[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-40211-en":3,"doc-seo-40211-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":83},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},40211,16904993612988,"Olivia Brown","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Understanding the Origins of Cape Town’s Water Crisis","Article in ICE Proceedings Civil Engineering (June 2017) examining how Cape Town’s water crisis escalated from rising dam risk and tightened restrictions to severe system storage decline. It reviews the timeline from 2015 low dam levels and 2016 Level 2 measures to January–February 2017 Level 3b restrictions, including impacts on gardens, targeted users, and municipal swimming pools. The analysis explains vulnerabilities beyond rainfall, emphasizing consumption trends and the role of the 2007 WCWSS Reconciliation Strategy and subsequent planning.","See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: [https://www. researchgate. net/publication/318060876](https://www. researchgate. net/publication/318060876)  \nUnderstanding CapeTown's Water Crisis  \nArticle in ICE Proceedings Civil Engineering · June 2017  \nCITATIONS READS  \n38 13,892  \n1 author:  \nMike Muller  \nUniversity of the Witwatersrand 90 PUBLICATIONS 1,652 CITATIONS  \nSEE PROFILE  \nSome of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:  \n water governance View project  \nAll content following this page was uploaded by Mike Muller on 01 January 2018.  \nThe user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.  \nUnderstanding the origins of  \nCape Town’s water crisis  \nThe water crisis that has confronted Cape Town this summer should be of concern to all professional engineers in the field of water management. How was such a critical situation allowed to develop in one of South Africa’s largest cities? What can we learn from this process?  \nProf Mike Muller Pr Eng FSAICE  \nVisiting Adjunct Professor University of the Witwatersrand School of Governance [mikemuller1949@gmail.com](mikemuller1949@gmail.com)  \nSOME BACKGROUND  \nCape Town is facing a water shortage that has built up over the past two years. Already, in 2015, concerns were raised when it was realised that dam levels were uncomfortably low after belowaverage winter rainfall in 2014/15 . Level 2 restrictions were introduced on 1 January 2016, aiming at a 20% reduction in use, but not for agriculture.  \nIn January 2017, with the Cape Town system’s six dams reported to be at 42%(down from 51% at the same time last year), the Metro Municipality announced the introduction of stringent Level 3b restrictions from 1 February, targeting a 30% reduction in use. Gardens, sports fields and parks could only be watered twice a week, using a bucket or watering can; restrictions applied to users with their own boreholes; the highest 20 000 water users were to be targeted with “punitive measures…such as fines for transgressions or the installation of water restriction devices if they do not reduce their usage by 20%…”; and municipal swimming pools were closed.  \nThe situation did not improve, despite the restrictions. By the end of April, this was graphically demonstrated when storage in Theewaterskloof, the largest dam in the system, fell to only 17.5% compared to 31% in 2016 and 53.9% in April 2015. Capetonians were now counting the days of water available to them – on World Water Day (22 March this year) they were told that, with the system standing at 28.6%, there were officially just 101 days’ supply left. By 29 May system storage had fallen to 22% .  \nThe restrictions were sensible measures. While decisions on restrictions are best made as soon as the official rainy season has  \nIn January 2017, with the Cape Town system’s six dams reported to be at 42%(down from 51% at the same time last year), the Metro Municipality announced the introduction of stringent Level 3b restrictions from 1 February, targeting a 30% reduction in use.  \nProf Muller was Director-General of the then Department of Water Affairs and Forestry from 1997 to 2005 and, while serving on the National Planning Commission, was part of the team who prepared the National Development Plan 2030.  \nended, the system first has to be analysed and administrative requirements met before restrictions can be introduced.  \nBut why had the city reached the stage where its supplies were so vulnerable? Although the SAWS (South African Weather Service) rainfall network has continued to deteriorate, its seasonal rainfall estimates suggest that the 2014/15 and 2015/16 seasons were not far below normal, and only in the second half of the 2016/17 rainfall season did rains fall below 75% of average (see Figure 1). While much of Cape Town’s water comes from relatively small catchments which are vulnerable to local dry spells, the seasonal estimates from 2010 to 2016 show that lim","cbCairG68RVkTzrj","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairG68RVkTzrj","pdf",2593818,2,1,7,"English","en",105,"# Some Background\n## 2015–2016 risk signals and Level 2 restrictions\n## January–May 2017 Level 3b measures and storage decline\n# Understanding What Has Happened\n## 2007 WCWSS Reconciliation Strategy and demand planning\n## Beyond rainfall: consumption and governance tracking","[{\"question\":\"Why was limited rainfall not the only cause of the crisis?\",\"answer\":\"The document states that seasonal rainfall estimates were not far below normal for 2014/15 and 2015/16, with rainfall only falling below 75% of average later in 2016/17. 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