person",{"url":68,"name":91,"@type":92},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-09-20","2026-09-15",true,{"@type":98,"interactionType":99,"userInteractionCount":9},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":100},"ViewAction",{"@type":102,"mainEntity":103},"FAQPage",[104,110,114],{"name":105,"@type":106,"acceptedAnswer":107},"How does the work treat belief and probability in uncertain situations?","Question",{"text":108,"@type":109},"It starts from low-probability scenarios and develops ideas about what to believe when evidence conflicts with prior expectations, including belief revision themes such as “Everything I Believe Is False.”","Answer",{"name":111,"@type":106,"acceptedAnswer":112},"Which cognitive biases and planning errors are emphasized?",{"text":113,"@type":109},"The contents highlight the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the Fundamental Attribution Error, the Planning Fallacy, positive bias, egocentric bias, and multiple sections on noticing confusion and rationalization.",{"name":115,"@type":106,"acceptedAnswer":116},"What long-running social and ethical dynamics are covered after the early rationality foundations?",{"text":117,"@type":109},"Later chapters address coordination problems, status differentials, group work, empathy, humanism, personhood theory, utilitarian priorities, roles, and taboo tradeoffs, culminating in aftermath and self-actualization arcs.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":78,"og:type":120,"og:title":59,"og:site_name":91,"og:description":61},"article",{"robots":122,"canonical":78},"index,follow",{"doc_id":124,"site_id":56},277066,1789497535,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":127},{"doc_id":124,"user_id":128,"nickname":88,"user_avatar":129,"doc_module":9,"category_id":50,"category_name":51,"doc_title":59,"doc_description":61,"doc_content":130,"file_id":131,"file_url":132,"file_type":133,"file_size":134,"view_count":73,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":9,"is_downloadable":9,"audit_status":9,"page_count":135,"language":136,"language_code":57,"site_id":56,"html_lang":57,"table_of_contents":137,"faqs":138,"seo_title":139,"seo_description":61,"update_tm":125,"read_time":140},687207412472,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d","*** ***  \nHARRY POTTER AND THE  \nMETHODS OF RATIONALITY  \nby Eliezer Yudkowsky  \n* 1 *  \nchapters 1–122 plus omake files 1–4  \nBased on the characters of  \nJ. K. ROWLING  \nand her books:  \nHarry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone Year One at Hogwarts Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets Year Two at Hogwarts Harry Potter and the Prisoner ofAzkaban Year Three at Hogwarts Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire Year Four at Hogwarts Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Year Five at Hogwarts Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Year Six at Hogwarts Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Year Seven at Hogwarts  \nHARRY POTTER AND THE METHODS OF RATIONALITY  \nBY  \nELIEZER YUDKOWSKY  \nFind the original text at: [http://hpmor.com](http://hpmor.com)  \nCONTENTS  \nONE A Day of Very Low Probability— 1 TWO Everything I Believe Is False—9 THREE  \nComparing Reality To Its Alternatives— 15 FOUR The Efficient Market Hypothesis— 21  \nFIVE  \nThe Fundamental Attribution Error— 27  \nSIX The Planning Fallacy— 37  \nSEVEN Reciprocation—67  \nEIGHT Positive Bias—97  \nNINE Self Awareness, part i— 115  \nTEN Self Awareness, part ii— 123  \nTWELVE Impulse Control— 135  \nTHIRTEEN Asking the Wrong Questions— 147  \nFOURTEEN The Unknown and the Unknowable— 169  \nFIFTEEN Conscientiousness— 185  \nSIXTEEN Lateral Thinking— 197  \nSEVENTEEN Locating the Hypothesis— 217  \nEIGHTEEN Dominance Hierarchies— 255  \nNINETEEN Delayed Gratification— 285  \nTWENTY Bayes’s Theorem— 309  \nTWENTY-ONE Rationalization— 329  \nTWENTY-TWO The Scientific Method— 349  \nTWENTY-THREE Belief in Belief— 375  \nTWENTY-FOUR  \nMachiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis— 395 TWENTY-FIVE Hold Off on Proposing Solutions—409 TWENTY-SIX Noticing Confusion—427  \nTWENTY-SEVEN Empathy—447  \nTWENTY-EIGHT Reductionism—477  \nTWENTY-NINE Egocentric Bias—503  \nTHIRTY Working in Groups, part i—523  \nTHIRTY-ONE Working in Groups, part ii—547  \nTHIRTY-TWO  \nInterlude: Personal Financial Management—551 THIRTY-THREE Coordination Problems, part i—557 THIRTY-FOUR Coordination Problems, part iii—589 THIRTY-FIVE Coordination Problems, part iii—603  \nTHIRTY-SIX Status Differentials—619  \nTHIRTY-SEVEN Interlude: Crossing the Boundary—633  \nTHIRTY-EIGHT The Cardinal Sin—637  \nTHIRTY-NINE Pretending to be Wise, part i—647  \nFORTY  \nPretending to be Wise, part ii—671  \nFORTY-ONE Frontal Override—677  \nFORTY-TWO Courage—687  \nFORTY-THREE Humanism, part i—697  \nFORTY-FOUR Humanism, part ii—719  \nFORTY-FIVE Humanism, part iii—725  \nFORTY-SIX Humanism, part iv—737  \nFORTY-SEVEN Personhood Theory—751  \nFORTY-EIGHT Utilitarian Priorities—785  \nFORTY-NINE Prior Information—795  \nFIFTY Self Centeredness— 809  \nFIFTY-ONE  \nThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part i— 821 FIFTY-TWO  \nThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part ii— 831  \nFIFTY-THREE The Stanford Prison Experiment, part iii— 843  \nFIFTY-FOUR  \nThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part iv— 849  \nFIFTY-FIVE The Stanford Prison Experiment, part v— 867 FIFTY-SIX tspe, part vi: Constrained Optimization— 887 FIFTY-SEVENtspe, part vii: Constrained Cognition— 899 FIFTY-EIGHT tspe, part viii: Constrained Cognition—913 FIFTY-NINE tspe, part ix: Curiosity—927  \nSIXTY  \nThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part x—943 SIXTY-ONE tspe, part xi: Secrecy and Openness—955 SIXTY-TWO The Stanford Prison Experiment, Final—975  \nSIXTY-THREE  \nThe Stanford Prison Experiment, Aftermaths—991 SIXTY-FIVE Contagious Lies— 1035  \nSIXTY-SIX Self Actualization, part i— 1049  \nSIXTY-SEVEN Self Actualization, part ii— 1055  \nSIXTY-EIGHT Self Actualization, part iii— 1067  \nSIXTY-NINE Self Actualization, part iv— 1081  \nSEVENTY Self Actualization, part v— 1093  \nSEVENTY-ONESelf Actualization, part vi— 1109  \nSEVENTY-TWO sa, part vii: Plausible Deniability— 1123  \nSEVENTY-THREE sa, part viii: The Sacred and the Mundane— 1149  \nSEVENTY-FOUR sa, part ix: Escalation of Conflicts— 1165  \nSEVENTY-FIVE sa, part x: Responsibility— 1195  \nSEVENTY-SIX  \nSelf-Actualization, Aftermaths: Surface Appearances— 1213  \nSEVENTY-SEVEN  \nInterlude with ","cbCaicmmc6MEmFq2","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaicmmc6MEmFq2","pdf",6305077,2022,"English","# ONE A Day of Very Low Probability\n# TWO Everything I Believe Is False\n# THREE Comparing Reality To Its Alternatives\n# FOUR The Efficient Market Hypothesis\n# FIVE The Fundamental Attribution Error\n# SIX The Planning Fallacy\n# SEVEN Reciprocation\n# EIGHT Positive Bias\n# NINE Self Awareness, part i\n# TEN Self Awareness, part ii\n# TWELVE Impulse Control\n# THIRTEEN Asking the Wrong Questions\n# FOURTEEN The Unknown and the Unknowable\n# FIFTEEN Conscientiousness\n# SIXTEEN Lateral Thinking\n# SEVENTEEN Locating the Hypothesis\n# EIGHTEEN Dominance Hierarchies\n# NINETEEN Delayed Gratification\n# TWENTY Bayes’s Theorem\n# TWENTY-ONE Rationalization\n# TWENTY-TWO The Scientific Method\n# TWENTY-THREE Belief in Belief\n# TWENTY-FOUR Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis\n# TWENTY-FIVE Hold Off on Proposing Solutions\n# TWENTY-SIX Noticing Confusion\n# TWENTY-SEVEN Empathy\n# TWENTY-EIGHT Reductionism\n# TWENTY-NINE Egocentric Bias\n# THIRTY Working in Groups, part i\n# THIRTY-ONE Working in Groups, part ii\n# THIRTY-TWO Interlude: Personal Financial Management\n# THIRTY-THREE Coordination Problems, part i\n# THIRTY-FOUR Coordination Problems, part iii\n# THIRTY-FIVE Coordination Problems, part iii\n# THIRTY-SIX Status Differentials\n# THIRTY-SEVEN Interlude: Crossing the Boundary\n# THIRTY-EIGHT The Cardinal Sin\n# THIRTY-NINE Pretending to be Wise, part i\n# FORTY Pretending to be Wise, part ii\n# FORTY-ONE Frontal Override\n# FORTY-TWO Courage\n# FORTY-THREE Humanism, part i\n# FORTY-FOUR Humanism, part ii\n# FORTY-FIVE Humanism, part iii\n# FORTY-SIX Humanism, part iv\n# FORTY-SEVEN Personhood Theory\n# FORTY-EIGHT Utilitarian Priorities\n# FORTY-NINE Prior Information\n# FIFTY Self Centeredness\n# FIFTY-ONE The Stanford Prison Experiment, part i\n# FIFTY-TWO The Stanford Prison Experiment, part ii\n# FIFTY-THREE The Stanford Prison Experiment, part iii\n# FIFTY-FOUR The Stanford Prison Experiment, part iv\n# FIFTY-FIVE The Stanford Prison Experiment, part v\n# FIFTY-SIX tspe, part vi: Constrained Optimization\n# FIFTY-SEVEN tspe, part vii: Constrained Cognition\n# FIFTY-EIGHT tspe, part viii: Constrained Cognition\n# FIFTY-NINE tspe, part ix: Curiosity\n# SIXTY The Stanford Prison Experiment, part x\n# SIXTY-ONE tspe, part xi: Secrecy and Openness\n# SIXTY-TWO The Stanford Prison Experiment, Final\n# SIXTY-THREE The Stanford Prison Experiment, Aftermaths\n# SIXTY-FIVE Contagious Lies\n# SIXTY-SIX Self Actualization, part i\n# SIXTY-SEVEN Self Actualization, part ii\n# SIXTY-EIGHT Self Actualization, part iii\n# SIXTY-NINE Self Actualization, part iv\n# SEVENTY Self Actualization, part v\n# SEVENTY-ONE Self Actualization, part vi\n# SEVENTY-TWO sa, part vii: Plausible Deniability\n# SEVENTY-THREE sa, part viii: The Sacred and the Mundane\n# SEVENTY-FOUR sa, part ix: Escalation of Conflicts\n# SEVENTY-FIVE sa, part x: Responsibility\n# SEVENTY-SIX Self-Actualization, Aftermaths: Surface Appearances\n# SEVENTY-SEVEN Interlude with the Confessor: Sunk Costs\n# SEVENTY-EIGHT Taboo Tradeoffs Prelude: Cheating\n# SEVENTY-NINE Taboo Tradeoffs, part i\n# EIGHTY taboo tradeoffs, part ii: The Horns Effect\n# EIGHTY-ONE Taboo Tradeoffs, part iii\n# EIGHTY-TWO Taboo Tradeoffs, part final\n# EIGHTY-THREE Taboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath, part i\n# EIGHTY-FOUR Taboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath, part ii\n# EIGHTY-FIVE taboo tradeoffs, aftermath, part iii: Distance\n# EIGHTY-SIX Multiple Hypothesis Testing\n# EIGHTY-SEVEN Hedonic Awareness\n# EIGHTY-EIGHT Time Pressure, part i\n# EIGHTY-NINE Time Pressure, part ii\n# NINETY Roles, part i\n# NINETY-ONE RoleS, part ii\n# NINETY-TWO Roles, part iii\n# NINETY-THREE Roles, part iv\n# NINETY-FOUR Roles, part v\n# NINETY-FIVE Roles, part vi\n# NINETY-SIX Roles, part vii\n# NINETY-SEVEN Roles, part viii","[{\"question\":\"How does the work treat belief and probability in uncertain situations?\",\"answer\":\"It starts from low-probability scenarios and develops ideas about what to believe when evidence conflicts with prior expectations, including belief revision themes such as “Everything I Believe Is False.”\"},{\"question\":\"Which cognitive biases and planning errors are emphasized?\",\"answer\":\"The contents highlight the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the Fundamental Attribution Error, the Planning Fallacy, positive bias, egocentric bias, and multiple sections on noticing confusion and rationalization.\"},{\"question\":\"What long-running social and ethical dynamics are covered after the early rationality foundations?\",\"answer\":\"Later chapters address coordination problems, status differentials, group work, empathy, humanism, personhood theory, utilitarian priorities, roles, and taboo tradeoffs, culminating in aftermath and self-actualization arcs.\"}]","HARRY POTTER AND THE METHODS OF RATIONALITY - chapter 1 - ONE A Day of Very Low Probability | PDF",708]