[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111190-en":3,"doc-seo-111190-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111190,34359740700684,"Finn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1f400023980c374ae676?_k=1777273430885731487",8,"Research & Report","Union of the Comoros - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - External and Overall Debt Risk Assessment","Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Comoros’ external and overall debt, concluding sustainability in the medium term but continued high risk of external debt distress. Under the baseline, most indicators stay below thresholds; however, the external debt service-to-exports ratio breaches the limit and debt service-to-revenue reaches the threshold in 2026. The judgment-based high rating is driven by external arrears recurrence under the IMF ECF, weak revenue/export bases, macro baseline uncertainty, and limited debt and liquidity management capacity, partially mitigated by reform plans supported by the IMF ECF and World Bank DPOs, strong remittance performance, and conditions on revenue mobilization, fiscal consolidation, no new non-concessional borrowing, and strengthened SOE oversight.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA), and Costas Christou and S. Jay Peiris (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| UNION OF THE COMOROS\u003Cbr>JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Comoros’ external and overall debt as sustainable including in the medium term but continuing to remain at high risk of debt distress 1. Although debt indicators generally remain below their risk thresholds under the baseline scenario, one of the four external debt burden indicators -the external debt service-to-exports ratio - breaches the threshold while the debt service-to-revenue ratio is at the threshold, both in 2026. While the breach is one-off and marginal, consistent with an external risk rating of moderate, the recurrence of external arrears which breach the performance criterion under the IMF’s ECF program, low revenue and export bases, high uncertainty in the macroeconomic baseline, and a weak institutional framework including limited debt and liquidity management capacity are key factors that trigger the application of judgment to maintain the high DSA risk rating. Factors that mitigate the risk include the authorities’ reform plans supported by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the World Bank’s Development Policy Operations (DPOs), as well as the consistently strong performance of remittances, which supports external sustainability. This overall assessment is contingent on: (i) progress on domestic resource mobilization and gradual but sustained fiscal consolidation over the medium term, (ii) no additional non-concessional borrowing, and (iii) enhanced financial oversight of SOEs. The DSA suggests that Comoros’ external debt is susceptible to export, revenue, and contingent liability shocks.  \n1 Comoros’ debt carrying capacity is assessed as medium, given a Composite Indicator of 2.84 based on April 2024 WEO projections and the 2023 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating of 2.7.  \n1. Public debt coverage includes all financing from the central bank to the Treasury (Text Table 1) . The coverage of external debt includes the entire public sector, namely external debt of the central government, the central bank borrowing on behalf of the government, and government-guaranteed debt of SOEs. Subnational government entities cannot take up external debt on their own, and they have not taken on domestic debt. SOEs cannot access the external debt market without a government guarantee. Domestic debt includes central government, SOE’s guaranteed debt from domestic banks, and on-lending from the Central Bank of Comoros (BCC) to the government, including statutory advances and loans connected to the IMF SDR allocation.  \n\n| Text Table 1. Union of the Comoros: Public Debt Coverage |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | Subsectors of the public sector |  | Sub-sectors covered |  |\n|  | 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 | Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt | X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X |  |\n| Sources: Comorian authorities, and IMF staff |  |  |  |  |\n\nText Table 2. Union of the Comoros: Coverage of the Contingent Liabilities Stress Test  \n\n|  | 1 The country's coverage of public debt | The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  | Default | Used for the\u003Cbr>analysis Reasons for d","cbCaiqTnxudjsRqu","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqTnxudjsRqu","pdf",790379,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Application of judgment and key drivers\n## Mitigating factors and required conditions\n## Debt coverage and contingent liabilities stress test\n## Public debt and external public debt evolution","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall conclusion of the Debt Sustainability Analysis for Comoros?\",\"answer\":\"External and overall debt are assessed as sustainable in the medium term, while the country remains at high risk of debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicator breaches or reaches thresholds, and when?\",\"answer\":\"The external debt service-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio is at the threshold in 2026.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is judgment applied to keep the DSA risk rating high despite baseline indicators mostly staying below thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"Recurrence of external arrears under the IMF ECF, low revenue and export bases, high uncertainty in the macroeconomic baseline, and weak institutional capacity for debt and liquidity management are key drivers.\"}]",1784489024,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-debt-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-debt-risk-assessment/111190/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall conclusion of the Debt Sustainability Analysis for Comoros?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"External and overall debt are assessed as sustainable in the medium term, while the country remains at high risk of debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which debt indicator breaches or reaches thresholds, and when?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The external debt service-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio is at the threshold in 2026.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why is judgment applied to keep the DSA risk rating high despite baseline indicators mostly staying below thresholds?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Recurrence of external arrears under the IMF ECF, low revenue and export bases, high uncertainty in the macroeconomic baseline, and weak institutional capacity for debt and liquidity management are key 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