[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110167-en":3,"doc-seo-110167-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110167,962075006959,"Anda","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e0002397efbe92a78e?_k=1776741047341049297",8,"Research & Report","Union of the Comoros - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - High Risk","The Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Comoros’ external and overall public debt as sustainable, yet at high risk of debt distress. While breaches of external debt sustainability thresholds remain limited and debt service indicators are projected to gradually improve, risks are buffered by successful completion of the IMF Staff-Monitored Program, reforms expected under a prospective IMF ECF-supported program, and consistently strong remittance performance. The baseline assumes higher oil and food prices, a stronger dollar, and a less active policy-adjustment path than the pre-ECF scenario, and it highlights vulnerabilities to export and exchange-rate depreciation shocks as well as downside impacts from natural disasters and contingent liabilities.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA); Costas Christou, Andrea Schaechter and Maria Gonzalez (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association(IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| UNION OF THE COMOROS: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nComoros external and overall debt are sustainable but remain at high risk of debt distress.1 Breaches of the external debt sustainability thresholds are of limited magnitude while debt service metrics are projected to gradually improve over the forecast horizon. Additional considerations that mitigate the mechanical risk signals include the authorities’successful completion of the IMF Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), plans for an economic reform program supported by the prospective IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and the consistently strong performance of remittances, which supports external sustainability. The baseline in this DSA reflects higher oil and food prices, the appreciation of the dollar, and a less active policy-adjustment scenario compared to the last DSA (reflecting a pre-ECF baseline) . Three of four external debt burden indicators breach their respective thresholds under this baseline. The incorporation in domestic debt of statutory advances, SDR on-lending to the government and higher level of publicly guaranteed domestic debt of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), result in deterioration of domestic debt dynamics under the baseline. This assessment is contingent on: (i) progress on domestic resource mobilization and gradual but sustained fiscal consolidation over the medium term, (ii) no additional non-concessional borrowing, and (iii) enhanced financial oversight of SOEs. The DSA suggests that Comoros is susceptible to export and exchange rate depreciation shocks; natural disaster and contingent liabilities shocks would also present downside risks to the debt outlook.  \n1 Comoros’ debt carrying capacity is assessed as medium, given a Composite Indicator of 2.855 based on October 2022 WEO projections and the 2021 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating.  \n1. Public debt coverage has been extended to include all financing from the central bank to the Treasury. The coverage of external debt includes the entire public sector, namely external debt of the central government, the central bank borrowing on behalf of the government, and government-guaranteed debt of SOEs. Subnational government entities cannot take up external debt on their own, and SOEs cannot access the external debt market without a government guarantee. Domestic debt includes central government, SOE’s guaranteed debt from domestic banks, and on-lending from the central bank includingthe IMF SDR allocation and statutory advances.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n| Sources: Comorian authorities, and IMF staff |\n\n2. Contingent liabilities have built up significantly and the likelihood of their materialization is growing. The magnitude of the contingent liabilities shock is revised up to 12.5 percent of GDP, from 8.8 previously, to reflect: (i) preliminary outcomes of an ongoing audit pointing to a higher-than-expected level of domestic arrears2 and (ii) difficulties encountered by the SOEs involved in importing food and oil in rolling over their trade loans following the deterioration of their cash flows due to higher commodity prices.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n| Sources: Comorian authorities, and IMF staff |\n\n2 These domestic arrears represent unpaid bills for goods and services and are included as contingent liabilities as the figures are still preliminary. They include arrears from the treasury to the pension system. Preliminary assessment from the ongoing audit is that the accumulation of domestic arrears include","cbCairOkpoMeUaxg","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairOkpoMeUaxg","pdf",648953,1,16,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Risk Ratings and Judgment\n## Baseline Assumptions and External Debt Dynamics\n## Domestic Debt Deterioration and Contingent Liabilities\n## Contingent Liabilities Shock\n## Debt Levels and Structure\n## Ongoing Projects and Financing Notes","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall assessment of Comoros’ debt sustainability risk?\",\"answer\":\"Comoros’ external and overall debt are assessed as sustainable, but the risk of debt distress is rated high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the baseline scenario still show high-risk signals despite improving debt service metrics?\",\"answer\":\"The baseline assumes higher oil and food prices, dollar appreciation, and a less active policy-adjustment path, and it includes deterioration in domestic debt dynamics from items such as statutory advances and publicly guaranteed domestic SOE debt.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are driving the rise in contingent liabilities?\",\"answer\":\"Contingent liabilities have increased due to preliminary audit findings showing higher domestic arrears and difficulties faced by SOEs importing food and oil while rolling over trade loans amid deteriorating cash flows from higher commodity prices.\"}]",1784484200,40,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk/110167/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall assessment of Comoros’ debt sustainability risk?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Comoros’ external and overall debt are assessed as sustainable, but the risk of debt distress is rated high.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the baseline scenario still show high-risk signals despite improving debt service metrics?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The baseline assumes higher oil and food prices, dollar appreciation, and a less active policy-adjustment path, and it includes deterioration in domestic debt dynamics from items such as statutory advances and publicly guaranteed domestic SOE debt.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What factors are driving the rise in contingent liabilities?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Contingent liabilities have increased due to preliminary audit findings showing higher domestic arrears and difficulties faced by SOEs importing food and oil while rolling over trade loans amid deteriorating cash flows from higher 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