[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111132-en":3,"doc-seo-111132-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111132,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Zambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Zambia remains in debt distress, with external arrears reaching 11½ percent of GDP by end-2022 and continuing to accumulate through 2023 without a signed debt restructuring agreement. Despite significant fiscal adjustment, overall and external debt distress persist and public debt is assessed as unsustainable. Under the baseline, all four external debt burden indicators breach their indicative thresholds by wide margins. While agreement with official bilateral creditors under the G20 Common Framework is in place and commercial creditor discussions progressed, further changes are needed to meet program parameters and OCC comparability requirements; an alternative scenario suggests sustainability on a forward-looking basis.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Costas Christou and Jarkko Turunen (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| ZAMBIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nZambia remains in debt distress. The stock of external arrears reached 11½ percent of GDP by end-year 2022 and continued accumulating in 2023 in the absence of a debt restructuring agreement. Despite significant fiscal adjustment, in the absence of a signed debt restructuring agreement, Zambia is in overall and external debt distress and public debt remains unsustainable. Under the baseline, all four external debt burden indicators would breach their indicative thresholds by large margins through the medium term.1 The authorities have reached an agreement with official bilateral creditors on a debt treatment under the G20 Common Framework, formalized in a Memorandum of Understanding, and have a credible strategy in place to treat commercial creditors on comparable terms. Several rounds of discussions took place with Eurobond holders in October/November 2023. While significant progress has been achieved, adjustments still need to be made to meet both program parameters and the OCC Comparability of Treatment (CoT) requirements. Under an alternative scenario, where the treatment agreed with the official bilateral creditors is applied to the baseline and commercial claims are treated on comparable terms, debt would be assessed to be sustainable on a forward-looking basis.  \n1 Zambia’s debt-carrying capacity is rated as weak based on the composite indicator (CI) . The composite indicator is calculated using data from the October 2023 WEO and the 2022 CPIA, the latest available.  \n1. The coverage of Zambia’s public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt for the purpose of the DSA includes as in the previous DSA the following: i) central government domestic and external debt, including US$1 .5 billion of arrears to external suppliers (fuel and contractors) and central government guaranteed external debt; ii) the nonguaranteed external debt of Zambia Electricity Supply Company (ZESCO), the fiscally important state-owned utility;2 and iii) the domestic and external arrears of the same enterprise. Central bank external debt (including outstanding Fund credit) , together with the debt of social security funds guaranteed by the central government ,3 are also included in the coverage.  \n2. The DSA incorporates non-guaranteed SOE debt in the baseline. In accordance with the LICDSF Guidance Note, given the significant fiscal risks posed by ZESCO, its non-guaranteed external debt (US$93 million at end-2022)4 and outstanding payables to domestic (US$1.5 billion at end-2022) and external (US$139 million at end-2022) independent power producers (IPPs) , are included in the DSA perimeter. The authorities are taking steps to restore ZESCOs’ financial viability over the medium term. As progress is made, the inclusion of its non-guaranteed debt in the DSA debt perimeter will be reassessed. The authorities reported no other outstanding non-guaranteed external debt of nonfinancial SOEs that staff consider to pose a contingent fiscal risk warranting inclusion in the DSA. Local governments in Zambia currently cannot borrow externally without the central government’s guarantee. The authorities confirmed that no extrabudgetary funds with outstanding external debt currently exist.  \n3. The 2021 General SDR allocation has been incorporated into the DSA in line with the staff guidance note.5 The authorities have used the SDR allocation (approved by the IMF in August 2021) to finance the budget over 2022-23;6 in line with their p","cbCaieAYhO3cLewc","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaieAYhO3cLewc","pdf",743868,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment results\n## External arrears and debt distress status\n## Baseline vs alternative scenario\n## Creditor treatment and comparability requirements\n## Debt coverage scope and methodology\n## Key assumptions and data sources","[{\"question\":\"What is Zambia’s overall debt status in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Zambia remains in overall and external debt distress. Public debt is assessed as unsustainable, with continued accumulation of external arrears in 2023.\"},{\"question\":\"What do the baseline results indicate for external debt burden indicators?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, all four external debt burden indicators breach their indicative thresholds by large margins over the medium term.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the alternative scenario affect the sustainability conclusion?\",\"answer\":\"Applying the agreed official bilateral treatment to the baseline and treating commercial claims on comparable terms leads to an assessment of debt sustainability on a forward-looking basis.\"}]",1784488746,63,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"zambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/zambia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111132/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Zambia’s overall debt status in the analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Zambia remains in overall and external debt distress. Public debt is assessed as unsustainable, with continued accumulation of external arrears in 2023.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What do the baseline results indicate for external debt burden indicators?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, all four external debt burden indicators breach their indicative thresholds by large margins over the medium term.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How does the alternative scenario affect the sustainability conclusion?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Applying the agreed official bilateral treatment to the baseline and treating commercial claims on comparable terms leads to an assessment of debt sustainability on a forward-looking basis.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]