[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111569-en":3,"doc-seo-111569-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111569,1099514068035,"Ezra","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","United Republic of Tanzania - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate risk assessment - DSA conclusions","Tanzania faces a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF), supported by medium debt-carrying capacity. Under the baseline, external debt burden indicators remain below policy thresholds and the present value of total public debt stays under the 55% of GDP benchmark. Liquidity worsens versus the prior DSA due to higher short-term domestic repayments and external lump-sum amortization. Stress tests highlight sensitivity to export and exchange rate shocks, while contingent liabilities and climate shocks affect public debt dynamics. Over the medium term, debt is projected to trend downward with reforms and prudent policies aligned with IMF ECF objectives, emphasizing concessional financing, domestic market development, revenue mobilization, investment management, and climate resilience.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) , and Catherine Pattillo and Niamh Sheridan (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1  \n\n| UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nTanzania remains at moderate risk of debt distress under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LICDSF), with medium debt-carrying capacity. 2 All external debt burden indicators continue to stay below the policydetermined thresholds under the baseline scenario and the present value of the overall public debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the 55 percent of GDP benchmark. Nonetheless, liquidity indicators have deteriorated compared to the previous DSA on account of higher repayments of short-term domestic debt obligations and, on the external side, lumped amortization of various external loans. Stress tests show significant sensitivity of external debt dynamics to exports and exchange rate shocks, while contingent liabilities and climate shocks matter for overall public debt dynamics. Over the medium term, public debt will trend downwards supported by implementation of the authorities’ reforms and prudent policies in line with the IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) objectives. The DSA results signal the importance of accessing, to the extent possible, external financing on concessional terms, developing of the domestic debt market, improving revenue mobilization and public investment management, and building resilience to climate change to maintain fiscal and debt sustainability.  \n1 This DSA was prepared based on the Joint Bank-Fund LIC-DSA methodology.  \n2 Tanzania’s debt carrying capacity classification remains medium as in the June 2024 DSA. The composite index (CI), estimated at 2.88 is based on the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2023 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data.  \n1. The public sector debt covers central government debt, central government-guaranteed debt (i.e., excluding non-guaranteed debt of SOEs and local governments), and central bank debt (Text Table 1) . Local governments and non-guaranteed public corporations’ debt are not fully covered in available debt statistics, but the authorities are making progress in addressing these shortcomings.3 The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) currently has no outstanding debt. The definition of external debt is based on residency. The DSA contingent liability (CL) stress test captures public sector exposure to SOEs, calibrated at 2.6 percent of GDP, reflecting the authorities’ estimated size of contingent liabilities, including 2.3 percent of GDP in guarantees to the National Insurance Corporation4 and 0.3 percent of GDP nonguaranteed SOEs debt.  \nublic debt coverage  \n\n|  | Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt | Check box |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 |  | X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X |\n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  | Default | Used for the analysis | Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.\u003Cbr>SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/\u003Cbr>PPP\u003Cbr>Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of","cbCaipcLAFJnUVMN","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipcLAFJnUVMN","pdf",842847,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment under LIC-DSF\n## Overall and external debt distress risk\n## Liquidity indicators and key drivers\n# Debt dynamics and stress tests\n## Export and exchange rate sensitivity\n## Contingent liabilities and climate shocks\n# Medium-term outlook and policy implications\n## Reforms under IMF ECF objectives\n## Financing, revenue, investment management, and climate resilience","[{\"question\":\"What is Tanzania’s overall and external debt distress risk under the LIC-DSF?\",\"answer\":\"Tanzania’s overall risk of debt distress is rated moderate, and the risk of external debt distress is also moderate under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the baseline scenario compare against key debt thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, external debt burden indicators stay below policy-determined thresholds, and the present value of the overall public debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the 55% of GDP benchmark.\"},{\"question\":\"Why have liquidity indicators deteriorated compared with the previous DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Liquidity worsened due to higher repayments of short-term domestic debt obligations and, externally, lumped amortization of various external loans.\"}]",1784490720,60,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"united-republic-of-tanzania-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment-dsa-conclusions","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/united-republic-of-tanzania-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment-dsa-conclusions/111569/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Tanzania’s overall and external debt distress risk under the LIC-DSF?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Tanzania’s overall risk of debt distress is rated moderate, and the risk of external debt distress is also moderate under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How does the baseline scenario compare against key debt thresholds?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, external debt burden indicators stay below policy-determined thresholds, and the present value of the overall public debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the 55% of GDP benchmark.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why have liquidity indicators deteriorated compared with the previous DSA?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Liquidity worsened due to higher repayments of short-term domestic debt obligations and, externally, lumped amortization of various external loans.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":108},5,"Comic","comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]