[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110618-en":3,"doc-seo-110618-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110618,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","Uzbekistan - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2021","Joint World Bank and IMF analysis evaluates Uzbekistan’s debt sustainability under baseline and stress scenarios. The baseline projects public and publicly guaranteed external debt to stay around 40% of GDP over the medium term, with total external debt peaking near 64% and PPG external debt near 43% in 2022 before stabilizing. Under baseline, risk of external and overall debt distress remains low; only an extreme export shock in 2024 breaches a debt-service threshold temporarily.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nREPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN  \nJOINT WORLD BANK-IMF DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS  \nApril 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Thanos Arvanitis and Uma Ramakrishnan (IMF)  \n\n| Uzbekistan: Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of External Debt Distress | Low |\n| Overall Risk of Debt Distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the Risk Rating | Not Applicable |\n| Application of Judgement | No |\n\nUnder the baseline scenario, the path of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt is expected to remain around 40 percent of GDP over the medium term. 1 This is about 7 percentage points of GDP higher than under the previous DSA of May 2020. Due to the COVID-19 shock, the government’s overall fiscal deficit and disbursements of guaranteed debt are expected to be higher and GDP lower over the next five years. Uzbekistan’s total and PPG external debt are projected to peak at 64 and 43 percent of GDP, respectively, in 2022 before declining modestly out to 2026 and then stabilizing. Staff assesses that Uzbekistan remains ata low risk of external debt distress.2 Under the baseline scenario, PPG external debt indicators remain well below relevant thresholds. Under the most extreme scenario (worse-than-expected exports), the debt service-to-exports ratio would breach its threshold. This is discounted as it occurs in only one year (2024) due to repayment of a Eurobond, then the ratio returns and remains below the threshold thereafter. Shock scenarios with higher primary deficits or higher contingent liabilities arising from state enterprise debt would raise risk indicators modestly. The probability of these risks being realized is about the same as in the May 2020 DSA.Under the authorities’ plans, which include an annual limit on PPG debt commitments and a limit on the overall PPG debt stock, the PPG debt-to-GDP ratio will remain around 40 percent of GDP over the medium term. Strong foreign exchange reserves and low rollover risk (due to the longterm maturity of debt), mitigate the potential risk of debt distress. To limit risks to its strong external position, the government should continue to carefully manage public and external  \n1 This DSA was prepared jointly by IMF and World Bank staff and is based on the Joint Bank-Fund Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) methodology.  \n2 Uzbekistan’s Composite Indicator score is 3.16 based on the October 2020 WEO and 2019 CPIA indicating a strong debt carrying capacity (see Text Table 4) .  \nborrowing, improve public investment management and coordination, and be cautious on granting government debt guarantees.  \nBACKGROUND  \nPublic Debt Coverage  \n1. Public debt coverage is broad (see text table 1) . Coverage includes debt of the central government, state and local governments, the pension fund, extra-budgetary funds, and debt of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) guaranteed by the government. Public debt does not include nonguaranteed debt of SOEs and joint ventures (about 6 percent of GDP in 2020 down from 7 percent in 2019). The authorities are improving coverage and have made steady progress over the last few years with technical support from the IMF and World Bank. The government established a Debt Management Office (DMO) in the Ministry of Finance and has been implementing Debt Management Financial Analysis System (DMFAS) software from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Private external debt is primarily comprised of borrowing by state owned banks and by joint ventures of SOEs.  \n\n| Text Table 1. Debt Coverage |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n|  | 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 | Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered |\n|  |  | Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local g","cbCaiq2AcpdPC2Qh","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiq2AcpdPC2Qh","pdf",410315,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Debt Distress Risk Assessment\n## Baseline Scenario vs Stress Scenarios\n# Background\n## Public Debt Coverage\n## Contingency Stress Tests\n## Background on Debt and Short-Term Developments","[{\"question\":\"What debt distress risks does the analysis conclude for Uzbekistan?\",\"answer\":\"The report concludes that Uzbekistan remains at low risk of external debt distress and low overall risk of debt distress under the baseline scenario.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the baseline scenario project public and publicly guaranteed external debt?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, PPG external debt is expected to remain around 40% of GDP over the medium term, with peaks projected in 2022 before modest decline and stabilization through 2026.\"},{\"question\":\"Which scenario could breach the external debt service threshold, and why?\",\"answer\":\"The most extreme scenario with worse-than-expected exports could breach the debt service-to-exports threshold in 2024 due to Eurobond repayment, after which the ratio returns below the threshold.\"}]",1784486272,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"uzbekistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2021","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/uzbekistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2021/110618/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What debt distress risks does the analysis conclude for Uzbekistan?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The report concludes that Uzbekistan remains at low risk of external debt distress and low overall risk of debt distress under the baseline scenario.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"How does the baseline scenario project public and publicly guaranteed external debt?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Under the baseline, PPG external debt is expected to remain around 40% of GDP over the medium term, with peaks projected in 2022 before modest decline and stabilization through 2026.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which scenario could breach the external debt service threshold, and why?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The most extreme scenario with worse-than-expected exports could breach the debt service-to-exports threshold in 2024 due to Eurobond repayment, after which the ratio returns below the 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