[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-297149-105":59,"doc-detail-297149-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":124,"head_meta":126,"extra_data":128,"updated_unix":130},105,"en","when-creativity-strikes-news-shocks-and-business-cycle-fluctuations","When Creativity Strikes - News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations","","The paper analyzes how news shocks can drive business cycle fluctuations in the absence of changes in underlying fundamentals. It outlines a central role for expectations by linking favorable future-oriented news to booms and unexpectedly low realized fundamentals to busts. The discussion covers the longstanding hypothesis in economics, highlights the empirical plausibility as an open question, and surveys debate perspectives, especially technological change and productivity, supported by multiple references.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/when-creativity-strikes-news-shocks-and-business-cycle-fluctuations/297149/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/when-creativity-strikes-news-shocks-and-business-cycle-fluctuations/297149.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Quinn","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-07","2026-09-18",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",13,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"How do news shocks relate to business cycle fluctuations in the paper?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"The paper argues that news shocks can generate business cycle movements even when fundamentals remain unchanged.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"What mechanism links expectations to booms and busts?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"Favorable news about future fundamentals is associated with booms, while lower than expected realized fundamentals leads to busts through expectations.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"What are the main sides of the debate discussed?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"One side emphasizes technological change and productivity, presenting arguments for and against the role of these factors in driving cycles.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},297149,1789741323,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":140,"language":141,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":142,"faqs":143,"seo_title":144,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":130,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},962075114765,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd","When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations  \nSilvia Miranda-Agrippino 1 ;2  \nwith  \nSinem Hac􀀐olu Hoke 1 & Kristina Bluwstein 1  \n1 Bank of England  \n2 Centre for Macroeconomics  \nUniversitat Pompeu Fabra  \nBarcelona { December 11, 2018  \n[.] The views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent those of the Bank of England, the  \nMonetary Policy Committee, the Financial Policy Committee or the Prudential Regulation Authority.  \nNews-Driven Business Cycles  \n. Longstanding hypothesis in Economics [Pigou (1929), Keynes (1936)]  \n[.]  2/25  \nNews-Driven Business Cycles  \n. Longstanding hypothesis in Economics [Pigou (1929), Keynes (1936)]  \n. Central role of expectations  \n[.]  2/25  \nNews-Driven Business Cycles  \n. Longstanding hypothesis in Economics [Pigou (1929), Keynes (1936)]  \n. Central role of expectations  \n1. Favorable news about future fundamentals : boom  \n2. Lower than expected realized fundamentals : bust  \n[.]  2/25  \nNews-Driven Business Cycles  \n. Longstanding hypothesis in Economics [Pigou (1929), Keynes (1936)]  \n. Central role of expectations  \n1. Favorable news about future fundamentals : boom  \n2. Lower than expected realized fundamentals : bust  \nl  \nBusiness Cycles arise absent any change in fundamentals  \n[.]  2/25  \nNews-Driven Business Cycles  \n. Longstanding hypothesis in Economics [Pigou (1929), Keynes (1936)]  \n. Central role of expectations  \n1. Favorable news about future fundamentals : boom  \n2. Lower than expected realized fundamentals : bust  \nl  \nBusiness Cycles arise absent any change in fundamentals  \n. Empirical plausibility still an open question..  \n[.]  2/25  \nSides of the Debate  \n. Focus on technological change & productivity  \n[.]  3/25  \nSides of the Debate  \n. Focus on technological change & productivity  \n. Two broad views:  \n[.]  3/25  \nSides of the Debate  \n. Focus on technological change & productivity  \n. Two broad views:  \n1. Those who argue in favor of it  \n[Beaudry & Portier (2004, 2006, 2014), Beaudry & Lucke (2010), Mertens & Ravn (2011)]  \n[.]  3/25  \nSides of the Debate  \n. Focus on technological change & productivity  \n. Two broad views:  \n1. Those who argue in favor of it  \n[Beaudry & Portier (2004, 2006, 2014), Beaudry & Lucke (2010), Mertens & Ravn (2011)]  \n2. Those who don't  \n[Barsky & Sims (2011), Basu, Fernald & Kimball (2006), Francis & Ramey  \n(2005, 2009), Barsky, Basu & Lee (2015), Kurmann & Sims (2017)]  \n[.]  3/25","cbCaip5Tdtn4VlID","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaip5Tdtn4VlID","pdf",775626,111,"English","# News-Driven Business Cycles\n## Central role of expectations\n## Boom vs. bust\n## Business cycles without fundamentals\n# Sides of the Debate\n## Technological change and productivity\n## Two broad views","[{\"question\":\"How do news shocks relate to business cycle fluctuations in the paper?\",\"answer\":\"The paper argues that news shocks can generate business cycle movements even when fundamentals remain unchanged.\"},{\"question\":\"What mechanism links expectations to booms and busts?\",\"answer\":\"Favorable news about future fundamentals is associated with booms, while lower than expected realized fundamentals leads to busts through expectations.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the main sides of the debate discussed?\",\"answer\":\"One side emphasizes technological change and productivity, presenting arguments for and against the role of these factors in driving cycles.\"}]","When Creativity Strikes - News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations | PDF",280]