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It explains the historical origin of the empirical forecasting rules after a 1948 tornado event, and how later research, improved data, and operational experience strengthened the methods. The report emphasizes mesoscale interpretation from macroscale observations, redundancy in analysis and forecasts, and provides specialized terminology, symbols references, and chapter guidance for training and practical 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WEATHER CENTRAL\n\nApproved For Public Release;Distribution Unlimited.  \nPUBLISHED BY  \nAIR WEATHER SERVICE(MAC)UNITED STATES AIR FORCEMAY 1972  \n8023TOM  \nMUT2-383V320  \nY  网  \n239    3099T2A938  \n3907 A HT  \n③A酬    V  \nN01    之37AT2  \nMay 1972  \nAUTHOR'S PREFACE  \nIn March of 1948 at Tinker Air Force Basc,the author,working underLt Col E.J.Fawbush,experienced a tornado that struck the base withoutwarning and caused severe damage.The Commanding General of theOklahoma City Air Materiel Area asked us to try to find a way to forecastsuch occurrences.We analyzed many past cases,searched the existing tornadoliterature and found a report by Showalter and Fulks of the US WeatherBureau most valuable.A week later when synoptic conditions similar to theprevious storm appeared we forecast a tornado to hit the base,and fortunatelyfor us,the forecast verified.Since that time Air Weather Service has been inthe severe-storm forecasting business and I have beer associated with italmost continuously.A number of papers by Fawbush and Miller appeared inthe journals during the 1950s which described the methods used,culminatingin AWS Manual 105-37(2d ed 1956).Since then much research on severestorms has been carried out by the Air Weather Service(AWS)and otheragencies ineluding major contributions by the Severe Local Storms(SELS)unit of the National Weather Service.  \nThough better data(radar,more rapid collection,etc.),electronic dataprocessing,and extensive practical experience have benefited the severe-stormforecaster,the original empirical forecast rules described in[22]and based,in part,on earlier work done by those vitally interested in the field [25,41,  \n45,61,637.are still basically sound,but have under gone modification,refinement,and amplification over the years.Highly significant contributionsin the field of operational severe-storm forecasting have been made by many,especially [5,13,16,28,38,39,40,47,51,593,and progress will continue tobe made by both the research meteorologist and the forecaster faced with day-to-day operational requirements.  \nTo facilitate the training of forecasters newly assigned to the former AWSMilitary Weather Warning Center(MwWC)at Kansas City,Missouri,thefirst AWS Technical Report 200 was compiled in a piecemeal fashion overseveralyears at those times when the elements gave u8 some respite from theforecast room.After careful consideration,it was published for widerdistribution in 1967 since AWSM 105-37 was almost entirely obsolete andlong out of priit.On 1 February 1970.the MWWC was deactivated and thesevere weather responsibility transferred to the AWS Air Force GlobalWeather Central(AFGWC)at Offutt AFB,Nebraska.This move was made totake advantage of the AFGWC computer complex and the programmingtalent available.Since this Lransfer,the AFGWC has continued developmentand refinement of those forecast techniques described in this report withprimary emphasis on the development and use of computerized products.Much curiosity about our automated products and current procedures hasbeen expressed and it is felt that recipients of AFGWC severe weatheradvisories and point warnings would benefit from this updated report.  \nThis report is not intended in itself to describe all about how to forecastsevere storms nor to necessarily equip one to forecast them.The inherentnature of the procedures,with their unavoidable subjective and “experience'element,and the large day-to-day fluctuation in available data,charts,andtechniques used,plus the varied types of synoptic situations precludes settingforth a rigidly fixed outline of charts and procedures.In fact,the originalmanuscript of this report consisted only of a collection of notes for use ascollateral reading by our trainees,with considerable overlapping and gaps.Personnel of the Aerospace Services Di","cbCaiuYxTK7W4uL0","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiuYxTK7W4uL0","pdf",4734367,53,"English","# AUTHOR'S PREFACE\n## Purpose and historical background\n## Forecast philosophy and redundancy\n## Organization and training usage\n## Terminology and symbols references\n## Guidance for using chapters and appendices","[{\"question\":\"What event prompted the development of the severe-storm forecasting approach described in the report?\",\"answer\":\"In 1948 at Tinker Air Force Base, a tornado struck without warning and caused severe damage, leading the authors to seek a way to forecast similar occurrences.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report characterize the forecasting procedures in terms of scientific basis?\",\"answer\":\"Although largely empirical, the procedures are said to be predicated on sound rational or physical bases, with redundancy intended to support forecasting success.\"},{\"question\":\"How is the report intended to be used by forecasters and trainees?\",\"answer\":\"It was prepared to facilitate training for forecasters at the former Military Weather Warning Center, and it notes that chapters are somewhat independent, allowing readers to start from different chapters based on preference.\"}]","ANALYSIS AND SEVERE-STORM FORECASTING PROCEDURES - Chapter 3 | PDF",1791842721,19]