[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111139-en":3,"doc-seo-111139-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111139,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Zambia - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Zambia’s public debt is assessed as sustainable, yet the overall and external debt distress risks remain high. The analysis uses a full post-restructuring macro-framework, incorporating treatment of official bilateral claims, the completed Eurobond exchange, and agreements in principle with external commercial creditors, consistent with restructuring strategy and program parameters. Baseline breaches persist for overall and some external debt indicators, while the external debt-to-exports ratio is projected to fall below the 84% threshold by 2027. The debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches in 2025 and is expected to improve afterward through 2026–31, though exports, exchange rate, and growth shocks pose downside risks.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) , and Costas Christou and Martin Cihak (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| ZAMBIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nZambia’s public debt is assessed as sustainable but remains at high risk of overall and external debt distress. The analysis is based on a full post-restructuring macro-framework, incorporating the treatment of official bilateral claims agreed with Zambia’s Official Creditor Committee (OCC), the completed Eurobond exchange, the agreements in principle (AIP) reached with some external commercial creditors, and under the assumed treatment of residual claims of other external commercial creditors in line with authorities’ restructuring strategy and consistent with program parameters and the comparability of treatment principles. Under the baseline, breaches of the overall and some external debt indicator thresholds remain.1 The present value of external debt-to-exports ratio is expected to decline below the 84 percent threshold—indicating “substantial space to absorb shocks”—by 2027. However, the debt service-to-revenue ratio (DSRR) is projected to breach the 14 percent threshold in 2025 (at 21.4 percent, though it is below the threshold at 12.4 percent excluding the fuel arrears clearance operation and past due interest on restructured debt) . The 2026- 31 average DSRR is projected at 13.4 percent, below the 13.8 percent in the previous DSA, with the improved ratio due to significant Kwacha appreciation boosting the nominal value of US$ denominated revenues, as well as lower nominal interest rates and a tighter-than-envisioned fiscal consolidation. Zambia’s debt indicators are projected to improve consistent with a moderate risk of external debt distress in the medium term. Shocks to exports, the exchange rate and growth would present downside risks to the debt outlook.  \n1 Zambia’s debt-carrying capacity is weak based on the composite indicator (CI) . The composite indicator is calculated using data from the October 2025 WEO and the 2025 CPIA, the latest available.  \n1. As in the previous DSA, the coverage of Zambia’s public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt for the purpose of the DSA includes the following : (i) central government domestic and external debt, including arrears to external suppliers (fuel and contractors) and central government guaranteed external debt; (ii) the nonguaranteed external debt of Zambia Electricity Supply Company (ZESCO), the fiscally important state-owned utility;2 and (iii) the domestic and external arrears of the same enterprise. Central bank external debt (including outstanding Fund credit), together with the debt of social security funds guaranteed by the central government, is also included in the coverage.3 As in previous DSAs, local governments and SOEs without government guarantees are excluded from the DSA coverage.  \n2. The DSA also incorporates the treatment of the non-guaranteed external debt of ZESCO, including its domestic and external debt arrears. In accordance with the LIC-DSF Guidance Note, given the significant fiscal risks posed by ZESCO its non-guaranteed external debt, outstanding arrears to domestic (US$181 million at end-June 2025), and external independent power producers (IPPs, US$81 million at end-June 2025), are included in the DSA perimeter.4 Beyond this outstanding debt, as at endSeptember 2025, ZESCO’s overall balance sheet had current payables in various forms ([i.e. trade](i.e. trade) creditsand other revolving and “provisioned-for” payables to various suppliers as well as independent local and IPPs) . While these are current payables, they can poten","cbCaiqr5T7X69N7i","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqr5T7X69N7i","pdf",837716,1,26,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## External Debt Distress Risk\n## Overall Debt Distress Risk\n## Indicator Thresholds and Breaches\n# Methodology and Coverage\n## Post-restructuring Framework\n## Creditor Treatment and Exchanges\n## Scope of Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt\n# Debt Outlook and Risks\n## Baseline Projections\n## Medium-Term Improvements\n## Key Downside Risks","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk rating for Zambia’s debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is rated High, and the external debt distress risk is also High.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicators breach their thresholds in the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"Breaches of the overall and some external debt indicator thresholds remain under the baseline, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio is projected to breach the 14% threshold in 2025.\"},{\"question\":\"How is the debt sustainability analysis structured and what is included in the coverage?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis is based on a full post-restructuring macro-framework and incorporates specific creditor treatments and exchanges. The DSA coverage includes central government domestic and external debt and certain nonguaranteed external debt (including ZESCO’s components), while local governments and SOEs without government guarantees are excluded.\"}]",1784488783,66,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"zambia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/zambia-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111139/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall risk rating for Zambia’s debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is rated High, and the external debt distress risk is also High.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which debt indicators breach their thresholds in the baseline?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Breaches of the overall and some external debt indicator thresholds remain under the baseline, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio is projected to breach the 14% threshold in 2025.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How is the debt sustainability analysis structured and what is included in the coverage?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The analysis is based on a full post-restructuring macro-framework and incorporates specific creditor treatments and exchanges. The DSA coverage includes central government domestic and external debt and certain nonguaranteed external debt (including ZESCO’s components), while local governments and SOEs without government guarantees are excluded.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]