[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-1-en-105":3,"doc-seo-563489-105":53,"doc-detail-563489-en":126},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,14,19,24,29,34,39,44,49],{"id":8,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":11,"show_sort_weight":12,"slug":13},11,1,"Template","Presentations",90,"presentations",{"id":15,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":16,"show_sort_weight":17,"slug":18},12,"Resumes",80,"resumes",{"id":20,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":21,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":23},14,"Invoices",70,"invoices",{"id":25,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":26,"show_sort_weight":27,"slug":28},15,"Posters",60,"posters",{"id":30,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":31,"show_sort_weight":32,"slug":33},16,"Social Media",50,"social-media",{"id":35,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":36,"show_sort_weight":37,"slug":38},17,"Forms",40,"forms",{"id":40,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":41,"show_sort_weight":42,"slug":43},18,"Letters",30,"letters",{"id":45,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":46,"show_sort_weight":47,"slug":48},21,"Paper Templates",5,"papers-templates",{"id":50,"doc_module":9,"doc_module_name":10,"category_name":51,"show_sort_weight":4,"slug":52},158,"General","general-158",{"code":4,"msg":54,"data":55},"ok",{"site_id":56,"language":57,"slug":58,"title":59,"keywords":60,"description":61,"schema_data":62,"social_meta":119,"head_meta":121,"extra_data":123,"updated_unix":125},105,"en","commodities-strategy-gold-long-term-safe-haven-outlook-and-near-term-volatility-risks","Commodities Strategy - Gold long-term safe haven outlook and near-term volatility risks","","Gold’s long-term role as a safe haven and a diversifier remains intact despite sharp short-term swings. Speculation is expected to take time to clear as volatility stays elevated. The outlook is revised positively with forecasts rising to USD 4,800/oz in 1Q26 through USD 5,400/oz in 4Q26, while near-term risks include a further sell-off driven by stretched speculative positioning and market frictions.",{"@graph":63,"@context":118},[64,80,101],{"@type":65,"itemListElement":66},"BreadcrumbList",[67,71,74,77],{"item":68,"name":69,"@type":70,"position":9},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":72,"name":10,"@type":70,"position":73},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/",2,{"item":75,"name":11,"@type":70,"position":76},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/presentations/",3,{"item":78,"name":59,"@type":70,"position":79},"https://docshare.wps.com/template/commodities-strategy-gold-long-term-safe-haven-outlook-and-near-term-volatility-risks/563489/",4,{"url":78,"name":59,"@type":81,"image":82,"author":87,"headline":59,"publisher":90,"fileFormat":93,"inLanguage":57,"description":61,"dateModified":94,"datePublished":95,"encodingFormat":93,"isAccessibleForFree":96,"interactionStatistic":97},"DigitalDocument",{"url":83,"@type":84,"width":85,"height":86},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/commodities-strategy-gold-long-term-safe-haven-outlook-and-near-term-volatility-risks/563489.png","ImageObject",442,249,{"name":88,"@type":89},"Cipher","Person",{"url":68,"name":91,"@type":92},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-20","2026-10-12",true,{"@type":98,"interactionType":99,"userInteractionCount":76},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":100},"ViewAction",{"@type":102,"mainEntity":103},"FAQPage",[104,110,114],{"name":105,"@type":106,"acceptedAnswer":107},"What is the document’s core view on gold’s long-term role?","Question",{"text":108,"@type":109},"Gold’s long-term safe-haven and diversification needs remain unchanged despite near-term volatility.","Answer",{"name":111,"@type":106,"acceptedAnswer":112},"How are the gold price forecasts updated for 2026?",{"text":113,"@type":109},"Forecasts are updated to USD 4,800/oz in 1Q26, USD 5,000/oz in 2Q26, USD 5,200/oz in 3Q26, and USD 5,400/oz in 4Q26.",{"name":115,"@type":106,"acceptedAnswer":116},"What risks could lead to further weakness in gold in the near term?",{"text":117,"@type":109},"A further sell-off cannot be ruled out due to outsized speculative positioning and potential liquidation dynamics during periods of volatility.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":78,"og:type":120,"og:title":59,"og:site_name":91,"og:description":61},"article",{"robots":122,"canonical":78},"index,follow",{"doc_id":124,"site_id":56},563489,1792423896,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":127},{"doc_id":124,"user_id":128,"nickname":88,"user_avatar":129,"doc_module":9,"category_id":8,"category_name":11,"doc_title":59,"doc_description":61,"doc_content":130,"file_id":131,"file_url":132,"file_type":133,"file_size":134,"view_count":76,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":9,"is_downloadable":9,"audit_status":9,"page_count":47,"language":135,"language_code":57,"site_id":56,"html_lang":57,"table_of_contents":136,"faqs":137,"seo_title":138,"seo_description":61,"update_tm":139,"read_time":73},687208528416,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_9964176cb1d06d4a9deccf72a44ae3dc","Commodities Strategy  \nGold’s long term safe haven needs intact despite short term intense volatility  \nWednesday, 04 February 2026  \nGlobal Economics & Markets Research [GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com](GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com)[ ](GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com)[www.uob.com.sg/research](www.uob.com.sg/research)  \nHeng Koon How  \nHead of Markets Strategy  \n[Heng.KoonHow@uobgroup.com](Heng.KoonHow@uobgroup.com)  \n▪ Going forward it will take some time for the speculative activity to clear and gold price to steady and settle down. It is important to appreciate that despite the near-term excessive volatility, the long-term safe haven and diversification needs for gold across key investor classes remain unchanged. Global central banks, particularly those from Emerging Markets and Asia remain focused on increasing their strategic allocation into gold.  \n▪ Overall, we reiterate our long-term positive outlook for gold and update our forecasts to USD 4,800 / oz in 1Q26, USD 5,000 / oz in 2Q26, USD 5,200 / oz in 3Q26 and USD 5,400 / oz in 4Q26 . The previous forecast made on 9th Jan was USD 4,400 / oz in 1Q26, USD 4,600 / oz in 2Q26, USD 4,800 / oz in 3Q26 and USD 5,000 / oz in 4Q26 .  \n▪ Despite our positive long-term outlook, it is important to appreciate risks of further near-term volatility. Given the outsized speculative positioning that had been accumulated in the recent run-up, a further near-term sell-off in gold from the “stale bulls” cannot be ruled out.  \nThere was much soul searching after the dramatic rally and subsequent steep plunge in gold price in late-Jan. After starting the year just above USD 4,300 / oz, gold rallied hard to almost USD 5,600 / oz on 28th Jan, only to suffer an intense almost 10% sell-off on 30th Jan back down to USD 4,900 / oz and subsequently collapsing to briefly below USD 4,500 / oz on 2nd Feb. Amidst the extreme whipsaw, gold’s implied volatility jumped above 30%, to levels way above the Covid crisis, but still below the extremes last seen during the GFC.  \nChart 1: Gold's implied volatility goes ballistic  \nSource: Bloomberg, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research  \nJun 02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24  \n Gold 1M Implied Volatility (%)  Gold 3M Implied Volatility (%)  \n Gold 6M Implied Volatility (%)  \nNews reports mostly attributed gold’s steep sell-off back below USD 5,000 / oz to the news of the nomination by President Trump of Kevin Warsh to the role of Federal Reserve Chair. This may be oversimplifying the complex dynamics behind gold’s recent volatility by quite a fair bit.  \nAcross Jan, amidst the strong rally in gold price above USD 5,000 / oz, there were classic signs of increasing froth amidst speculative trading. Specifically, there were significant increases in intra-day whipsaw in gold price, widening of bid-offer spread in gold price, increasing dislocation between gold futures equivalent price in key exchanges like COMEX and SHFE against gold spot price etc. Most importantly, there was an increasing shortage of gold bullion reported across key bullion trading centers across the world as retail investors jumped in and added to the frenzied buying. The jump in open interests in gold futures on COMEX as well as trading volume of GLD ETF on the NYSE was unprecedented.  \nChart 2: Spike in open interests of gold futures on COMEX  \nSource: Bloomberg, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research  \nJan 25 Mar 25 May 25 Jul 25 Sep 25 Nov 25 Jan 26  \n Front Month Comex Gold Futures (USD / oz)  \n Front Month COMEX Gold Futures Open Interest ('000 contracts) -RHS  \nThis unstable mix of speculative froth finally imploded on 30th Jan. Kevin Warsh’s nomination was said to be the excuse to take profit on gold given that he had exhibited cautious hawkish tilts against inflation during his previous successful term as a Fed Governor under then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s term and had questioned the need for Quantitative Easing or a large Fed bal","cbCaigCtlYI2dWCs","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaigCtlYI2dWCs","pdf",327686,"English","# Commodities Strategy\n## Long-term outlook and forecast revisions\n## Risks of further near-term volatility\n## Drivers of the late-January rally and plunge\n## Speculative froth and positioning indicators\n## China crackdown and demand concerns\n## Market mechanics: gamma squeeze and margin changes","[{\"question\":\"What is the document’s core view on gold’s long-term role?\",\"answer\":\"Gold’s long-term safe-haven and diversification needs remain unchanged despite near-term volatility.\"},{\"question\":\"How are the gold price forecasts updated for 2026?\",\"answer\":\"Forecasts are updated to USD 4,800/oz in 1Q26, USD 5,000/oz in 2Q26, USD 5,200/oz in 3Q26, and USD 5,400/oz in 4Q26.\"},{\"question\":\"What risks could lead to further weakness in gold in the near term?\",\"answer\":\"A further sell-off cannot be ruled out due to outsized speculative positioning and potential liquidation dynamics during periods of volatility.\"}]","Commodities Strategy - Gold long-term safe haven outlook and near-term volatility risks | PDF",1791836007]