[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110966-en":3,"doc-seo-110966-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110966,687197207919,"Theodora","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/a000253d6f5f7c60be?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779446848396160552",8,"Research & Report","Vanuatu - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - August 2021","Vanuatu’s 2021 Debt Sustainability Analysis finds a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks and no change from the 2019 assessment. The analysis presents two tailored shocks and an alternative scenario, each producing a significant deterioration in debt sustainability. Natural disaster risks breach external debt thresholds from 2027, and contingent liabilities linked to Air Vanuatu exceed thresholds from 2022. Policy needs include rebuilding fiscal buffers, strengthening shock resilience, mobilizing revenue, and prioritizing grants or concessional financing.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nVANUATU  \nJOINT WORLD BANK-IMF DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS  \nAugust 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão, Hassan Zaman (IDA), Krishna Srinivasan and  \nMaria Gonzalez (IMF)  \n\n| Vanuatu: Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress: | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress: | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating: | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgement: | No |\n\nThe 2021 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates that the risk of debt distress rating for Vanuatu remains moderate with limited space to absorb shocks and has not changed from the 2019 DSA. 1 Two tailored shocks and an alternative scenario are presented, all leading to a significant deterioration in debt sustainability. A natural disaster shock would cause the PV ofthe public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio to breach the threshold from 2027 onwards. A contingent liability shock based on the fact that the government took over the control of Air Vanuatu would cause the PV of the PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio to breach the threshold from 2022 onwards. The most extreme shock in terms of the PV of the PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio is the combined contingent liabilities. An alternative scenario of a sudden fall of the Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) revenues indicates that the PV of the external debtto-GDP ratio would breach the 40 percent threshold in 2028 onwards and that the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio would breach the 55 percent benchmark from 2028 onwards. The most extreme shock in terms of the public debt-to-GDP ratio is growth. The DSA results indicate the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers and enhancing resilience against shocks, including from natural disasters. Such needs would require early formulating a medium-term fiscal strategy, particularly revenue mobilization measures. When financing the rebuilding costs or investing in new infrastructure, the authorities are encouraged to continue seeking grants or concessional loans.  \n1 Vanuatu’s Composite Indicator (CI) index, calculated on the basis of the April 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2019 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) released in July 2020, is at 2.93, indicating that Vanuatu’s debt-carrying capacity is medium.  \nPUBLIC DEBT COVERAGE  \n1. The coverage of public sector debt for this DSA is central government debt, central government guaranteed debt, and central bank debt, which has been borrowed on behalf of the government. The debt of Air Vanuatu is not included due to the lack of concrete information and the fact that the government has neither assumed nor guaranteed debt of Air Vanuatu (see paragraph 11) . Because of data limitations, other elements in the general government, nonguaranteed state-owned enterprise (SOE) debt and private external debt are not included in the analysis. Given the limited capacity to borrow both externally and domestically by Vanuatu’s state and local governments, SOEs and its private sector, data deficiencies do not affect the overall assessment. The PFTAC is providing technical assistance to help the authorities expand the coverage of government financial statistics (GFS) from budgetary central government to general government and SOEs.  \n\n| Coverage of Public Sector Debt |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| 1 | Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered |\n|  | Central government X |\n| 2 | State and local government |\n| 3 | Other elements in the general government |\n| 4 | o/w: Social security fund |\n| 5 | o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |\n| 6 | Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X |\n| 7 | Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the gove","cbCailaudJEdd0Z5","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCailaudJEdd0Z5","pdf",571491,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and scenarios\n## Baseline risk rating\n## Tailored shocks and alternative scenario\n# Public debt coverage and scope\n## Included and excluded debt elements\n## Data limitations and technical assistance\n# Background on public debt\n## Recent trends and pandemic financing\n## Creditor structure and debt composition","[{\"question\":\"What is Vanuatu’s assessed risk of debt distress in 2021?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"Which shocks are examined, and what deterioration do they cause?\",\"answer\":\"Two tailored shocks and an alternative scenario are modeled; they all lead to a significant deterioration in debt sustainability, including breaches of key debt thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"What policy responses does the DSA recommend?\",\"answer\":\"The report recommends rebuilding fiscal buffers, enhancing resilience to shocks (including natural disasters), formulating a medium-term fiscal strategy, mobilizing revenue, and seeking grants or concessional loans when financing rebuilding or new infrastructure.\"}]",1784487936,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"vanuatu-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-august-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/vanuatu-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-august-2021/110966/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Vanuatu’s assessed risk of debt distress in 2021?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis rates both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress as moderate.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which shocks are examined, and what deterioration do they cause?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Two tailored shocks and an alternative scenario are modeled; they all lead to a significant deterioration in debt sustainability, including breaches of key debt thresholds.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What policy responses does the DSA recommend?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The report recommends rebuilding fiscal buffers, enhancing resilience to shocks (including natural disasters), formulating a medium-term fiscal strategy, mobilizing revenue, and seeking grants or concessional loans when financing rebuilding or new infrastructure.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":135,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":136},"General","general"]