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Despite extensive efforts to manage uncertainty, research has paid limited attention to systematically representing, analyzing, and mitigating uncertainty propagation and interaction (UPI). The paper proposes Uncertainty Flow Diagrams as a notation capturing key UPI aspects, and validates it through an adaptive news site infrastructure case study.",{"@graph":69,"@context":116},[70,84,99],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/uncertainty-flow-diagrams-towards-a-systematic-representation-of-uncertainty-propagation-and-interaction-in-adaptive-systems/657286/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"author":86,"headline":65,"publisher":89,"fileFormat":92,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":93,"datePublished":93,"encodingFormat":92,"isAccessibleForFree":94,"interactionStatistic":95},"DigitalDocument",{"name":87,"@type":88},"dbqoiu","Person",{"url":74,"name":90,"@type":91},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-26",true,{"@type":96,"interactionType":97,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":98},"ViewAction",{"@type":100,"mainEntity":101},"FAQPage",[102,108,112],{"name":103,"@type":104,"acceptedAnswer":105},"Why is uncertainty propagation and interaction (UPI) important in adaptive systems?","Question",{"text":106,"@type":107},"Uncertainty sources in adaptive systems are often not independent, and their propagation and interactions can affect goal attainment in subtle and unpredictable ways, so UPI must be managed as a first-class systems development issue.","Answer",{"name":109,"@type":104,"acceptedAnswer":110},"What is the main contribution of the paper?",{"text":111,"@type":107},"The paper introduces Uncertainty Flow Diagrams, a notation designed to capture key aspects of uncertainty propagation and interaction (UPI) and to support systematic representation and reasoning.",{"name":113,"@type":104,"acceptedAnswer":114},"How does the paper address the gap in existing approaches?",{"text":115,"@type":107},"It argues that current work focuses more on homogeneous uncertainties, while heterogeneous uncertainties in adaptive/self-adaptive contexts lack systematic unified treatment for representation, analysis, and mitigation.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":118,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":90,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":120,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":122,"site_id":62},657286,1792976921,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":125},{"doc_id":122,"user_id":126,"nickname":87,"user_avatar":127,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":128,"file_id":129,"file_url":130,"file_type":131,"file_size":132,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":34,"language":133,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":134,"faqs":135,"seo_title":136,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":123,"read_time":137},3985747862462,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2","J. Cámara, S. Hahner, D. Perez-Palacin, A. Vallecillo, M. Acosta, N. Bencomo, R. Calinescu, and S. Gerasimou, \"Uncertainty Flow Diagrams: Towards a Systematic Representation of Uncertainty Propagation and Interaction in Adaptive Systems,\" in 19th International Conference on Software Engineering for Adaptive and Self-Managing Systems (SEAMS '24), IEEE/ACM, 2024, doi: 10.1145/3643915.3644084 .  \nUncertainty Flow Diagrams: Towards a Systematic Representation of Uncertainty Propagation and Interaction in Adaptive Systems  \nJavier Cámara  \n[jcamara@uma.es](jcamara@uma.es)  \nITIS Software, Universidad de Málaga Spain  \nAntonio Vallecillo  \n[av@uma.es](av@uma.es)  \nITIS Software, Universidad de Málaga Spain  \nSebastian Hahner  \n[sebastian.hahner@kit.edu](sebastian.hahner@kit.edu)[ ](sebastian.hahner@kit.edu)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Germany  \nMaribel Acosta  \n[maribel.acosta@tum.de](maribel.acosta@tum.de)[ ](maribel.acosta@tum.de)Technical University of Munich Germany  \nDiego Perez-Palacin  \n[diego.perez@lnu.se](diego.perez@lnu.se)[ ](diego.perez@lnu.se)Linnaeus University Sweden  \nNelly Bencomo  \n[nelly.bencomo@durham.ac.uk](nelly.bencomo@durham.ac.uk)[ ](nelly.bencomo@durham.ac.uk)Durham University United Kingdom  \nRadu Calinescu  \n[radu.calinescu@york.ac.uk](radu.calinescu@york.ac.uk)[ ](radu.calinescu@york.ac.uk)University of York United Kingdom  \nSimos Gerasimou  \n[simos.gerasimou@york.ac.uk](simos.gerasimou@york.ac.uk)[ ](simos.gerasimou@york.ac.uk)University of York United Kingdom  \nABSTRACT  \nSources of uncertainty in adaptive systems are rarely independent, and their interaction can affect the attainment of system goals in unpredictable ways. Despite ample work on “taming” uncertainty, the research community has devoted little attention to the systematic representation, analysis, and mitigation of uncertainty propagation and interaction (UPI) in adaptive systems. To address this oversight, we introduce Uncertainty Flow Diagrams, a notation that captures key UPI aspects. We demonstrate the use and benefits of our novel [notation on Znn.com](notation on Znn.com), an adaptive news site infrastructure.  \nKEYWORDS  \nUncertainty propagation, Uncertainty interaction, Modeling notations, Flow Diagrams  \nACM Reference Format:  \nJavier Cámara, Sebastian Hahner, Diego Perez-Palacin, Antonio Vallecillo, Maribel Acosta, Nelly Bencomo, Radu Calinescu, and Simos Gerasimou.  \n2024. Uncertainty Flow Diagrams: Towards a Systematic Representation of Uncertainty Propagation and Interaction in Adaptive Systems. In 19th International Symposium on Software Engineering for Adaptive and SelfManaging Systems (SEAMS’24), April 15–16, 2024, Lisbon, AA, Portugal. ACM, New York, NY, USA, 7 pages. [https://doi.org/10.1145/3643915.3644084](https://doi.org/10.1145/3643915.3644084)  \n1 INTRODUCTION  \nSources of uncertainty in adaptive systems are rarely independent, and their propagation and interactions can affect the attainment of system goals in subtle and often unpredictable ways [10] . As such, the management of uncertainty propagation and interactions (UPI)  \nPermission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission [and/or a fee. Request permissions from permissions@acm.org](and/or a fee. Request permissions from permissions@acm.org).  \nSEAMS’24, April 15–16, 2024, Lisbon, AA, Portugal  \n© 2024 Copyright held by the owner/author(s) . Publication rights licensed to ACM. ACM ISBN 979-8-4007-0585-4/24/04. . . $15.00  \n[https://doi.org/10.1145/3643915.3644084](https://doi.org/10.1145/3643","cbCaidih6fUiM97H","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidih6fUiM97H","pdf",896991,"English","# Introduction\n## Uncertainty sources and their interaction in adaptive systems\n## Related work on uncertainty propagation\n## Heterogeneous uncertainty challenges in self-adaptation\n## Motivation for systematic UPI approaches","[{\"question\":\"Why is uncertainty propagation and interaction (UPI) important in adaptive systems?\",\"answer\":\"Uncertainty sources in adaptive systems are often not independent, and their propagation and interactions can affect goal attainment in subtle and unpredictable ways, so UPI must be managed as a first-class systems development issue.\"},{\"question\":\"What is the main contribution of the paper?\",\"answer\":\"The paper introduces Uncertainty Flow Diagrams, a notation designed to capture key aspects of uncertainty propagation and interaction (UPI) and to support systematic representation and reasoning.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the paper address the gap in existing approaches?\",\"answer\":\"It argues that current work focuses more on homogeneous uncertainties, while heterogeneous uncertainties in adaptive/self-adaptive contexts lack systematic unified treatment for representation, analysis, and mitigation.\"}]","Uncertainty Flow Diagrams: Towards a Systematic Representation of Uncertainty Propagation and Interaction in Adaptive Systems | PDF",18]