[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110177-en":3,"doc-seo-110177-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110177,34359740700684,"Finn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1f400023980c374ae676?_k=1777273430885731487",8,"Research & Report","Union of the Comoros - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk Assessment","Union of the Comoros - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis evaluates external and overall public debt under a policy adjustment baseline. Results show a high risk of external debt distress and a high overall risk of debt distress, while external debt indicators improve over the medium term and threshold breaches are limited in magnitude and duration. Mitigating factors include completion of the IMF Staff-Monitored Program and planned reforms under the IMF ECF and World Bank DPO, alongside consistently strong remittances. The assessment also depends on sustained fiscal consolidation, no new non-concessional borrowing, and stronger SOE financial oversight, with downside risks from export, exchange rate, and contingent liability shocks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA);  \nCostas Christou and Johannes Wiegand (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association(IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| UNION OF THE COMOROS: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nComoros external and overall debt are sustainable but remain at high risk of debt distress1. Breaches of the external debt sustainability thresholds are of limited magnitudes and durations while debt burden indicators are projected to improve over the medium term. Additional considerations that mitigate the mechanical risk signals include the authorities’ recent completion of the IMF’s Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) and plans for continued reforms supported by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the World Bank’s Development Policy Operation (DPO), as well as the consistently strong performance of remittances, which supports external sustainability. The baseline in this DSA thus reflects a policy adjustment scenario. As in the DSA of the second review of the SMP (April 2023), three of four external debt burden indicators breach their respective thresholds under the baseline. Higher level of publicly guaranteed domestic debt of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) has pushed up overall public debt, albeit remaining well below thresholds. This assessment is contingent on: (i) progress on domestic resource mobilization and gradual but sustained fiscal consolidation over the medium term, (ii) no additional non-concessional borrowing, and (iii) enhanced financial oversight of SOEs. The DSA suggests that Comoros is susceptible to export shocks; exchange rate and contingent liability shocks would also present downside risks to the debt outlook.  \n.  \n1 Comoros’ debt carrying capacity is assessed as medium, given a Composite Indicator of 2.855 based on October 2022 WEO projections and the 2021 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating.  \n1. Public debt coverage includes all financing from the central bank to the Treasury. The coverage of external debt includes the entire public sector, namely external debt of the central government, the central bank borrowing on behalf of the government, and government-guaranteed debt of SOEs. Subnational government entities cannot take up external debt on their own, and they have not taken on domestic debt. SOEs cannot access the external debt market without a government guarantee. Domestic debt includes central government, SOE’s guaranteed debt from domestic banks, and on-lending from the central bank including the IMF SDR allocation and statutory advances.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n| Sources: Comorian authorities, and IMF staff |\n\nSources: Comorian authorities, and IMF staff  \n1 These domestic arrears represent unpaid bills for goods and services and are included as contingent liabilities as the figures are still preliminary. It includes arrears from the treasury to the pension system.  \n3. Public debt ratio has been on an upward trend, rising from 29.8 percent in 2021 of GDP to 33.7 in 2022. External public debt , which constitutes 80 percent of total public debt, reached 27.2 percent of GDP in 2022 and is expected to rise further to 33.6 percent of GDP by end-2023, up from 21.2 percent of GDP prior to the pandemic. Domestic public debt jumped from 5.2 percent of GDP in 2021 and to 6.6 percent of GDP in 2022 7.2 by end-2023, reflecting the BCC’s on-lending of the SDR allocation and a higher take-up of publicly guaranteed domestic debt by the SOEs involved in food and energy supply. The authorities have made progress in public debt management with the promulgation of a debt management law; a FY23 public policy action (PPA) of the sustainable development policy financing","cbCaimDYFx7DdWar","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimDYFx7DdWar","pdf",745052,1,18,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress Assessment\n## External Debt Distress Risk\n## Overall Debt Distress Risk\n## Policy and Judgment Considerations\n## Key Assumptions and Contingent Risks","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk level for external debt distress in Comoros?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as High. Mechanical signals show threshold breaches, but with limited magnitude and duration.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the overall risk of debt distress also rated High?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk remains High because publicly guaranteed domestic debt of state-owned enterprises increases overall public debt, even though it stays well below the relevant thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"Which conditions does the debt sustainability assessment depend on?\",\"answer\":\"It depends on progress in domestic resource mobilization and sustained fiscal consolidation, no additional non-concessional borrowing, and enhanced financial oversight of SOEs. It also flags susceptibility to export shocks and other contingent risks affecting the debt outlook.\"}]",1784484239,45,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment/110177/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the assessed risk level for external debt distress in Comoros?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as High. Mechanical signals show threshold breaches, but with limited magnitude and duration.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why is the overall risk of debt distress also rated High?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The overall risk remains High because publicly guaranteed domestic debt of state-owned enterprises increases overall public debt, even though it stays well below the relevant thresholds.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which conditions does the debt sustainability assessment depend on?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"It depends on progress in domestic resource mobilization and sustained fiscal consolidation, no additional non-concessional borrowing, and enhanced financial oversight of SOEs. It also flags susceptibility to export shocks and other contingent risks affecting the debt outlook.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]