[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111107-en":3,"doc-seo-111107-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111107,687197100911,"Himbo","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/a000239b6f1da00475?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1782698725881665579",8,"Research & Report","Union of the Union of the Comoros - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk Assessment","Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis for the Union of the Comoros evaluates external and overall public debt sustainability and identifies elevated stress. External and overall debt are sustainable in the medium term, yet the overall and external risk of debt distress remains high. Baseline indicators continue to breach thresholds, though improvements in fiscal balances and liquidity follow stronger-than-expected 2023H1 revenues and lower financing needs. The assessment depends on domestic resource mobilization, sustained fiscal consolidation, no additional non-concessional borrowing, and stronger SOE financial oversight, while highlighting susceptibility to export and contingent liability shocks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Costas Christou and S. Jay Peiris (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| UNION OF THE COMOROS: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nComoros external and overall debt are sustainable including in the medium term but remain at high risk of debt distress1. Three of the four external debt burden indicators continue to breach their respective thresholds under the baseline. However, mild improvements in fiscal balances from higher-than-expected revenues in 2023H1 as well asthe lower-than-anticipated financing needs over 2023-25 have led to improvements in the external debt burden and liquidity indicators compared to the DSA of the ECF request (May 2023) . Factors that mitigate the mechanical risk signals include the authorities’ reform plans supported by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the World Bank’s Development Policy Operations (DPOs), as well as the consistently strong performance of remittances, which supports external sustainability. This overall assessment is contingent on: (i) progress on domestic resource mobilization and gradual but sustained fiscal consolidation over the medium term, (ii) no additional non-concessional borrowing, and (iii) enhanced financial oversight of SOEs. The DSA suggests that Comoros’ external debt is susceptible to export and contingent liability shocks.  \n1 Comoros’ debt carrying capacity is assessed as medium, given a Composite Indicator of 2.82 based on October 2023 WEO projections and the 2022 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating.  \n1. Public debt coverage includes all financing from the central bank to the Treasury. The coverage of external debt includes the entire public sector, namely external debt of the central government, the central bank borrowing on behalf of the government, and government-guaranteed debt of SOEs. Subnational government entities cannot take up external debt on their own, and they have not taken on domestic debt. SOEs cannot access the external debt market without a government guarantee. Domestic debt includes central government, SOE’s guaranteed debt from domestic banks, and on-lending from the Central Bank of Comoros (BCC) to the government, including statutory advances and loans connected to the IMF SDR allocation.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n| Sources: Comorian authorities, and IMF staff |\n\n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n| Sources: Comorian authorities, and IMF staff |\n\n2. Contingent liabilities have built up significantly and the likelihood of their materialization is growing. The magnitude of the contingent liabilities shock is 12.5 percent of GDP reflecting: (i) preliminary outcomes of an ongoing audit pointing to a higher-than-expected level of domestic arrears1F2 and (ii) difficulties encountered by the SOEs involved in importing food and oil in rolling over their trade loans in 2022 following the deterioration of their cash flows due to higher commodity prices (1 percent of GDP added to the default 2 percent of GDP to capture unknown cross-debts of SOEs), and (iii) the average  \n2 These domestic arrears represent unpaid bills for goods and services and are included as contingent liabilities as the figures are still preliminary. It includes arrears from the treasury to the pension system. Audit of domestic arrears are ongoing. Once completed, an arrears clearance strategy will be identified.  \ncost to the government of a financial crisis in low-income countries since 1980—5 percent of GDP also captures about 1/3 of banking sector assets in Comoros (Text Table 2) .  \n3. Public debt ratio has been on an upward trend, rising from 30.6 percent of GDP in 2021 to","cbCaiieBK9ExLnFA","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiieBK9ExLnFA","pdf",813951,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External and overall debt distress ratings\n## Contingent liabilities and public debt trends\n## External debt composition and arrears","[{\"question\":\"What are the overall and external debt distress risks for Comoros?\",\"answer\":\"Both the external risk of debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are rated High.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis still show high risk even though debt is sustainable in the medium term?\",\"answer\":\"Three of four external debt burden indicators breach their thresholds under the baseline, indicating persistent stress signals despite some fiscal and liquidity improvements.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors mitigate the mechanical risk signals in the DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Mitigating factors include authorities’ reform plans supported by IMF’s ECF and World Bank DPOs, and consistently strong remittances that support external sustainability.\"}]",1784488613,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"union-of-the-union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/union-of-the-union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment/111107/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What are the overall and external debt distress risks for Comoros?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Both the external risk of debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are rated High.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why does the analysis still show high risk even though debt is sustainable in the medium term?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Three of four external debt burden indicators breach their thresholds under the baseline, indicating persistent stress signals despite some fiscal and liquidity improvements.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What factors mitigate the mechanical risk signals in the DSA?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Mitigating factors include authorities’ reform plans supported by IMF’s ECF and World Bank DPOs, and consistently strong remittances that support external 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