[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111609-en":3,"doc-seo-111609-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111609,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","Zambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Zambia remains in debt distress as external arrears (principal and interest) reached 26 percent of GDP by end-2023. Despite substantial fiscal adjustment, without Eurobond exchange settlement and comparable restructuring agreements with non-bonded commercial creditors, both overall and external debt are assessed as unsustainable. The baseline projects breaches of external debt burden thresholds by wide margins. The analysis highlights weak debt-carrying capacity, limits on non-resident participation, and a judgment of no special adjustment.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) and Costas Christou and Jarkko Turunen (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| ZAMBIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nZambia remains in debt distress. The stock of external arrears (principal and interest) reached 26 percent of GDP by end-year 2023. Despite significant fiscal adjustment, in the absence of the settlement on the Eurobonds exchange and debt restructuring agreements with the non-bonded commercial creditors, Zambia is in overall and external debt distress and public debt remains unsustainable. Under the baseline, all four external debt burden indicators would breach their indicative thresholds by large margins through the medium term.0F 1 The authorities have signed the Memorandum of Understanding with official bilateral creditors on a debt treatment under the G20 Common Framework and have a credible strategy in place to treat commercial creditors on comparable terms. An agreement in principle (AIP) consistent with program parameters and the OCC Comparability of Treatment (CoT) requirements was reached with the Steering Committee of the Ad-Hoc Creditor Committee of Zambia’s Eurobonds holders on March 25, 2024. Under an alternative scenario, where the agreed treatments are applied to the baseline, while other non-bonded commercial claims are treated on comparable terms, debt would be assessed to be sustainable on a forward-looking basis.  \n1 Zambia’s debt-carrying capacity is rated as weak based on the composite indicator (CI) . The composite indicator is calculated using data from the April 2024 WEO and the 2022 CPIA, the latest available.  \nexchange rate by end of the year, the dollar amounts of the stock held by non-resident is decreasing. The authorities are restricting participation of non-residents in the primary market given the debt sustainability risks. In 2024-25, a limit of 5 percent of the face value of gross domestic bonds issuance will be applied in line with the agreement on the restructuring perimeter reached with the OCC in June 2023. By the end of the first quarter in 2024, the 5 percent limit on non-residents participation in the bonds primary market has already been reached.  \n\n|  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered Central government X State and local government Other elements in the general government o/w: Social security fund X o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt X\u003Cbr>X |  |  |\n|  | 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central government plus social security, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt |\n|  |  | \u003Cbr>Default\u003Cbr>Used for the\u003Cbr>analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n|  | 2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. 0 percent of GDP 0.0\u003Cbr>SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/ 2 percent of GDP 12.0 ZCCM-IH purchase of Mopani from Glencore.\u003Cbr>PPP 35 percent of PPP stock 1.4\u003Cbr>Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) 5 percent of GDP  5.0 \u003Cbr>Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP) 18.4 |\n| 1/ The default shock of 2 percent of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the coutnry’s public debt definition (1) . If it is already included in the government debt (1 . ) and risks associated with SoE’s debt not guaranteed by the go","cbCaicvWJsbTn6MU","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaicvWJsbTn6MU","pdf",756501,1,27,"English","en",105,"# Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Debt-carrying capacity and baseline indicators\n## Eurobonds treatment and comparability of terms\n## Non-residents participation limits in bond issuance\n## Public debt coverage and default/shock settings\n## Key program and waiver/financing assurances context\n## Debt stock and debt service overview","[{\"question\":\"Why does Zambia remain in debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"External arrears reached 26 percent of GDP by end-2023, and overall and external debt remain in distress because Eurobond exchange settlement and restructuring agreements with non-bonded commercial creditors are not fully in place.\"},{\"question\":\"How do the baseline projections evaluate Zambia’s external debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, all four external debt burden indicators would breach their indicative thresholds by large margins through the medium term.\"},{\"question\":\"What role does comparability of treatment play in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Authorities signed an MoU for official bilateral creditors under the G20 Common Framework and reached an agreement in principle for commercial creditors, applying comparable terms to support a forward-looking sustainability assessment under an alternative scenario.\"}]",1784490902,68,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"zambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/zambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111609/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why does Zambia remain in debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"External arrears reached 26 percent of GDP by end-2023, and overall and external debt remain in distress because Eurobond exchange settlement and restructuring agreements with non-bonded commercial creditors are not fully in place.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How do the baseline projections evaluate Zambia’s external debt sustainability?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, all four external debt burden indicators would breach their indicative thresholds by large margins through the medium term.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What role does comparability of treatment play in the analysis?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Authorities signed an MoU for official bilateral creditors under the G20 Common Framework and reached an agreement in principle for commercial creditors, applying comparable terms to support a forward-looking sustainability assessment under an alternative scenario.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]