[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109890-en":3,"doc-seo-109890-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109890,13056703019662,"Evangeline","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/be000253a8e92610077?_k=1778726343310543188",8,"Research & Report","Uganda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020","Uganda’s debt remains sustainable under a Covid-19 macro-framework, with low risk for external and overall debt distress. Pandemic effects through supply disruptions and weaker commodity exports, remittances, tourism, and capital inflows reduce current and financial account balances, while fiscal deficits are expected to widen and be financed by new debt. Although baseline debt burden paths stay below indicative thresholds, stress tests push multiple indicators close to breaches. Debt service-to-revenue stays elevated, highlighting vulnerability as revenues decline. In FY2019/20, financing needs rely on reserve drawdowns, IMF Rapid Credit Facility support, and World Bank assistance, alongside potential G-20 debt service relief and bilateral creditor engagement.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nUGANDA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nMay 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nAnd the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Annalisa Fedelino and Chris Lane (IMF)  \n\n| Uganda: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress: | Low 1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nUganda’s debt is sustainable, with a low risk of external and overall debt distress under the Covid pandemic macro-framework.2 So far, the impact of the pandemic on Uganda’s economy is felt through supply chain disruptions; and lower commodity export prices, remittances, tourism, and capital inflows leading to a deterioration in the current and financial accounts. In addition, as a response to the crisis, the fiscal position is expected to deteriorate and be financed with debt. Updates with respect to economic impact ofCovid-are rapidly evolving, and risks are tilted to the downside. As a result, the debt-to-GDP burden trajectories are higher than anticipated in the last Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) despite the recent rebasing of the national accounts that have increased nominal GDP. All external debt and total public debt burden trajectories remain below their respective indicative thresholds under the baseline scenarios. However, the higher debt burden has let multiple indicators to nearly breach their indicative thresholds under the stress test scenario. Debt service-to-revenue remains elevated and indicate heightened vulnerabilities, especially as budget revenues decline due to the pandemic. In FY2019/20, financing needs are expected to be fully met through reserves drawdown, use of Fund credit under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), and World Bank financial support. In addition, the Ugandan authorities are interested in seeking debt service relief under the G-20 Covid-19 debt service relief initiative. They have initiated steps to contact their bilateral creditors, and have noted their intention to adhere to the needed commitments. Large near-term external financing needs are assumed to be covered by drawing down existing reserve buffers, IMF resources, World Bank resources, and resources from other development partners still under discussion. Considering the country’s significant vulnerability to shocks, sound fiscal management over the medium term remains critical to ensure fiscal sustainability.  \n1 Uganda’s Composite Indicator signals a strong debt-carrying capacity based on the October 2019 WEO and CPIA 2019.  \n2 This DSA updates the joint World Bank-IMF analysis of May 2019 (2019 Article IV consultation) using the post COVID pandemic macro-framework as the new baseline. The debt coverage remains the same as in the 2019 DSA, and includes central, state and local governments plus social security, central bank and government guaranteed debt.  \nTable 1. Uganda: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2016/17–2029/30  \n (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)   \nActual Projections  \n2016/17  \n2017/18  \n2018/19  \n2019/20  \n2020/21  \n2021/22  \n2022/23  \n2023/24  \n2024/25  \n2029/30  \nExternal debt (nominal) 1/  \nof which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG)  \n35.9 37.6 39.8 46.9 49.6 50.4 50.0 47.4 43.8 34.8  \n21.8 24.4 26.0 32.0 33.9 34.5 34.7 33.1 31.1 27.1  \nChange in external debt 1.6 1.7 2.2 7.1 2.7 0.8 -0.4 -2.6 -3.6 0.6  \nIdentified net debt-creating flows -0.9 0.2 2.6 6.1 4.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.2 -5.4 -0.4  \nNon-interest current account deficit 2.6 4.7 7.6 8.9 6.9 3.5 2.9 1.6 0.0 0.0  \nDeficit in balance of goods and services -0.6 0.7 2.3 3.6 2.5 -0.4 -0.9 -1.6 -4.2 -7.8  \nExports 16.2 16.5 17.6 13.6 14.1 15.8 16.1 16.1 19.2 20.9  \nImports 15.6 17.2 19.","cbCaiqu2VRRiNuBm","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqu2VRRiNuBm","pdf",341891,4,1,7,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Debt Distress Risk Assessment\n## Covid-19 Impacts and Macroeconomic Context\n## Debt Burden Trajectories and Stress Test Indicators\n## Financing Plan for FY2019/20 and Policy Implications\n## Key Assumptions and Sustainability Indicators","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed overall risk of debt distress for Uganda under the Covid-19 framework?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as low, including low risk for both external and overall debt distress under the Covid-19 macro-framework.\"},{\"question\":\"How did the Covid-19 pandemic affect Uganda’s economy and debt outlook?\",\"answer\":\"Impacts include supply chain disruptions and lower export prices, remittances, tourism, and capital inflows, leading to deterioration in current and financial accounts. Fiscal positions are also expected to deteriorate and be financed with debt.\"},{\"question\":\"Why do some indicators nearly breach thresholds despite the baseline outlook staying below them?\",\"answer\":\"Under stress test scenarios, the higher debt burden lifts multiple indicators close to their indicative thresholds. Debt service-to-revenue remains elevated, signaling heightened vulnerabilities as budget revenues decline.\"}]","Uganda - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020 | PDF",1784482886,18,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"uganda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/uganda-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020/109890/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the assessed overall risk of debt distress for Uganda under the Covid-19 framework?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as low, including low risk for both external and overall debt distress under the Covid-19 macro-framework.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How did the Covid-19 pandemic affect Uganda’s economy and debt outlook?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Impacts include supply chain disruptions and lower export prices, remittances, tourism, and capital inflows, leading to deterioration in current and financial accounts. Fiscal positions are also expected to deteriorate and be financed with debt.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Why do some indicators nearly breach thresholds despite the baseline outlook staying below them?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Under stress test scenarios, the higher debt burden lifts multiple indicators close to their indicative thresholds. Debt service-to-revenue remains elevated, signaling heightened vulnerabilities as budget revenues decline.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]