[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-seo-157891-105":3,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":81,"doc-detail-157891-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"ok",{"site_id":7,"language":8,"slug":9,"title":10,"keywords":11,"description":12,"schema_data":13,"social_meta":74,"head_meta":76,"extra_data":78,"updated_unix":80},105,"en","whats-the-matter-with-the-oc","What’s the Matter with the OC?","","Analysis of political transformation in Orange County, focusing on why voting patterns shifted between 2014 and 2018 amid changing turnout, election rules, and demographic trends. The material compares Democrats’ and Republicans’ county-wide vote choice, outlines California’s Top-Two Primary framework, and contrasts early voting and vote-by-mail versus precinct turnout. It further examines governor and congressional district outcomes and asks how far Donald Trump’s election can explain the observed changes.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & Report",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/whats-the-matter-with-the-oc/157891/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/whats-the-matter-with-the-oc/157891.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":42,"@type":43},"นรินทร์","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-27","2026-08-29",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":55},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",19,{"@type":57,"mainEntity":58},"FAQPage",[59,65,69],{"name":60,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":62},"What question does the document pose about Orange County elections?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"To what extent can changing voting patterns in Orange County be explained by Donald Trump’s election while controlling for turnout, election rules, and demographic change?","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"How does the document describe turnout changes between 2014 and 2018?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"It compares registered voters and ballots cast, highlighting a rise from 45% turnout in 2014 to 70.1% in 2018, with shifts across vote-by-mail and precinct voting.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"What election rules and demographic factors are emphasized?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"The document emphasizes California’s Top-Two Primary rules and demographic change, including population growth and shifts in White and Hispanic shares between 2010/2017 estimates.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":32,"og:type":75,"og:title":10,"og:site_name":45,"og:description":12},"article",{"robots":77,"canonical":32},"index,follow",{"doc_id":79,"site_id":7},157891,1787990722,{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":83},"success",[84,88,92,96,101,106,111,115,120,123,127],{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":85,"show_sort_weight":86,"slug":87},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":26,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":89,"show_sort_weight":90,"slug":91},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":33,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":97,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":102,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":29,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},8,30,"research-report",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":118,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":121,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":122},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":124,"slug":126},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":55,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":129},"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":131},{"doc_id":79,"user_id":132,"nickname":42,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":112,"category_name":29,"doc_title":10,"doc_description":12,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":55,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":22,"is_downloadable":22,"audit_status":22,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":8,"site_id":7,"html_lang":8,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":12,"update_tm":80,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},2336475104957,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/22000c4c6bd8a5076e1?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1787554080175789136","Jonathan R. Cervas  \nPh. D Candidate, Political Science  \nWhat’s the Matter with the OC?  \nClick Here for Most Recent Version 12/13/2018  \nAfter 2016  \nClinton first Democrat to win plurality of vote in Orange County in nearly a century.  \n\n| Republicans won 4 out of 7 Congressional races, even though Hillary Clinton had outperformed the Democratic candidates in those districts |\n| --- |\n| Democrats saw an opening to flip seats in Orange County and made districts there key to the blue wave strategy in 2018 |\n\nSo how did that work out?  \nThe Puzzle of Political Transformation  \nTurnout  \n2014  \n• Registered voters:• 1,424,216  \n• Ballots cast:  \n• 640,358 (45%)  \n• Early •(0%)  \n• Vote by mail •(39%)  \n• At precinct •(61%)  \n• Registered voters:• 1,558,988  \n• Ballots cast:  \n• 1,106,729 (70.1%)  \n• Early •(21%)  \n• Vote by mail •(62%)  \n• At precinct •(35%)  \nOrange County Demographics  \n• Population has increased by nearly 200,000 (6.7%) residents since 2010 census  \n• Estimated 3.2 million residents in Orange County – 6th largest county in the country  \n• 2010 –  \n• White – 43.9%  \n• Hispanic – 33.8%• 2017 –  \n• White – 40.4%  \n• Hispanic – 34.2%  \nRules of the Game  \nCalifornia Top‐ Two Primary  \nState Parties are particularly affected  \nOpinion Change  \nVote Choice (county‐wide congressional vote)  \nDemocrats  \nRepublicans  \n2014 45% 55%  \n2018 54% 46%  \nTo what extent can we explain changing patterns of voting in OC to the election of Donald Trump, controlling for changes in turnout, the rules of the  \ngame, and demographic change?  \n?  \nGovernor’s Race  \n• 2014  \n• Jerry Brown – 275,707 (44%)  \n• Neel Kashkari – 344,817 (56%)  \n• 2018  \n• Gavin Newsom* ‐ 543,047 (50.1%)  \n• John Cox ‐ 539,951 (49.9%)  \n• * Running for Lt Gov in 2014, Gavin received just 41.3% of the two‐party vote!  \nStatewide: Brown 60%, Kashkari 40% Statewide: Newsom 62%, Cox 38%  \nCD 38  \n2014 2018  \nCamposBenjami,n 1,988 56.8%  DRoywanning, 2,587 46.4%  \n * SanchLinda Tez,  1,512 43.2%  * SanchLinda Tez,  2,990 53.6%  \nCD 39    \n2014 2018  \n*Royce, Ed  \nAnderson, Peter  \n63,346 70.8%  Kim, Young 80,123  \n26,184 29.2%   Cisneros, Gil  78,059","cbCaidQpxBMmc4Qq","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidQpxBMmc4Qq","pdf",7874921,21,"English","# After 2016\n## Political Transformation Puzzle\n## Turnout\n## Orange County Demographics\n## Rules of the Game\n## Opinion Change and Vote Choice\n## Governor’s Race\n## Congressional District Outcomes","[{\"question\":\"What question does the document pose about Orange County elections?\",\"answer\":\"To what extent can changing voting patterns in Orange County be explained by Donald Trump’s election while controlling for turnout, election rules, and demographic change?\"},{\"question\":\"How does the document describe turnout changes between 2014 and 2018?\",\"answer\":\"It compares registered voters and ballots cast, highlighting a rise from 45% turnout in 2014 to 70.1% in 2018, with shifts across vote-by-mail and precinct voting.\"},{\"question\":\"What election rules and demographic factors are emphasized?\",\"answer\":\"The document emphasizes California’s Top-Two Primary rules and demographic change, including population growth and shifts in White and Hispanic shares between 2010/2017 estimates.\"}]","What’s the Matter with the OC? | PDF",53]