[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111252-en":3,"doc-seo-111252-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111252,1649267921044,"Ava Thompson","https://us-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1800007509477c92dfb?_k=1782875107921204101",8,"Research & Report","Union of the Comoros - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Assessment of External Debt Distress Risk (High)","Union of the Comoros receives a high assessment for both external debt distress and overall public debt distress, despite improvements in some debt sustainability indicators versus the 2024 analysis. Persistent liquidity constraints and recurring, unresolved legacy external arrears drive the rating, alongside structural vulnerabilities from low revenue mobilization, limited fiscal buffers, and reliance on external inflows. Debt remains sustainable in the baseline under continued fiscal consolidation and highly concessional financing, but stress tests show threshold breaches in key external indicators.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) , and Costas Christou and S. Jay Peiris (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| UNION OF THE COMOROS: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nDespite some improvement in debt sustainability indicators (compared to the 2024 Debt Sustainability Analysis), Comoros’ risk of external and overall public debt distress remains assessed as high, mainly due to persistent liquidity constraints and recurrent as well as unresolved legacy external arrears.1 Nonetheless, debt is assessed to be sustainable, including over the medium term, contingent on continued fiscal consolidation and reliance on highly concessional financing.2 Under the baseline scenario, one of the four external debt burden indicators—the external debt service-to-exports ratio—breaches its threshold in 2029, albeit one-off and marginal. Under stress tests scenarios, two indicators—the present value of debt to exports ratio and debt service to exports ratio—breach their thresholds. Though consistent with a moderate external risk rating, staff apply judgment to maintain a high risk rating given: (i) structural liquidity vulnerabilities rooted in low revenue mobilization, no market access, limited fiscal buffers, and a dependency on external inflows; (ii) recurring external arrears, with successive breaches of the corresponding continuous quantitative performance criterion under IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF), reflecting persistent weaknesses in liquidity and debt management; and (iii) elevated macroeconomic and climate vulnerabilities.3 Mitigating factors include the authorities’ reform agenda supported by the ECF and World Bank Development  \n1 Unresolved legacy external arrears are in reference to BADEA, Exim India and Bpifrance.  \n2 Comoros’ debt carrying capacity is assessed as medium, given a Composite Indicator of 2.85 based on October 2025 WEO projections and the 2024 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating of 2.7.  \n3 Staff will revisit the factors warranting the application of judgement in the next DSA.  \nPolicy Operations (DPOs), as well as the consistently strong performance of remittances, which supports external sustainability. The overall assessment is contingent on: (i) progress in domestic resource mobilization and sustained fiscal consolidation, (ii) avoidance of additional non-concessional borrowing, and (iii) stronger financial oversight of SOEs. Stress tests suggest that Comoros’ external debt remains susceptible to export and contingent liability shocks.  \n1. Comoros’ public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt coverage includes all financing from the central bank to the Treasury (Text Table 1) . The coverage of external debt includes the entire public sector, namely external debt of the central government, the central bank borrowing on behalf of the government, and government-guaranteed debt of SOEs. Subnational government entities cannot take up external debt on their own, and they have not taken on domestic debt. SOEs cannot access the external debt market without a government guarantee. Domestic debt includes central government , SOE’s guaranteed debt from domestic banks, and on-lending from the Central Bank of Comoros (BCC) to the government, including statutory advances and loans connected to the IMF SDR allocation.  \n\n|  |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | Subsectors of the public sector |  | Sub-sectors covered |  |\n|  | 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 | Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>","cbCaibKuQ2YdL7EI","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibKuQ2YdL7EI","pdf",1272186,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment overview\n## Baseline sustainability and threshold breaches\n## Stress test results and judgment rationale\n## Mitigating factors and contingency conditions\n# Debt coverage and methodology notes","[{\"question\":\"Why is Comoros assessed as having high external and overall debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"The high risk reflects persistent liquidity constraints and recurrent, unresolved legacy external arrears, alongside structural vulnerabilities such as low revenue mobilization, limited market access, and dependence on external inflows.\"},{\"question\":\"Is Comoros’ debt sustainable under the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"Yes. Debt is assessed as sustainable over the medium term if fiscal consolidation continues and financing remains highly concessional.\"},{\"question\":\"Which external debt indicators breach thresholds and when?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, the external debt service-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold in 2029 (a one-off and marginal breach). Under stress tests, the present value of debt to exports and the debt service to exports ratios breach their thresholds.\"}]",1784489320,63,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-assessment-of-external-debt-distress-risk-high","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/union-of-the-comoros-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-assessment-of-external-debt-distress-risk-high/111252/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why is Comoros assessed as having high external and overall debt distress risk?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The high risk reflects persistent liquidity constraints and recurrent, unresolved legacy external arrears, alongside structural vulnerabilities such as low revenue mobilization, limited market access, and dependence on external inflows.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Is Comoros’ debt sustainable under the baseline scenario?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Yes. Debt is assessed as sustainable over the medium term if fiscal consolidation continues and financing remains highly concessional.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which external debt indicators breach thresholds and when?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, the external debt service-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold in 2029 (a one-off and marginal breach). Under stress tests, the present value of debt to exports and the debt service to exports ratios breach their thresholds.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]