[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-81873-en":3,"doc-seo-81873-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},81873,2336464648322,"Aria","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2200025388227c56fec?_k=1778556882303663488",8,"Research & Report","Uncertainty Quantification Study of a Re-entry Breakup","Study models breakup-recorder behavior during atmospheric re-entry, treating the recorder as a rigid body exposed to hypersonic aerothermodynamic loads while simultaneously accounting for collision dynamics with components of a demising container vehicle. The re-entry of the Edoardo Amaldi Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV3) with the Re-Entry Breakup Recorder (REBR4) is analyzed after deterministic dynamics exploration, followed by uncertainty quantification over initial spacecraft state, recorder detachment conditions, and fragmentation states. Results support a detachment-before-main-breakup scenario over high-rotation alternative conditions.","arXiv :2607 .032 12v 1 [ cs .CE] 3 Jul 2026  \nUncertainty Quantification Study of a Re-entry Breakup  \nTommy Williamson∗  \nUniversity of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, G1 1XJ  \nBeatriz Jilete†  \nGMVat ESA ESAC, Villanueva de la Cañada, Spain, 28692  \nEmma Stevenson‡  \nIMS Space Consultancy at ESA ESTEC, Netherlands, 2200 AG  \nStijn Lemmens§  \nEuropean Space Agency, ESTEC, Netherlands, 2200 AG  \nMassimiliano Vasile¶ , Marco Fossati‖  \nUniversity of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, G1 1XJ  \nThe uncertainty associated with breakup events that occur during atmospheric re-entry is severe. Limited attempts to gain a better knowledge of this environment have included the use of breakup recorder-type sensor capsules that are designed to escape the demising debris cloud and survive in order to transmit data. This work models a breakup recorder undergoing this process as a rigid body experiencing hypersonic aerothermodynamic loads alongside collision dynamics with components of the demising container vehicle. The re-entry of the Edoardo Amaldi Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV3) and the recorder placed on board, the Re-Entry Breakup Recorder 4 (REBR4) is studied in the present work. After a deterministic exploration of the nature of the dynamics of the problem, uncertainty quantification is performed to investigate the effects of initial spacecraft state, REBR detachment conditions and spacecraft fragmentation states. From this data, inferences about the nature of the real re-entry event indicate that detachment of the recorder from the cargo bay prior  \n to main breakup events is more  likely than the alternate hypothesis of the container  \n∗ Corresponding Author, PhD Student, Aerospace Centre of Excellence, University of Strathclyde, [tommy.williamson@strath.ac.uk](tommy.williamson@strath.ac.uk), Student Member AIAA  \n†Space Debris Monitoring Systems Engineer, Space Debris Office, GMV at European Space Agency  \n‡Space Debris Engineer, Space Debris Office, IMS Space Consultancy at European Space Agency  \n§ Senior Space Debris Mitigation Analyst, Space Debris Office, European Space Agency  \n¶ Professor, Aerospace Centre of Excellence, University of Strathclyde, Senior Member AIAA  \n‖Professor, Aerospace Centre of Excellence, University of Strathclyde, Member AIAA  \nvehicle experiencing high rotation rates.  \nNomenclature  \n􀁖 = stabilisation tuning parameter ®d = intersection depths vector Δ􀁃 = time step  \n􀀘􀀿 = pressure coefficient  \n􀀘 􀁧 = shear coefficient  \n􀀴 = coefficient of restitution  \n􀀟 = constraint Jacobian Kn = Knudsen Number  \n􀀻 = lower bound ℓref = reference length ®􀁟 = impulse vector  \n􀀼 = number of collision contacts 􀀢 −1 = inverse mass matrix  \n􀁠 = mean  \n􀀽 = number of colliding bodies  = local normal  \n􀁬® = rotational velocity vector  \n􀁦 = standard deviation  = translational velocity vector  \nI. Introduction  \nAtmospheric destructive re-entry is an extremely complex event that couples different physical processes  \nand bears significant uncertainties[1] . Spacecraft breakup during re-entry, alongside the dynamicsand aerothermodynamics of the resulting cloud of debris, are key drivers of on-ground risk due to re-entry. When considering compliance verification procedures of spacecraft design, robust estimation of the casualty risk presented by uncontrolled re-entry of a satellite is vital to current and future sustainable use of space. Especially as the rate of satellite re-entry continues to accelerate yearly[2, 3] . The ability to appropriately  \ndesign and plan the demise of a satellite according to the Design-For-Demise (D4D) guidelines [4, 5] can significantly reduce the casualty risk and it has now become a cornerstone of any new spacecraft and satellite mission. As such, the ability to make robust and reliable predictions of breakup events and the associated dynamics of the debris clouds is an area of great research interest and importance [6–8] .  \nSignificant efforts have been put forward to reduce and to quantify the","cbCaioUMjcJOSxRg","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaioUMjcJOSxRg","pdf",38776787,4,1,32,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## Modeling Approach\n## Uncertainty Quantification\n## Re-entry Case Study and Inference","[{\"question\":\"What phenomenon does the study model during atmospheric re-entry?\",\"answer\":\"The study models breakup events involving a re-entry breakup recorder, capturing both hypersonic aerothermodynamic loading and rigid-body collision dynamics with the demising container components.\"},{\"question\":\"Which aspects are varied during the uncertainty quantification?\",\"answer\":\"Uncertainty quantification investigates effects of initial spacecraft state, recorder detachment conditions, and spacecraft fragmentation states.\"},{\"question\":\"What conclusion does the analysis draw about the real re-entry event timing?\",\"answer\":\"Inferences indicate recorder detachment prior to main breakup events is more likely than the alternate high-rotation container-based hypothesis.\"}]","Uncertainty Quantification Study of a Re-entry Breakup | 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phenomenon does the study model during atmospheric re-entry?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The study models breakup events involving a re-entry breakup recorder, capturing both hypersonic aerothermodynamic loading and rigid-body collision dynamics with the demising container components.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which aspects are varied during the uncertainty quantification?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Uncertainty quantification investigates effects of initial spacecraft state, recorder detachment conditions, and spacecraft fragmentation states.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What conclusion does the analysis draw about the real re-entry event timing?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Inferences indicate recorder detachment prior to main breakup events is more likely than the alternate high-rotation container-based 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