[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111615-en":3,"doc-seo-111615-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111615,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","Zambia - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Zambia’s public debt is assessed as sustainable, but the analysis flags a high risk of both overall and external debt distress. The assessment relies on a post-restructuring macro-framework that incorporates official bilateral claim treatment, completion of the Eurobond exchange, agreements in principle with external commercial creditors, and an assumed treatment for residual claims consistent with the authorities’ strategy and program parameters. Under the baseline, external debt-to-exports remains near a declining path while debt service-to-revenue is projected to breach key thresholds in 2025, driven largely by exchange-rate depreciation. Medium-term indicators are expected to improve, with export and growth shocks posing downside risks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) , and Costas Christou and Martin Cihak (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staffs of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| ZAMBIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nZambia’s public debt is assessed as sustainable but remains at high risk of overall and external debt distress. The analysis is based on a full post-restructuring macro-framework, incorporating the treatment of official bilateral claims agreed with Zambia’s Official Creditor Committee (OCC), the completed Eurobond exchange, the agreements in principle (AIP) reached with some external commercial creditors, and under the assumed treatment of residual claims of other external commercial creditors in line with authorities’ restructuring strategy and consistent with program parameters and the comparability of treatment principles. Under the baseline, breaches of the overall and some external debt indicator thresholds remain.1 The present value of external debt-to-exports ratio is expected to decline below the 84 percent threshold—indicating “substantial space to absorb shocks”—by 2027. However, the debt service-to-revenue ratio (DSRR) is projected to breach the 14 percent threshold in 2025 (at 14.7 percent excluding the fuel arrears clearance liability management operation and past due interest on restructured debt)—largely due to exchange rate depreciation. The 2026-31 average DSRR is projected to remain below the threshold, at 13.8 percent, slightly above the 13.4 percent in the previous DSA. Zambia’s debt indicators are projected to improve consistent with a moderate risk of external debt distress in the medium term. Shocks to exports and growth would present downside risks to the debt outlook.  \n1 Zambia’s debt-carrying capacity is weak based on the composite indicator (CI) . The composite indicator is calculated using data from the April 2025 WEO and the 2023 CPIA, the latest available.  \n1. As in the previous DSA, the coverage of Zambia’s public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt for the purpose of the DSA includes the following : (i) central government domestic and external debt, including arrears to external suppliers (fuel and contractors) and central government guaranteed external debt; (ii) the nonguaranteed external debt of Zambia Electricity Supply Company (ZESCO), the fiscally important state-owned utility;2 and (iii) the domestic and external arrears of the same enterprise. Central bank external debt (including outstanding Fund credit), together with the debt of social security funds guaranteed by the central government, is also included in the coverage.3 As in previous DSAs, local governments and SOEs without government guarantees are excluded from the DSA coverage.  \n2. The DSA also incorporates the non-guaranteed external debt of the Zambia Electricity Supply Company (ZESCO), including its domestic and external arrears. In accordance with the LIC-DSF Guidance Note, given the significant fiscal risks posed by ZESCO, a fiscally important state-owned utility, its non-guaranteed external debt, outstanding payables to domestic (US$256 million at end-2024), and external (US$81 million at end-2024) independent power producers (IPPs), are included in the DSA perimeter.4 The authorities are taking steps to restore ZESCO’s financial viability over the medium term. As progress is made, the inclusion of its non-guaranteed debt in the DSA debt perimeter will be reassessed.  \n3. The DSA is conducted on a residency basis. In line with the LIC-DSF Guidance Note, nonresident (NR) holdings of domestic-currency debt (as recorded by the authorities) are treated as external debt for the purpose of this DSA, while recognizing the ","cbCaikHKz6M8xz6A","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaikHKz6M8xz6A","pdf",982120,1,27,"English","en",105,"# Key risk ratings\n## Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Granularity in the risk rating\n# Analytical framework and assumptions\n## Treatment of official and commercial claims\n## Eurobond exchange and agreements in principle\n## Coverage of public and guaranteed debt\n# Baseline projections and threshold breaches\n## External debt-to-exports ratio\n## Debt service-to-revenue ratio\n## Medium-term outlook and shocks","[{\"question\":\"How does the analysis rate Zambia’s debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment concludes that Zambia’s public debt is sustainable, while the overall and external risks of debt distress remain high.\"},{\"question\":\"Which indicators are expected to breach thresholds, and when?\",\"answer\":\"The debt service-to-revenue ratio is projected to breach the 14% threshold in 2025, largely due to exchange-rate depreciation, while the external debt-to-exports ratio is expected to decline below its 84% threshold by 2027.\"},{\"question\":\"What elements are included in the debt coverage for the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The coverage includes central government domestic and external debt (including arrears and central-government guaranteed external debt), selected non-guaranteed ZESCO external debt and related arrears, and other centrally relevant elements; local governments and SOEs without government guarantees are excluded.\"}]",1784490928,68,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"zambia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/zambia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111615/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How does the analysis rate Zambia’s debt sustainability?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The assessment concludes that Zambia’s public debt is sustainable, while the overall and external risks of debt distress remain high.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which indicators are expected to breach thresholds, and when?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The debt service-to-revenue ratio is projected to breach the 14% threshold in 2025, largely due to exchange-rate depreciation, while the external debt-to-exports ratio is expected to decline below its 84% threshold by 2027.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What elements are included in the debt coverage for the analysis?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The coverage includes central government domestic and external debt (including arrears and central-government guaranteed external debt), selected non-guaranteed ZESCO external debt and related arrears, and other centrally relevant elements; local governments and SOEs without government guarantees are excluded.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]